NFL Week 10 Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 10 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record 12-14-1

TENNESSEE TITANS (+3) over Green Bay Packers

A whopping 86 percent of bettors believe that the Packers are going to beat the Titans by more than three points. Why? The Packers have not fared well against quality teams, with their four losses coming vs. the Vikings, Cowboys, Falcons and Colts, who have a combined record of 22-12. I’m not saying this to imply that the Titans are a top team, because they aren’t. But Tennessee is no bottom feeder, and they have a passable defense with one of the strongest running games in the league.

That style of play lends to close games – five of their nine games have been decided by one score – so to expect a struggling Packers’ offense to blow them out seems unlikely.

This spread offers you a chance to do three things. First, you can take advantage of the public’s tendency to believe in the Packers, when there are plenty of signs that this year they aren’t very good. Second, you get a solid team as a home underdog vs. an overrated team. Third, you get to go against the grain in a big way.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+1.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Delicious, more betting against conventional wisdom. The Eagles, despite being the home team, are giving a point and a half with 88 percent of bettors backing the Falcons. This looks an awful lot like a trap.

While the Falcons have a tremendous offense to brag about, they are going up against the No. 1 defense in football per Football Outsiders, and one that specifically shuts down No. 1 receivers. Does any team in football rely on a single receiver as much as Atlanta relies on Julio Jones? Philadelphia is no lock in my eyes, but the matchup is a difficult one for the Falcons, and by taking Philly you are getting a quality team, at home, getting points.

Miami Dolphins (+4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

My third pick of the week rejecting the public. The Dolphins are getting four points against the Chargers, which shows a bit of disrespect for a team that is coming into their own. Miami has won three straight games, and not against crap teams. They took down the Bills, Steelers and the Jets with a bye week splitting the Pittsburgh and New York games; you’ll point out that they won all three at home, which is fair, but that doesn’t discount their performances.

They have done this by unleashing RB Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 529 yards in those three wins, and topped 200 yards twice. They have also done this by outperforming expectations on defense, and becoming a Top 10 unit vs. the pass. This team shouldn’t be giving away four points to a shaky squad like San Diego, whose home field advantage is not one of the more intimidating ones in the NFL.