NFL Playoff Picks: Divisional Round Bets Against The Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Since the slate is significantly more sparse, I’ll make a pick for each game, and offer a recommendation as to whether you should place real dollars and cents on it.

These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record 20-20-1

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

The Raiders went from Super Bowl contenders to afterthoughts when QB Derek Car went down with a broken leg. That’s probably a correct assumption, but it does NOT mean they can’t take down the Texans.

Houston is home and has a solid defense, but that D’s strength is its pass rush. It’s unlikely the Raiders will be passing that much with rookie Connor Cook running the show. The Texans are much more mediocre against the run (17th per Football Outsiders), and Oakland has a workhorse in Latavius Murray. Between the running game, and Cook having stud receivers (Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree), plus a reliable third banana (Seth Roberts) to throw to, the Raiders should be able to get to 20 points.

That is something the Texans might not be able to do. We’re focusing on Oakland’s QB woes, but the Texans are without their “starter” Tom Savage, an ill-equipped replacement for Brock Osweiler, who makes a lot of money but stinks. Osweiler has been pressed back into action, and will be under a lot of pressure to start off well. If LB Khalil Mack gets to him early, it’s a stretch to think Houston will be able to move the ball.

DON’T BET: While all this makes sense, it’s two teams with terrible QBs going at it. This is a stay-away, unless you hate the QB situation enough to bet the under.

Detroit Lions (+8) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I know, I know. I’m craaazzzy right? Seattle is at home and they’re going to dominate a fluky Lions team that rode crazy comebacks all year and is finally showing its warts. That’s fair analysis, and I do think Seattle will win this game. But why am I laying more than a touchdown against Detroit, a team that has only lost by more than six points once all year, to a 13-win Cowboys team?

The Seahawks are a paper tiger this year; they’re offense is suspect thanks to an offensive line comprised of inanimate objects. They are without their most dynamic threat, WR Tyler Lockett, on offense AND on special teams. And they’re without the heat and soul of their defense, S Earl Thomas. In the final four weeks of the season this vaunted defense gave up 38 to the Packers, three to the Rams (I’m not counting this), 34 to the Cardinals, and 23 to the 49ers. Yes, 23. That’s like 45 to a normal team.

The Lions have their problems, mainly QB Matthew Stafford’s injured throwing hand, but they have the tools to keep it close. WR Golden Tate is as competitive as they come and he shows up in big games. Seattle ranks 30th against No. 2 receivers; that means the CB opposite Richard Sherman can’t stop anyone. Line Tate up there, and he will wreak havoc. Could Russell Wilson put on a show and lead a blowout? Sure. But despite the NFL’s worst defense per Football Outsiders Detroit keeps it close. Why stop now?

BET IT: Whenever you get more than a touchdown against a team with clear and obvious flaws, jump on it.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins

The Steelers aren’t quite as good as they’ve been hyped this year, and the Dolphins are a team I liked preseason, and proved they are solid. But with all that said, I hate this spot for the ‘Fins.

Miami’s record against above-.500 teams is 1-5. They’ve lost to the Patriots by a combined 28 points, and they were bludgeoned by the Ravens by 32. They even got knocked out by the Titans by 13. There’s talent here, but it’s all in the skill positions. This team hasn’t learned how to handle equal or superior opposition, and it’s hard to believe they’ll suddenly come around on the road against a future Hall of Fame QB with elite weaponry surrounding him.

Ben Roethlisberger will have the use of WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell in this game, and Bell will be especially crucial vs. the 22nd-ranked run defense of Miami. The Dolphins were also bitten by the injury bug, as they’ll be without their starting QB, Ryan Tannehill. Matt Moore has been surprisingly competent in his place, but he’s been a career backup for a reason.

DON’T BET: The spread is huge, and if Jay Ajayi goes off for the Dolphins, it could be close. I believe the Steelers are better, but it’s poor value to give 10.5.

New York Giants (+5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

This is the best game of the week, and it’s tough as hell to call. No team is hotter than the Packers, who coincidentally have the NFL’s best current QB (Aaron Rodgers) and the 2016 touchdown king at WR (Jordy Nelson).

On the other hand, the Giants have the best defense in the postseason, and boast elite CBs (Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) as well as a superstar safety (Landon Collins).

In this case, the spread makes it easier. The Giants are the pick, because it’s difficult to make an argument for the Giants being more than a field goal worse than Green Bay when they won 11 games and the Packers won 10. Eli Manning is not as good as Aaron Rodgers, but he’s proven he can float at the elite level when its postseason time. And the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr., who is primed to scorch the Packers’ secondary, which ranks 28th vs. No. 1 receivers.

BET IT: By picking the G-Men, you get the points, the superior defense, the and the biggest playmaker in the matchup. It’s scary to go against Aaron Rodgers at home, but if you’re going to do that, it’s nice to have Eli Manning in that fight.