2024 Team Previews: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Justin Jefferson, WR (ADP: 6, WR3): Losing Kirk Cousins, quietly one of the NFL’s most prolific passers over the past few years, definitely sucks. But if you think that’s enough to knock Jefferson from the ranks of the tippy-topmost elite WRs for fantasy, that’s crazy, but thank you for the value. Jefferson was limited to only 10 games in 2023, and still hit 1,000 yards on 68 receptions with five touchdowns.
It's never good to lose a great QB, but Cousins isn’t making Jefferson. He helps for sure, but Jefferson is going to be open non-stop whether it’s Cousins, Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, or even me throwing the passes. We’re talking about a receiver who was in the 90th percentile vs. both man (76.6% success) and zone (84.3%), and who cooked press coverage at an 84.2% rate. Yes, his press coverage success rate was a tenth of a point off his success rate vs. zone, and significantly better than his rate vs. straight man. Jefferson is also likely to see an increase in his already gluttonous target share with TE T.J. Hockenson recovering from a late season knee injury. Safe to say, you could make Jefferson the first WR off the board, and despite the downgrade in QB, I couldn’t knock it. He’s the best receiver in football and he’s going to put up wild numbers regardless of the passer.
**Aaron Jones, RB (ADP: 54, RB18): The Packers finally got tired of Jones’ constant questionable tag, letting him walk right over to a division rival. 2023 was a bust of a season for him because of injury, but when he was right, he was still Aaron Jones. He actually hurt his hamstring initially on a long TD run, and battled it for much of the season which led to low-usage or outright missed games. When he got right though, at the end of the year, he finished the season with three straight games of 20+ attempts and 110+ yards. He was still one of PFF’s Top 10 RBs, and while he’s known as a premier receiver out of the backfield, his No. 9 ranking was on the strength of his 85.7 rushing grade, the eighth-best mark.
2023 was the first time in five years he failed to hit 1,100+ scrimmage yards, but he did get to 889 in only 11 games. The film and the numbers do not show a guy who has lost “it” yet, and he’s going to have the lion’s share of Minnesota’s backfield work. Ty Chandler is there, and he’ll be used, but this is not going to be some kind of 50/50 split. Jones carries a lot of injury risk, but even with that in mind, this ADP is probably a value.
Jordan Addison, WR (ADP: 101, WR42): Addison is not a player I’m high on. He put up great rookie numbers – 70 receptions, 911 yards, 10 touchdowns – but entering Year 2 he’s downgrading big time at QB, and I’d be very skeptical of him repeating that shocking TD number.
Whereas Jefferson is proven to be one of the elite receivers the NFL has ever seen, and is therefore QB proof, Addison most certainly is not. Addison plays on the outside, but posted just a 63% win rate vs. man, placing him in the 29th percentile. He was much better vs. zone (79.7%, 60th percentile), but that’s not exactly top notch either. Addison had real problems vs. press coverage too, checking in with a 12th percentile finish (51.5% success). Part of his success was playing off of Jefferson, who is obviously still there. That means the big play opportunities he saw should still be present for him to capitalize. But he won’t have Kirk Cousins throwing those passes anymore, and there’s almost zero chance that Darnoldcan improve on it, or even remain neutral. Of his 10 touchdowns, seven of them were from 20 yards out or further, with two of them coming from 60+ yards. Without exceptional volume, which he won’t see with Jefferson eating up most of the targets, if those TDs aren’t there you’re looking at a receiver who relies on big plays and doesn’t have the QB to deliver them. I’m way out at this ADP.
**T.J. Hockenson, TE (ADP: 124, TE14): When Hockenson is back, pencil him in as an every week separator at TE. I’ve been skeptical before, but he’s proven to be a critical cog of this passing game, and even with the shift at QB, Hockenson’s entire purpose is as a safety valve/chain mover. He’s one of the safest bets in the game right now for target share, and therefore is one of the rare injury dip guys I might be willing to take a gamble on at ADP. When he returns, I’d expect him to slot right back into his previous, high-volume role and basically be Evan Engram’s Charizard.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Ty Chandler, RB (ADP: 148, RB47): Chandler was pretty freakin’ good last year. The Vikings were loathe to turn the backfield over to him, but when they did he showed he had home run potential and could also grind out tough yardage. He graded as a Top 20 back per PFF, and put up useful stats in a number of games starting in Week 10. From Week 10 on, he saw 10+ carries in six of eight games after seeing no more than three in any game prior. Jones is the man, but he’s never been a workhorse. Chandler will have a fairly consistent role in this offense, but the question will be is it big enough for standalone value? My guess is no, particularly since this offense probably won’t be very high scoring, but he will be a valuable handcuff.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Josh Oliver, TE (ADP: N/A): The TE position is big in this offense, and Oliver should step into the role vacated by Hockenson while he recovers. Of course, his value dies instantly upon Hockenson’s return, but until then you have a PFF Top 10 TE as a lottery ticket.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Sam Darnold, QB (ADP: 229, QB32): Darnold is getting a last hurrah as a starter in the NFL, and I hope he makes the most of it. Darnold has the tools to be a productive QB, even if he’s not a great one. We’ve seen lesser talents like Nick Mullens have success in Minnesota by just locking in on Jefferson and getting him the rock. Darnold should be able to do that while also running a bit too. He’s an underrated value in two-QB leagues, and someone who can start in a SuperFlex spot in a bye week/injury crunch.