2024 Team Previews: Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**DJ Moore, WR (ADP: 40, WR19): For years we begged for D.J. Moore to find a good offensive home with a good QB so we could finally see his potential unlocked. In 2023, he broke out for real…with Justin Fields? It turns out Moore could break out even without an elite passer, as he finished with 96 receptions, 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns as the Bears’ No. 1 target. Now he’s going to play with the No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, who should be a massive upgrade as a passer over Fields. But his ADP hasn’t gone crazy because Chicago loaded the skill positions with talent. That’s great for us, because it makes Moore a clear value.
Adding an established star veteran receiver (Keenan Allen) and one of the best rookie receivers (Rome Odunze) could eat into his 136 targets. But the Bears also threw the sixth-fewest passes in the NFL last year, likely because Fields and Tyson Bagent struggled to hit the broad side of a barn all year. They’re going to wing it like crazy in 2024, and I’m throwing out all narratives about rookie QBs historically, because there aren’t many rookie QBs coming in with this level of hype and polish. I expect Chicago to throw the ball as much as possible, and where some may be confused about the alpha of the receiver room, I’m not. It is D.J. Moore, and at this ADP he’s a steal.
D’Andre Swift, RB (ADP: 63, RB22): I love Swift, and I always have, and every year I see RBs getting work when Swift should, and then Swift being let go, and I’m left confused. The recipe for that scenario is flashing. This backfield is crowded; Swift got the bag, and I think he’s the clear starter, but if whatever issues he has that are invisible to me crop up, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him lose work to Khalil Herbert and/or Roschon Johnson. With that said, Swift had his best season in 2023 with the Eagles, logging his first 1,000-yard season and scoring six touchdowns. He is a very good pass-catcher with two 70+-reception campaigns on his resume, and he’s never scored fewer than six touchdowns. I think this offense is set to be a wagon, so at this ADP Swift is a strong buy. I’m not convinced he’ll outpace this ADP by that much, but I’m certainly willing to draft him here.
Keenan Allen, WR (ADP: 75, WR32): Allen is a great player to bring in to help a rookie QB along, but he definitely makes the puzzle pieces harder to place for fantasy managers. At age 32, Allen is supposed to be slowing down, but he put up the second-most yards ever in his career in 2023 (1,243) with seven touchdowns on 108 receptions. With Mike Williams down for the count early, and really no support in the receiving room, Allen put the offense on his back and, until he got hurt, was Justin Herbert’s superhero.
But…while the numbers were stellar, the signs of age are there. His success rate vs. zone placed him in the 63rd percentile, a good number, but we’ve seen prime Keenan shred that. His nine and post success rates were in the red, clearly indicating some athletic decline. He also didn’t run many of those routes, and he probably won’t for the Bears. Allen was great on digs and curls, and gorged on slants and flat patterns. When he was running intermediate and short routes, he was unstoppable, and for Caleb Williams he’ll probably lead the team in targets. Whether or not Allen crushes this ADP will be decided by touchdowns; I expect him to pace the Bears in receptions and targets, but if it’s mostly short stuff, he could still just meet his ADP rather than exceed it. I think Allen will be a very good fantasy option, but I’m least excited about him of the three entering 2024.
**Rome Odunze, WR (ADP: 93, WR39): The general assumption is that Odunze, while talented, is going to be a slot player on a veteran-laden receiving corps and getting the short end of the stick in Year 1. Not me. While we all gush over Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, and pushed both of their ADPs to points that are a record high for rookie WRs, I think Odunze was the best pure receiver in this loaded class.
Odunze put up 92 receptions, 1,640 yards and 14 total touchdowns at Washington as Michael Penix Jr.’s top dog, with a full green route success tree, and absurd success rates vs. man (76.2%), zone (83.5%) and press (80%). He was always on the outside for the Huskies, and while I don’t doubt he could murder nickelbacks as a slot receiver, Allen’s breakdown shows that he’s far more suited to working on the inside. Odunze, with more prototypical size than Moore, can walk onto the field in Week 1 as Chicago’s X receiver, run all the big boy routes and dominate. Lastly, Odunze posted a terrifying 88.9% contested catch rate, making him an early favorite to lead the team in end zone targets and also a go-to guy on pass plays where the Bears need chunk yardage, because it’ll be hard to double anyone with this much talent on the field.
Again, Williams is going to throw the ball a ton, and we saw C.J. Stroud support a lot of fantasy goodness as a rookie. Odunze is an absolute beast, and this ADP is making him one of the best values in all of fantasy.
**Caleb Williams, QB (ADP: 98, QB13): Williams’ sophomore numbers were better than last year’s, but his junior season with the Trojans still showed an elite QB prospect. He threw for 3,633 yards and 30 touchdowns against just five interceptions, three of which came in one bad game vs. Notre Dame. He’s drawn comparisons out of the gate to Patrick Mahomes, which is not fair at all to Caleb, because he ain’t that. He just visually resembles Mahomes’ style of play because he’s very comfortable making insane plays on the move. That’ll serve him well with arguably the best receiving corps in football.
He has a reputation as a gunslinger, but really he’s just dope. He was super accurate throwing the ball at the line of scrimmage and within 10 yards. He was also solidly accurate on all the areas of the field at the intermediate and deep levels with the exception being between 10-20 yards right over the middle. Reception Perception blames his height for that, but it just means he’s a fantastic prospect rather than a perfect one. And while the “gunslinger” tag usually implies recklessness, he’s always taken care of the football.
Finally, he’s not running like Jayden Daniels, but Williams can scoot. He has scored 21 rushing TDs in two years at USC, and rushed for nearly 400 yards as a sophomore. We won’t see designed runs for him, but he can chew up yards in a hurry when he scrambles. I truly believe it’s better roster construction to wait and snap up Caleb Williams here than to get Stroud or Jordan Love at their ADP.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
**Cole Kmet, TE (ADP: 135,.TE16): Kmet’s ADP is also being hit because of the embarrassment of riches in this pass-catching crew, but he had a career-year in 2023 with Fields too. Kmet’s role isn’t just going to disappear, and his size and athleticism combo make him a strong red zone target, whereas Moore and Allen have never been TD mavens. Kmet’s situation reeks of Dallas Goedert in Philly, where a talented guy is painfully underused, but Goedert still produces at a fantasy relevant level. So will Kmet, and he’s going way later than Goedert is. I love Kmet as a fallback option for those who don’t get a top option, and refuse to reach for the middle tier.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
**Khalil Herbert, RB (ADP: 182, RB53): Herbert is in Year 4 of being one of the nerds’ favorite RBs. PFF graded him as their No. 14 RB in 2023, and as usual, when given opportunity, he performed. Herbert saw 18+ carries three times last season, rushing for 100+ yards every time, and scoring in two of them. Swift doesn’t necessarily have the cleanest health record, so drafting Herbert as a handcuff makes sense since his play style is closer to Swift’s than Roschon Johnson is. His production when given the work is undeniable, and if he did manage to win the lead role, even splitting it with Swift, Johnson or a combo of the two, he’d be a FLEX option at worst.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Roschon Johnson, RB (ADP: 223, RB63): Johnson is fine, but not special. His chance to establish himself as “the guy” came and went because injury bit him last year right when his chance had arrived, and D’Onta Foreman grabbed the brass ring. Johnson could wind up as a goal line hammer this year, killing Swift and Herbert’s value simultaneously, but the likeliest scenario is he’s mostly irrelevant, or serves as the weakest part of a timeshare if Swift or Herbert gets banged up.