Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev: Betting Odds, What To Know
Tonight, the best fight in boxing will be on pay-per-view. This fight lacks any of the sizzle that was generated by Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao last year, but it’s the much better matchup. When Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KO) takes on Andre “S.O.G.” Ward (30-0, 16 KO) in Las Vegas, it will cause a shift in boxing’s pound-for-pound rankings, and potentially elevate the winner into mainstream stardom.
Pretty much, there’s a lot on the line. So I’m going to let you know what will matter the most in this fight, and who to put your money on if you’re so inclined.
First, a little bit of info for each fighter.
Ward: 6'0, 71 inch reach, WBA Super Middleweight Title
Kovalev: 6'0, 72 1/2 inch reach, WBA, IBF, WBO Light Heavyweight Titles
Skill vs. Power
This has been a prevailing narrative about this fight, but it’s not totally accurate. Yes, Ward is considered arguably the most skilled fighter in boxing, while Kovalev is unquestionably one of the most powerful punchers. But that does not tell the whole tale.
Kovalev is not a mindless slugger, despite what his KO percentage (84%) might indicate. He showed this in his highest-profile fight against Bernard Hopkins in 2013; he dropped Hopkins in Round 1, but Hopkins is such a wily veteran that he didn’t taste the canvas again. Normally, that’s code for B-Hop stunk out the joint to a points win. Instead, Kovalev repeatedly trapped and pummeled one of the greatest fighters ever to a borderline shutout victory.
Ward has an edge in speed, and he may indeed have more tools in his toolbox than Kovalev, but if Ward tries to spend 12 rounds on his bicycle he will have a rude awakening.
Recent Competition
Ward’s record is ever-so-slightly better than Kovalev’s since Krusher has a draw, but Ward has long been near the top of every pound-for-pound list while Kovalev has had to earn respect as a boxer, rather than a puncher. This made some sense early in his career.
Ward has some really impressive wins; he moved up in weight and knocked out Chad Dawson in 2012 when Dawson was considered an elite fighter. He dismantled several top super middleweights in the Super Six tournament, which culminated in a one-sided clinic against Carl Froch in 2011. Notice the trend? Since the Dawson win, Ward has only fought four times, and none of those fights have come against elite opponents.
Since 2013 Kovalev, on the other hand, 11 times, winning 10 of those by knockout. Now he hasn’t fought Hall of Famers each time out, but he’s knocked out Jean Pascal twice, beaten Bernard Hopkins to a pulp, and been blatantly avoided by the other champion in this division, Adonis Stevenson. Ward is ultra-skilled, but he hasn’t been in with top-level opposition in a long time.
Weight
This fight is taking place at light heavyweight, so while Ward has been slowly building up to feel natural at 175 lbs, he hasn’t faced power like Kovalev’s. Ward’s two fights against Sullivan Barrera and Alexander Brand, both snoozefests (I swear I like Ward, just calling it how I see it), showcased S.O.G. repeatedly cracking his opponents with clean punches that failed to get them out early. Sergey Kovalev has a strong chin, and so I’m having a hard time believing Ward will be able to damage him significantly, and earn enough respect to stop Krusher from coming forward.
What About Isaac Chilemba?
Isaac Chilemba was Kovalev’s most recent opponent, who went the distance in a unanimous decision loss and made Kovalev look less intimidating than usual. Chilemba fought like a poor man’s Andre Ward, and in that fight Kovalev’s emotionless exterior showed cracks. He got frustrated, looked a hair slow, and allowed himself to be hit a lot. One might watch that and extrapolate that to think that style, mixed with Ward’s talent, might spell doom for Kovalev.
I think of it differently. Kovalev fought Chilemba as a sort of tune-up for this purpose. He got the rounds in knowing he may have to go all the way with S.O.G., and he learned what holes he’ll have to close to avoid looking slow and ineffectual.
The Odds (Sportsbook)
Sergey Kovalev (+110)
Andre Ward (-140)
I think you know where I’m going. Kovalev is the bigger and stronger man, who has faced tougher competition, been more active, and has a style that takes longer to age. He is a veteran of the light heavyweight division, while Ward has logged just two bouts at 175 lbs. Kovalev also is viewed as the puncher, while Ward is viewed as the defensive master; if casual bettors are looking at this, and thinking about Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, they’re thinking that Kovalev will try and try but never truly hurt Ward. They’re also probably thinking “I will not buy this fight.” Hopefully they do, because this one will be better.
With all that said, the advantages are in Kovalev’s favor, plus you’re getting better reward if he wins. Go forth, fans of the sweet science! Enjoy the best possible fight in boxing in 2016, and throw a few bucks on the Soviet destroyer.