NFL Week 9 Picks: Best Bets Against The Spread

Hi! Do you enjoy football? How about winning money? If you answered yes to either or both of those questions, the following is in your wheelhouse. Here are the Smarter picks for Week 9 of the NFL season. These are against the spread, and the spreads and percentages are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record: 12-12

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints

This is a TRAP!

Earlier this week more than 80 percent of the action was on the Saints, and at the time of this writing it sits at 73 percent. There are lots of reasons to like the Niners in this game. Let’s start with the stuff that happens on the gridiron. The Saints rank 28th in the NFL against the pass AND the run, which means two things; first, the 49ers, who might have Carlos Hyde back, should be able to control the football on the ground between QB Colin Kaepernick, and whoever is in the backfield. Kaepernick has run for 66 and 84 yards in his first two starts of the year, and he is primed for an explosion vs. the Saints.

Next, consider the spot. The Saints are fresh off a brutal, unexpected, and emotionally draining win over the Seahawks. This is a classic letdown game for a team that classically plays worse on the road. Finally, with all those negative factors, the Saints are giving away more than a field goal. I LOVE the 49ers here with the points, but be careful if you’re getting super cute and thinking of picking them outright.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+7) over Dallas Cowboys

This is admittedly tough to actually pull the trigger on, but you’re likely to feel satisfied if you do. Dallas, at 6-1, is due for a letdown game, especially considering how heavily they lean on two rookies. This is the right spot for a dud; it’s a road tilt against a garbage team, fresh off a high-emotion victory over the Eagles in primetime last week. This Cleveland game is sandwiched between the Philly clash, and a road date at Pittsburgh. How the hell can they possibly be up for Cody Kessler in the Dawg Pound?

Dallas has overachieved defensively this year, but if they let their guard down, the Browns have the type of attack – run heavy with inconsistent, big-play threats in the passing game – that can take advantage of laziness. Terrelle Pryor has become a physical monster, and Corey Coleman is back to take the top off Dallas’ secondary, which still ranks closer to No. 20 than No. 10. Dallas should pull out a W, but I think it’ll be a close, ugly contest.

Carolina Panthers (-3) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Conventional wisdom says the Panthers should roll in this game, and the betting trend is in agreement; as of this writing, 68 percent of the action is on the defending NFC champions. That typically means I’d go the opposite way, but in this case, I like the Panthers.

This defense has been very bad since CB Josh Norman left, but the ineptitude isn’t evenly distributed. Carolina ranks in the Top 5 against the run, and the bottom five vs. the pass. Luckily for them, the Rams are completely reliant on RB Todd Gurley for their offense, and Case Keenum is among the worst starting QBs possibly in league history. The Rams are ill-equipped to take advantage of Carolina’s biggest weakness, and the Panthers desperately need the game. Despite being on the road, a reigning MVP gives me confidence a three-point spread isn’t too much to overcome.