2024 Team Previews: Washington Commanders
Updated 8/26/24
Washington Commanders 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP: 69, WR30): McLaurin is an excellent NFL receiver, and after some misfires on players I believed in whose production didn’t match their talent for reasons beyond their control, I refuse to give up on McLaurin’s ceiling. Many will say, we know who he is. The past three seasons you could basically set your watch to his production, as he’s come in between 77-79 receptions, 4-5 touchdowns, and around 1,000 yards with a spike in 2022 (1,191). This is all very solid production, but far from elite, which he can get to based on his talent.
McLaurin has always been a dominant outside receiver since entering the league, largely held back by bad QB play and unimaginative offense and really arriving at these sturdy WR2 finishes based completely on his own talent. D.J. Moore showed us in Chicago last season that you don’t even need an elite QB to break through, and that it can just happen when you’re this good. With McLaurin, we hope No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels is a big upgrade though, who can get those TD numbers up. His past says this ADP is about right. You may have given up on his ceiling, but I haven’t. I think this is a value.
**Brian Robinson Jr., RB (ADP: 91, RB32): Brian Robinson is another big, big value. We covered the uncertainty about his role with Ekeler arriving, but this is a player who thrived in a similar deal with Antonio Gibson eating chunks of his snaps. Despite putting up a middling 733 yards on the ground, Robinson piled up more than 1,100 yards from scrimmage by catching 36 passes for 368 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He was PFF’s No. 23 RB, and earned a significantly better receiving grade than Ekeler did (71.4 vs. 57.4).
Robinson possesses a prototype body to handle physical, large workloads and his touchdown opportunity should grow with Daniels and new coaching helming a, hopefully, improved overall offense. I’m not saying Robinson is going to turn into a superstar in Year 3, but I do think he’s going to touch the ball much more than people expect because Ekeler has arrived, and he is definitely the Commanders back I’d prefer to roster of the two.
Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP: 92, RB34): All the players on this team have an uncomfortable level of unknown attached to them, and Ekeler is no exception. Primarily a pass-catcher, and a guy who has been an elite fantasy RB without ever having rushed for 1,000 yards, his role is unknowable ahead of the season. He’s 29 years old, coming off a down season, but one marred by injury, and joining an offense that had a breakout from second-year RB Brian Robinson as both a rusher and receiver. Complicating matters further is that Washington overhauled the entire coaching staff, so it’s unknown how the new regime feels about Robinson after the strong 2023 showing.
At his peak, Ekeler was putting up north of 1,500 yards from scrimmage and scored 20 and 18 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022. It is extremely doubtful that he’ll see that level of target share in 2024, not only because rookie QBs are rarely that prolific as passers, but because running QBs often have a chilling effect on RB receiving production because dump offs can be replaced by scrambles. And while he’s been a TD maven in the past, Robinson is built for short yardage work and is who I’d expect to take those plunges from the goal line. Technically, Ekeler’s ceiling is a Top 3 RB, but that isn’t a realistic expectation. His downside seems built in to this depressed ADP from a year ago, but if he’s fully past his prime and his role is overqualified passing downs back, he’s just not someone who will be a locked-in weekly start. With that in the range of outcomes, even this price feels risky and uncomfortable.
**Jayden Daniels, QB (ADP: 96, QB12): Daniels’ ADP feels like a total steal even if you aren’t a buyer in his ability to be a consistent passer in Year 1. Rushing is the secret sauce of QB value, and Daniels is as good a rushing QB prospect as we’ve seen in a long time.
At LSU, Daniels ran for more than 1,100 yards in 2023, with 10 rushing touchdowns. It’s elite stuff, comparable to the likes of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, and something we never saw from even Michael Vick. A lot of things don’t translate from the college game to the pros, but QB rushing can, because size and blazing speed are universal. So on that alone, Daniels will likely run enough to be a QB1, and that’s not accounting for the fact that he’s a pretty polished passer. He wasn’t always a pretty watch, but as a fifth-year player he threw 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions for the Tigers, showcasing a quantum leap in his development. In comparison to his previous four seasons, it’s suspicious, but 55 collegiate starts offer a lot of opportunity to grow. As a super senior he posted a 77.3% adjusted accuracy score and didn’t struggle against either man or zone in the toughest conference college football has to offer.
Everything about Daniels’ profile is screaming immediate fantasy superstar, but because of his rushing prowess the perception is doubt about whether he can hack it as a passer. This isn’t Anthony Richardson folks. Daniels is going to be great, and it is startling to see legit, genuine value on a rushing QB in 2024. He isn’t just a great value at QB, this is one of the best values in all of fantasy.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Luke McCaffery, WR (ADP: 249, WR79): McCaffery has some buzz – has nothing to do with his last name I’m sure – for his versatility and the creative ways he’s being used around the formation. That’s great and all, but Reception Perception shows him with a sub-60% success rate vs. man and a 76.2% success rate vs. zone, which is good but not unheard of. His route tree is…not diverse. 28.3% of his routes were slants, which he was successful on 80% of the time, but he has some putrid success rates on every downfield route, including a ghastly 16.7% rate on outs which made up 11.3% of his routes. He’s not for me, even though his price is going to rise due to Jahan Dotson being traded, vacating all of the Curtis Samuel/Dotson targets from last season. McLaurin isn’t getting all of them, so McCaffery is probably a fine enough end-of-draft flier.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Zach Ertz, TE (ADP: 261, TE32): Ertz is like a fantasy cockroach, just refusing to die an honorable fantasy death. His production has dwindled of late, and his explosiveness is now non-existent, but while people get worked up about rookie TE Ben Sinnott, Ertz will be there catching short passes and getting tackled immediately, creating full-PPR value. The ceiling for Ertz is about six inches from the floor, but he’ll serve dual purposes for Washington; extending drives with these short receptions, and serving as a safety blanket for Daniels. There’s nothing exciting about Ertz, but some TD luck will make him a fantasy relevant TE.
Dyami Brown, WR (ADP: 277, WR87): Brown does one thing, run deep fast. Now when he does it, Daniels is capable of hitting him in stride for some big plays. Brown may be a one-trick pony, but it could be a hell of a trick, and it’s free to find out. Dotson’s trade doesn’t change how I look at Brown, because they were very different players. It just perhaps means a few extra balls get thrown Brown’s way.