2024 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Josh Jacobs, RB (ADP: 24, RB12): Jacobs sits atop the ADP list for a team that has no shortage of interesting players for fantasy. His ADP is by no means cheap, but he appears to be a value based on the offense he has joined, and his previous success. Looking at Jacobs’ career, his 2,053-yards from scrimmage eruption in 2022 does seem like an outlier. He’d never performed with such efficiency in the past, and he fell quite a ways down last season, returning very little on his first round ADP. However, that saltiness we were left with in 2023 obscures some simple truths; Jacobs is a fine RB, and he is a three-down workhorse in an era where that type of player is close to extinction.

Jacobs is a hammer near the goal line, with two seasons with 12 rushing touchdowns to his name, and he’s also workhorse, having just one season in his career where he averaged fewer than 17.9 attempts per game. When asked to contribute as a receiver, he’s done so, with 50+ receptions in both 2021 and 2022, and pacing for a similar outcome in a 2023 that was limited to 13 games due to injury. That goal line prowess is likely the primary reason the Packers parted ways with Aaron Jones and turned to him. As mentioned here when he first signed on in Green Bay, the Packers only scored 10 rushing touchdowns last season, and they were particularly bad when they were on the doorstep. All Packers RBs combined last season for two rushing touchdowns from the two yard line or closer, which was one fewer than their QB, Jordan Love. Jacobs should see heavy volume, and a healthy dose of goal line work for one of the better offenses in the NFL. Barring injury, it’s hard to see him not being comfortably inside the RB1 discussion, whereas this ADP places him on the fringe.

Jordan Love, QB (ADP: 73, QB9): Love is a very exciting QB who proved he can do a lot for multiple skill players within his offense, but drafting a pocket passer at this point when there are either running QBs (Jayden Daniels) or similar style QBs with just as much, if not more upside (Justin Herbert) later on feels like leaving value on the table.  The case for Love is obvious; he’s super talented, has the arm to make big throws, but also the accuracy to move the chains consistently, and he’s surrounded by one of the deepest receiving corps in the NFL. What’s not to like?

Well, he threw 32 touchdown passes, second-most in the NFL, with a 5.5 TD%. Of course that is a good thing, but it can be a little scary to rely on a pocket QB when so much of his success came from finding the end zone. TDs can be fickle, and he was outside the Top 10 in yards per game. A drop in those TD numbers – not crazy considering the RB they brought in – could hurt Love’s value. It won’t mean he sucks, but it would take him from a difference maker at QB to a merely solid option. Inside the Top 75, I want a clear difference-maker.

**Jayden Reed, WR (ADP: 80, WR36): This Packers’ receiver group is deep, and if you want to capitalize on this offense, you’ve got to man up and make choices. If I’m investing in this crew, the player I want most is Reed. He doesn’t have the eye-popping size and speed combo of Christian Watson, but he’s pretty clearly the best all-around receiver on the team. He had a stellar rookie season, putting up 64 receptions, 793 yards and eight receiving touchdowns, while also contributing 119 rushing yards and two scores. No, he’s not Deebo Samuel, but the Packers certainly made an effort to manufacture some touches for him as a rusher and those plays often gained chunks of yardage, if not touchdowns.

Reed was a high-end zone-beater (81.7%, 77th percentile) and man-beater (72.2%, 71st percentile) and also showed well vs. press coverage despite facing very little of it. He was mostly operating from the slot, but he was their primary receiver who went in motion, which led to more designed touches and got him in space to do his thing. The coaching staff knows what he does best, noting his insane success rates on posts, digs, slants and screens and basically spamming those routes for him.  Due to the depth of this pass-catching group, they have other options for the other stuff and can let these receivers hone what they do best. It’s a nice setup, and one that should make Reed Love’s most-targeted receiver. Go get him.

Christian Watson, WR (ADP: 100, WR41): Watson is the physical freak of this group, and the least refined as far as the craft goes. The thing is, when healthy, his craft isn’t really stopping him from doing heavy damage to opposing defenses. Watson doesn’t separate well, and his success rates against man and zone aren’t impressive. He’s an imposing beast who has scored 14 total touchdowns (12 receiving) in 20 games on 69 career receptions. Last season 16.9% of his routes were nines, and he was successful on 61.5% of them. Watson’s route tree is green on all the downfield stuff like nines, posts and corners, whereas you see a whole lot of red on the intermediate and short stuff which requires more than running fast and being bigger than the DB(s).

What we get with Watson is a guy who has only shown consistent effectiveness down the field on lower-percentage routes. It makes him boom or bust, and the booms will be crazy, but those bust games can be ugly. He also posted a pretty ugly 47.1% contested catch rate in 2023, which if it continues, could significantly hamper his TD totals and Love’s willingness to target him in the end zone. He looks the part of a breakout receiver, but I think we know who he is, and this ADP is actually just about right.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Romeo Doubs, WR (ADP: 136, WR53): Doubs is a pretty good receiver who had a pretty solid 2023 that was inflated by scoring eight touchdowns. That could happen again, because Love is a very good QB and the Packers should score a lot, but he’s also sharing time and targets with some talented guys and he doesn’t really outshine any of them in any area. Doubs isn’t a separator like Dontayvion Wicks, he’s not the athlete Watson is, nor the playmaker that Reed is. He’s just a good receiver, and a strong ball-winner, which is another argument for his TD rate remaining high. I’ve got no issue with Doubs as a depth piece at this ADP, but I don’t see his ceiling as beyond what he did in 2023, so I’m likely looking elsewhere for more upside.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

**Dontayvion Wicks, WR (ADP: 156, WR59): Wicks is a popular sleeper entering 2024 for good reason. He projects as a mainstay in this offense after a 72.2% win rate vs. man last season that placed him in the 71st percentile, and he can play either outside receiver position opposite Christian Watson, who is probably best suited as the X.

Wicks has the look of a heavily-targeted player on third downs, as his slant and curl success rates, 86.2% and 83.3%, respectively – are absolutely ridiculous, as was his 90% success on outs. Wicks’ name is a bit buried because this WR room is so crowded, and Watson’s TD numbers through two seasons are gaudy, but I actually think Wicks is a far better value going so late. I’d prefer to roster Wicks as my second Packers’ receiver than Watson because he’ll be much less of a rollercoaster.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

MarShawn Lloyd, RB (ADP: 166, RB51): Lloyd has buzz as a guy who could work his way into a pretty favorable role in this offense, but I don’t really see it. He had good production at both South Carolina and USC, scoring nine touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, but he’s never rushed for 1,000 yards in college and he didn’t show much as a receiver either, with a career-high of 18 catches. The fact that AJ Dillon is still hanging around the RB room tells me Lloyd is probably not a slam dunk handcuff for Jacobs, and Jacobs isn’t going to come off the field much at all. He’s going late enough that a flier is fine, but I have no expectations in Year 1.

Luke Musgrave, TE (ADP: 174, TE18): Musgrave is a talented dude whose season was marred by injuries. He looked like a guy dying to break out, and some miscues and eventually bad breaks (literally and figuratively) stunted his rookie showing. He finished with 34 receptions, 352 yards and a touchdown. Nothing too alarming, as rookie TEs rarely pop right away. The athleticism was evident, and the draft capital spent on him last year (2nd round pick) shows the Packers think he is a person who should have a big role. Maybe the skill group is just too crowded – he even has strong competition at his own position – but he could be a fun dart throw at the very end of the draft.

AJ Dillon, RB (ADP: 195, RB56): Dillon’s a big, big boy but as we enter Year 5 of his career, the dream of a breakout is dead. Dillon could emerge as still the handcuff for Jacobs, but we’ve seen him in this offense with the lead role and it was…..meh. I’m not very interested in rostering Dillon, but he merits mention if only to temper expectations on Lloyd. This backfield, despite the weird ADP, is all about Josh Jacobs.

Tucker Kraft, TE (ADP: N/A): Kraft was pretty solid when he had the job to himself while Musgrave was out, finishing with 31 receptions, 355 yards and two scores. He isn’t the athlete Musgrave is, but he can get open and do some stuff when targeted, so he’s worth flagging to keep an eye on.