NFL Week 11 Picks: Best Bets Against the Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 11 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record 15-14-1

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over DALLAS COWBOYS

This pick seems wild, but hear me out, because the logic is similar to my Eagles pick over the Falcons last week. The Cowboys seem unstoppable lately, behind an unfathomably good offensive line. But there is a landmine here for America’s Team; the Ravens are the No. 1 run defense in the NFL.

Baltimore has allowed fewer than 40 yards four times, and 65 yards of fewer seven times in nine games. The Cowboys have an incredible running game, but they are due for a clunker at some point. They also have a minor controversy going on with rookie Dak Prescott getting the nod over a now-healthy Tony Romo, who is playing the good soldier but is clearly pissed off. That’s added pressure on Prescott, who is QBing a team that can afford to take a game off mentally. The Ravens, however, are in a knife fight for AFC North supremacy.

Philadelphia Eagles (+6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seattle, at home, fresh off a HUUUUGE win over the Pats, and I’m here taking Philly? What?! Again…hear me out. Philadelphia has the best defense in football per Football Outsiders, and it’s ranked first overall against the pass. Philly’s defense has put up the NFL’s second-best adjusted sack rate (8.5%), while Seattle ranks 19th in terms of protecting the QB. And they can thank Russell Wilson’s incredible mobility for being even that high.

Scoring could be a problem for the Eagles, I’ll definitely admit. However, I’m betting that this defense can harass Wilson all game long, keep it low scoring, and make this a three-point game or so. 82 percent of the betting public thinks I’m wrong, but the “80/20” rule allowed me to strike big for a 3-0 week. Fly, Eagles fly!

Chicago Bears (+7.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

This is more anecdotal than statistical but you can’t deny its truth; you know you prefer backing Big Blue when they’re underdogs. Yes, they’re home, and yes, the Bears suck, but do you REALLY want to lay more than a touchdown with Eli Manning? With the Giants’ lame running game?

I’d run away from picking the Bears to win this outright on the road, but the Giants can absolutely lay an egg and make this a close stinker. With 85 percent of the action backing the G-Men with a big spread, this is a classic hold-your-nose and take the ‘dog.