2024 Team Previews: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Mike Evans, WR (ADP: 32, WR15): Evans enthusiasm was a bit down entering 2023 with Tom Brady gone, replaced by Baker Mayfield and heading into his age-30 campaign. Those who kept the faith were rewarded with 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns on 79 receptions. It was Evans’ 10th straight season with 1,000 yards, and the third in his last four with 13+ touchdowns. It’s unclear what else Evans has to do to be considered among the top dogs of his position, but if the fantasy community wants to keep allowing the best and brightest to draft him at value every year we should simply be grateful.

The loss of Dave Canales, last year’s offensive coordinator is a bit of a bummer because he’s developed a reputation for rehabbing discarded QBs. It remains to be seen if Mayfield can maintain the progress he made last year without Canales there, but Evans has been through multiple QBs, coaching regimes and offensive environments. The baseline is the same; Evans is giving you 65-80 receptions and 1,000+ yards as a floor. And he even improved last season, with a career-best 73.1% success rate vs. man coverage. You’ll get some frustrating drops and some random super dud games along the way, but where he finishes depends on whether he goes nuts or not in the TD department. In 10 NFL seasons, he’s scored 12+ TDs in half of them. With a floor this high, this ADP is a slam dunk.

Rachaad White, RB (ADP: 35, RB13): White’s stats and fantasy finish placed him among the elites in fantasy last season. He ended 2023 with 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns, with a ton of his production coming through the air. White caught 64 of his 70 targets for 549 yards and three scores, making him one of fantasy’s most coveted beasts – a three-down, dual threat RB. His success is proof of the theory that ultimately, volume is king. White rarely is a favorite of the film junkies, and despite his gaudy totals last season he graded out as just PFF’s No. 41 RB.

What kind of manager are you? Do you become seduced by talent, and are you willing to make bigger gambles based on the pure talent you see when you watch the games? Or are you the type to look at the numbers on the page, look at how the Buccaneers did basically nothing to bolster the position around White, and decide White’s in line for another massive workload and draft accordingly? White was second among all running backs in opportunities (carries + targets) with 342, only 13 fewer than Christian McCaffery. I believe this ADP makes sense for White, and he can justify it, but I’m generally in the camp of taking bigger risks for bigger talent, so I likely will not be ending up with White in most drafts.

**Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 77, WR34): Godwin’s been a letdown since a monster 2019 season, but a lot of that is on us as fantasy managers. We have been consistently overdrafting Godwin based on a crazy outlier TD total that year, when the reality is he’s been a solid player since then. Godwin finished 2023 with 1,024 yards, the third straight season with over 1,000 yards, and fourth in his last five. His reception totals for the past three years are 98, 104, and 83, and that’s with some scattered missed games thrown in. At this ADP, I’m actually a big fan. He’s a talented slot receiver who is bankable for yardage and receptions. When you’re drafting him at this point, the TDs can come or go without killing your roster, because he’s likely not anything more than your WR3, if not a FLEX option. And while he’s been really unlucky when it comes to finding the painted area, his five TDs over the past two seasons, encompassing 187 receptions, is comically bad. Godwin is very overdue for some positive TD regression, and if it comes at this ADP he’ll be a huge difference maker on rosters. Love the value.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 150, QB21): The loss of Canales doesn’t concern me as much for the receivers on this team as it does for Mayfield, an imperfect talent who really benefitted from the tutelage. Mayfield had his best NFL season in 2023 on a prove it deal, throwing for 4,000+ yards for the first time ever, and tossing a career-high 28 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions, his second-fewest in a season where he was the starter all year. I believe in Baker as a solid QB2 in those formats, and a viable option in a SuperFLEX league, but his ceiling isn’t any higher than that without rushing upside, and his floor is lower than it may seem after a successful first run in Tampa Bay. This is right around where he should be, and if it got any higher I’d start viewing it as pricy. But there’s no reason for him to move up or down much aside from a big injury to Evans or Godwin.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Trey Palmer, WR (ADP: N/A): Palmer had some flashes last season, and while he is probably just a guy, I am not convinced that rookie Jalen McMillan is just going to march straight into the Bucs’ WR3 role. Evans and Godwin are the players to have in this passing game, but an injury to Godwin, who has been nicked up from time to time, could push Palmer inside and lead to playmaking opportunity. It’s a long shot, but hey, these are “deep” sleepers right?

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Cade Otton, TE (ADP: 191, TE25): Otton is the definition of a streaming TE. Do not draft him as a year-long option, because he’s TD-dependent and he has six career scores in two seasons. He can definitely spike in the right matchups though.

Bucky Irving, RB (ADP: 200, RB59): Irving was a standout at Oregon last season racking up over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and, more importantly, 56 catches and 413 yards along with two scores through the air. This could be looked at as an imminent threat to White’s dominance, but after the season he had in 2023, it’s likely more of an insurance policy to keep things humming in the event White goes down. The Bucs added Chase Edmonds last offseason and he was a non-factor, as White completely owned almost the full workload. I don’t expect Irving’s presence to change that, although he could step into a big role with one injury.

Jalen McMillan, WR (ADP: 272, WR84): McMillian was the third musketeer of the Washington Huskies’ high-powered receiving corps behind Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. His season was marred at times by injury, so his numbers pale in comparison to Odunze’s and Polk’s, but he’s also a much less versatile player. McMillan was really great on slants, flats and digs, and not much else. Those are hallmarks of a slot receiver, except that his 74.1% success rate vs. zone coverage (19th percentile) mean that he’s a bit limited even when pigeonholed into his best position. As a slot-only player, on a team with Chris Godwin, he needs an injury to open up a path for playing time, and then for Trey Palmer to not fill that role if the injury occurred. I’ll pass.