2024 Team Previews: Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Diontae Johnson, WR (ADP: 85, WR38): If you’re looking at a candidate to be the next D.J. Moore, this is the guy. Johnson has spiked in the past, way back in 2021 when he caught 107 passes for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. Those were all career-high marks, and he never hit 100 receptions or 1,000 receiving yards again or prior to that breakout. Much like Moore, the lack of production has had little to do with Johnson’s own play. Sure, he’s been a headache at times and had lapses with his hands, but overall this is a monster WR who could be a Top 10 player in the right situation.
Johnson was above the 80th percentile per Reception Perception vs. man (81st), zone (82nd) and press (85th), and while he was very rarely doubled, he beat that at an 85.7% clip too. He has a fully green route tree, with zero weaknesses, and he posted a career-high 12.7 average depth of target (ADOT), dispelling the notion that he’s a slot-only, dink and dunk guy. Johnson can do anything you need from him on the field, and he simply needs a competent QB to deliver the passes on time. Maybe you don’t believe Bryce Young is that guy, and the ADP seems to indicate most don’t. I am a long way from totally giving up on Young as a viable NFL QB, and I’d be willing to bet he’s better than every QB Johnson’s played with besides Ben Roethlisberger. Major value here.
**Jonathon Brooks, RB (ADP: 94, RB33): Brooks is a very talented all-around back who I am very excited about, especially on a team where, when he’s ready, there appears to be a three-down workload awaiting him. The problem is that he tore up his knee last season and he’s not ready to start the season on time. We do not know when he’ll be ready to roll, and whether or not he’ll have to be eased into bell cow duty. With that said, and with the known downsides of buying on injured player discounts, I’m still tempted by Brooks at this ADP.
He put up over 1,400 total yards last season at Texas with 11 touchdowns, and we know that every season rookie RBs make appearances at the forefront of the position when we look at the season’s finishes. He’s also in an offense that, while it was complete manure in 2023, is now under new, offensive-minded management with Dave Canales as head coach. Yeah, you’ll have to be patient with Brooks, but once he gets his sea legs he’s going to see volume, he will see targets, and he will be the primary option. That kind of late-season burst is similar to what we saw from Jahmyr Gibbs last season, and he was much more expensive than this.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Chuba Hubbard, RB (ADP: 140, RB45): Hubbard’s ADP is on the rise because it seems clear Brooks will miss some time, and that means Hubbard’s in line to start and see the lion’s share of RB touches. That’s probably true, but the idea of him providing value early in the season rings hollow to me. First, Hubbard’s just a guy. With enough volume he is playable for sure, but not spectacular, and in the early going when more teams are healthy, and there aren’t bye weeks, you’re probably not starting him. By the time we start having to scramble for players, Brooks will probably be back and eroding Hubbard’s workload. And if not, he’s still Chuba Hubbard. There’s not much ceiling to him, so while maybe he offers early depth/value, I’d rather gamble on a player who I see as a potential full-season hit.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Jonathan Mingo, WR (ADP: 305, WR100): Mingo’s rookie year was disastrous, as he racked up only 418 yards with zero touchdowns and was woefully overmatched as an outside receiver when his prospect profile called for him to be utilized inside. There are reports that he’s much improved heading into Year 2, which he needs to be to survive. But this is also a re-made Panthers receiving corps with Johnson able to play anywhere, and rookie Xavier Legette joining Adam Thielen as players who can hack it on the outside and push Mingo in. Now, Carolina may simply see Mingo’s big frame as an outside archetype and force the issue, which would make me uninterested in rostering him. But if they used him in his ideal capacity, this is an interesting player as depth.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
**Adam Thielen, WR (ADP: 159, WR60): Thielen’s getting long in the tooth, but give me him over Legette for the 2024 campaign. Nobody wanted Thielen last year, and as the Panthers’ de facto WR1 he put up 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and he caught four touchdowns. Of course, the big season was front loaded, but he provided crazy value for the first six weeks of the season. He caught 11 passes on three separate occasions to start the season, and from Weeks 1-6 averaged 8.2 catches and 84.8 yards while scoring all his TDs for the year. I’m not telling you to bank on him all year, but why do we believe he’s just going to fall off a cliff in 2024?
Xavier Legette, WR (ADP: 162, WR63): Legette is one of the weirder prospects I’ve seen, because he seems to be a pretty raw player in terms of his route running despite playing five seasons of college ball in the SEC. He also did basically nothing for four years before going cuckoo bananas as a super senior for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns. This production is coupled with eye-popping physical feats, insane hands and contested catch chops that will make for wild highlight plays. That’s fun for sure, but he was brutal vs. man coverage (19th percentile), and that’s a pre-requisite for fantasy success as an X receiver. Like Mingo, he projects better as a physically dominant slot option; he beat zone at an 81.4% rate last year (62nd percentile) and had an 80% success rate on slants, and 76.9% success rate on digs. But his size is intoxicating, as are the phenomenal catches.
I see that, and I’m not fooled. He’ll be fun to watch YouTube compilations of, but I don’t see a fantasy option we can trust.
Bryce Young, QB (ADP: 212, QB28): Young’s season was an abject disaster, no way around it. He looked too small to be out there, his trademark accuracy didn’t translate (11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) and he didn’t run very much to supplement the meager passing production. He was also playing behind an abysmal line and throwing to a receiving corps headlined by 32-year old Adam Thielen and some big, raw receivers playing out of position, or who plain stunk. Young’s irrelevant in most formats, but for two-QB leagues and dynasty players there is still upside. Canales is known to fix broken QBs, and the weaponry is upgraded. I’m particularly excited about giving Young a bona fide WR1 talent like Johnson, as we’ve seen guys like A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs lift up young QBs before.
Miles Sanders, RB (ADP: 274, RB74): I get it, film junkies hate Miles Sanders. I’m not much of a deep diver into tape. I rely on smarter men and women than myself to do that, and then I take that work and apply everyman logic to it. As bad as he may seem at times, he’s a fast dude who has been productive before in the NFL. While folks spend a pick on Hubbard in their draft, I’ll wait to see the division of labor in Week 1, and perhaps throw a waiver wire add on Sanders if he sees more work than everyone expects.