NFL Week 15 Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 14 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record 17-17-1

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The public looks like it’s panicking over Dallas’ ugly 10-7 loss to the Giants last week on primetime, as well as a few subpar performances in a row from rookie QB Dak Prescott. That’s what Pregame.com is showing at least, with 83 percent of the action on Tampa Bay. Not so fast.

The Bucs rank just 21st in the NFL against the run, and in case you haven’t noticed, the Cowboys can run it down pretty much any team’s throat. The Bucs’ defense is solid, but it’s biggest weakness happens to be Dallas’ overwhelming strength. Ezekiel Elliott has run for 100+ yards six times, more than 110 yards five times, and more than 80 yards in all but one matchup. The Bucs’ five-game winning streak is no fluke, because several of the teams they’ve taken down are playoff-bound, but this matchup is just not favorable to them.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Eagles appear to be imploding, but they’re not terrible. They’re more middle of the pack, and should be able to keep things close with the Ravens, despite what 89 percent of bettors think.

Philadelphia may not have the league’s best defense anymore, but it still ranks third in the NFL per Football Outsiders against the pass, which happens to make Baltimore dangerous. This year the Ravens have looked their best when Joe Flacco is winging it deep, but this week he will likely have to rely more on Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West out of the backfield. That can be plenty to get a win, but it’s unlikely to lead to a wide margin of victory.  

Cleveland Brows (+10) over BUFFALO BILLS

I understand that it’s hard to trust the Browns, but do you really think it is wise to lay 10 points with the Bills? Let’s think about what Cleveland must do in order to get their first win of the year. They’ll need to pound the rock with RB Isaiah Crowell, and possibly with QB Robert Griffin III. The Bills, despite being led by defensive mastermind Rex Ryan, have had a less-than-stellar season on defense, especially vs. the run (29th per Football Outsiders).

Cleveland certainly looks the part of an 0-16 team, and just fewer than 80 percent of bettors are banking on the Bills to win in a blowout. That is a signal to go in the opposite direction. Need more?

Buffalo has given up 180+ yards on the ground in two of their last four games, 100+ in seven different matchups, and are surrendering an average of 187 yards over the last three weeks.