NFL Week 13 Picks: Best Bets Against the Spread
Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 13 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.
Season Record 15-14-1
Houston Texans (+6.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers are getting a line bump after Aaron Rodgers’ flawless decimation of the Eagles last week in a must-win, but buying into that fully would require ignoring the rest of Green Bay’s season. Simply put, the Packers are high-upside when Rodgers is on fire, but for much of the year they have struggled.
Houston defends the pass better than they do the run, which is bad news for the Pack, who have no running game whatsoever sans Eddie Lacy. Beyond that, there’s a less football-nerd reason why I’m throwing this pick out there – the public.
Per Pregame.com, 84 percent of the action on this game is on the Packers. If you are buying last week as the best version of Green Bay, you’re likely thinking this game will be closer than a touchdown. If so, Houston is the choice.
Detroit Lions (+6.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
If you’ve paid attention to the Lions, you know they play tight games. In fact, not a single game the Lions have played this year has been decided by more than seven points. So why, then, would you pick against them getting 6.5 points?
Detroit has a very good offense led by Matthew Stafford, who was generating some MVP buzz at one point. New Orleans has an atrocious defense; even if the Lions have slowed offensively, this pathetic Saints D should be an elixir. This game has shootout written all over it, and while I expect the Saints to in, it’s unlikely they win by a ton of points.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3.5) over Denver Broncos
We arrive at my third underdog pick this week, and I won’t lie to you, there’s little justification for it beyond the massive betting action the other way. 86 percent of the action is on the Broncos, which is simply too high. The Broncos are not the same team that won the Super Bowl; their run defense is in the bottom third of the NFL, and QB Trevor Siemian is currently in a walking boot. If Paxton Lynch is under center, do not expect much from this offense.
Also, the Jaguars’ defense has quietly improved as the season wears on. They’re smack in the middle of the pack right now, which is more than good enough against a low-power offense like Denver’s. I’m not in love with this pick, but there’s solid backing to it, and it’s usually wise to run counter to this big a wave.