2024 Team Previews: Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120             

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (ADP: 8, WR5): St. Brown has gone from preseason sleeper, to breakout star, to now bona fide Top 10 WR. While St. Brown doesn’t arrive at his production quite how the typical superstar receiver does it, the results are undeniable. He has improved every season when his role seemed like it would cap his ceiling; as a rookie he put up 90 receptions for 912 yards and five scores. As a third-year player he caught 119 passes for 1,515 yards and doubled the TD total to 10. And unlike most WRs, even star WRs, St. Brown almost never had a dud game in 2023.

Last season he put up 70+ yards in all but three of his games played, and 5+ receptions in all but two games. And if you’re wondering how a player who doesn’t exactly have the physical gifts that align with the other players going in his range at the position, it’s by spamming the hell out of what works and executing it like a boss. Simply put, St. Brown is just not a dominant separator down the field. He makes his hay through volume, but he is basically unstoppable in the short to intermediate range. 25.6% of his routes were slants, on which he succeeded at an 82.5% clip. He  also crushed it on routes to the flat, screens, and digs, all of which point to his suddenness and short area elusiveness making him uncoverable. And if you’re shying away from him because you don’t believe in drafting slot receivers this high, be aware that almost half of his reps were on the outside, and he had the best year of his career.

St. Brown is one of the best zone beaters in the NFL, and while his success rates aren’t up to the caliber of the Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson types on the deep routes, he does beat man at a 71.6% rate, putting him in the 67th percentile. He’s non-traditional, but undeniable.

**Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (ADP: 13, RB6): Gibbs was super frustrating early in the year, but if you stuck with him you were rewarded. His final numbers – 1,261 yards from scrimmage, 11 touchdowns – would not indicate there were any struggles for this guy, a walking chunk play. Gibbs is explosive as hell, averaging more than five yards per carry  and six yards per reception. He contributes healthily on the ground and through the air – 52 receptions, 316 yards, one TD – and his final numbers are going to be much greater with a full season’s worth of games with his mid-to-end of 2023 role.

Prior to Week 6, Gibbs logged 60% of snaps just once. After Week 6, it happened five times, and he fell below 50% just twice. It’s no surprise then, that from Week 6 on Gibbs averaged about 18 opportunities (carries + targets) and 92 scrimmage yards while scoring all 11 of his touchdowns. Of course, the presence of David Montgomery will be frustrating at times because he’ll vulture touchdowns and force Gibbs off the field at times, but he’ll also help keep Gibbs from wearing down and reduce his injury risk. Gibbs does not need a massive workload to be great, as we saw from his insane output as a rookie. This is probably going to be a value even though he’s in the first round.

Sam LaPorta, TE (ADP: 28, TE2): LaPorta shattered the concept that rookie TEs can’t be dominant for fantasy, catching 86 passes for 88 yards and 10 touchdowns. His TD total might be difficult to replicate, but he was more than just an end zone maven. His 5.1 receptions per game matched that of Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, and were fourth for the position. He was Top 5 among TEs in targets (120), yards, and receptions. But those TDs sure were delicious, and we can expect him to continue being a favorite of Jared Goff’s in the red zone. LaPorta drew 20% (18) of Detroit’s red zone targets, of which there were 91, 10th-most in the NFL. Eight of those 18 targets turned into touchdowns.

It is a little startling to see a name other than Travis Kelce atop TE rankings, and if the TD numbers dip even a bit, it’ll be hard for LaPorta to return much value on an ADP this high. But he’s a surefire stud who will not harm your team. The ADP is decent, but I do expect to be looking at other positions at this point in the draft.

David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 59, RB21): Montgomery had a big season for the Lions last year, rushing for more than 1,000 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. This ADP seems out of whack for a guy with that line, staying in the same offense with the same guys around him, but it makes sense if you consider that the role of Gibbs will be growing. Sure, Montgomery will still get goal line opportunities, but they’ll be reduced from last season, and it’s not an automatic, plug in Monty situation when they get close.

Montgomery will be a bit more TD-dependent this season than last, and on a week-to-week basis I’m not in love with the ceiling. But he will have a good chunk of work in this high-scoring offense, and he has an RB1 ceiling in the event that Gibbs goes down with an injury. This ADP is just right.

Jared Goff, QB (ADP: 106, QB14): Goff is the man orchestrating one of the best offenses in football, so he should be among the top fantasy QBs right? Ehhh, not so much. Goff is close. The benchmarks for a pocket passing QB are 4,000+ yards and 35 touchdowns. Goff can easily clear the yardage mark, as he’s blown past 4,400 yards four times in his career. Goff has never thrown more than 32 touchdown passes, though, and with a running game as elite as this one there’s no need for him to really press the gas. Goff is a safe bet for 4,200-4,500 yards, and 30ish touchdowns. That is a QB that you can start weekly and feel okay, who will have spike weeks that have you competing with the elites. But he’s not a season-long difference maker, and that is a different thing entirely.

At this ADP, there are still potential difference makers at QB, which is why I’m bypassing Goff.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Jameson Williams, WR (ADP: 115, WR48): Williams is the first player on this highly fantasy-relevant team that causes genuinely mixed reactions. We all agree that St. Brown, Gibbs and LaPorta are great options, and that Montgomery and Goff are players who matter on rosters. Some are convinced Williams can be a superstar, and others think he’ll be waiver wire flotsam. Williams is a very gifted athlete, but I’m closer to the latter category than the former.

Off the bat, I’m not a lover of his archetype; Williams is a downfield burner who can have a full game’s worth of fantasy production in one play, but earns his keep on low-percentage targets that lead to more dud games than Ws. He was drafted in the first round of 2022, and has 25 receptions and 395 yards in his entire career. For reference, former Lions great Calvin Johnson once had 329 yards in a single game. Yes, his speed is crazy, and yes, he’s flashed that DeSean Jackson-esque big play ability at this level, but his profile just does not paint the picture of a well-rounded player who can contribute consistently. He ended 2023 in the 13th percentile vs. man coverage (57.5% success) and the 12th percentile vs. zone (72.1% success). For context, that zone success is a good but not great number vs. man. He was good on posts, corners and digs last year and very little else, and his 45.2% success rate on nines, which made up 16.2% of his routes, is not what I’d like to see from a player whose whole thing is taking the top off a defense.

The ADP isn’t prohibitive, but he’s also not exactly free. There are a lot receivers going after him that have high ceilings, but also higher floors. Maybe I’m way off and Williams has a breakout third season, but if that were to happen, he’s got a long journey from where he ended 2023.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Kalif Raymond, WR (ADP: N/A): Raymond is a lowkey explosive receiver who could have fantasy value in a high-scoring offense like this with enough opportunity. St. Brown has had the slot on lock for a long time, but as his usage on the outside creeps up annually, there could be an expanded role for Raymond. He’s got a career catch rate north of 70% and he put up 616 yards in 2022, which isn’t nothing.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR (ADP: N/A): Peoples-Jones kind of popped in 2022 when he saw a career-high 96 targets, putting up 61 receptions, 839 yards and three touchdowns. Right now, his whole function is likely to be handled by Jameson Williams, but if an injury struck, or Williams does something knuckle-headed to cause himself to miss time, DPJ can slide right into that role and have similar impact to Williams. That may still not matter for fantasy, but he warrants a mention.