NFL Week 16: Best Bets Against The Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 16 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record 18-19-1

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders are fighting hard for the No. 1 seed, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Colts are also fighting for the division title, but in truth, the Raiders are among the worst teams they can face right now. The Raiders have a proficient passing game, despite Amari Cooper murdering fantasy teams over the past few weeks, because they have plenty of other effective receivers and a breakout QB in Derek Carr. They can also run all over a bad front seven, which the Colts have, with Latavius Murray.

Beyond all that though, the real nightmare for the Colts is Khalil Mack against their bad offensive line. Andrew Luck is among the most sacked QBs in the NFL and Khalil Mack is going to ruin his day.

Denver Broncos (+3) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is a slugfest matchup that you might think of as a stay-away, but I think the Chiefs are more suspect than many realize. They are going to find scoring on Denver difficult in cold weather, and they’re going to find making big plays in the passing game damn near impossible.

Defensively, they thrive when they can turn over their opponent, and Trevor Siemian has proven pretty careful with the ball. Alex Smith would be proud of a number of Siemian’s performances. Finally, the Broncos are simply the more desperate team, and they have the defensive advantage. This is less analytical than I usually am, but my gut feels strongly that the Broncos are the pick.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) over Detroit Lions

I know I backed them last week and they just missed covering the spread, but this week I’m still feeling like they’re going to return to covering spreads. Wouldn’t a complete collapse to blow the NFC North be so quintessentially Lions?

Detroit’s defense has people believing, but don’t be fooled. Despite holding five straight opponents to fewer than 20 points, those opponents have been the Jaguars, Vikings, Saints, Bears and Giants. Dallas is a much scarier offense, and Football Outsiders is not fooled. They continue to rank the Lions as the 31st defense despite the solid point totals.