2024 Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Bijan Robinson, RB (ADP: 5, RB3): Robinson was one of the most hyped rookies in fantasy in a long time, and film-wise, he did not disappoint. This is a player whose talent as a rusher and receiver is such that he could absolutely be the RB1, and No. 1 overall player in fantasy. That’s why, after a semi-disappointing rookie campaign for fantasy managers – and this is based solely on expectations, not what he actually did – his ADP has remained untouched. Anyone with eyes could see the potential for devastation every time he touched the football, and that he was operating handcuffed. Despite that, he finished the season with 1,463 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns. This was hardly a bad season by any means, but a new offensive coaching staff is in place with a prolific, veteran new QB (Kirk Cousins) and we all have our fingers crossed that Atlanta’s usage will make sense now.

Drake London, WR (ADP: 22, WR11): London, like Robinson, is a player we’re all super excited to see in an offense that doesn’t seem to operate out of spite for fantasy football  managers. The addition of Cousins, a real QB, means this offense has to put the ball in the air more. Here’s hoping that a new staff schemes up a game plan that funnels the ball to its premier playmakers, London being the biggest one.

London is a born red zone and goal line threat, so his six touchdowns in two full seasons is just criminal. He has had two very similar campaigns to begin his career, averaging 70.5 receptions, 885.5 yards and three touchdowns. Those are useful fantasy numbers, but obviously not what you need from a receiver you’re taking inside the Top 25. Drafting him at his ADP is placing a lot of faith in Cousins, coming off a torn Achilles and at a pretty advanced age, is going to elevate him to heights he hasn’t approached yet. Do you believe London’s disappointing numbers are fully the result of a badly designed offense and horrendous QBs?

There’s evidence to support that! London was over 71% against man last year (68th percentile), and in the 81st percentile (76.5%) vs. press coverage. That’s classic, high-end X receiver stuff and that’s where he spent almost all of his time last year and in 2022. Simply upgrading at QB and seeing better quality targets in the exact same role should lead to a better outcome, and more TDs. But the new coaching staff can do something fun too, and this is why even though this ADP seems to assume London’s ceiling, it’s still kind of tempting. Unlike a lot of traditional X receivers, London is elite vs. zone, checking in with an 81.7% success rate. His contested catch skills are elite, but London could be even more deadly if he was moved around the formation more and not pigeonholed into the standard X role because of his size and ability to body DBs. Those traits have obscured his gifts as a well-rounded receiver, and that latent ability makes me believe he could justify this ADP.

Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP: 66, TE8): Pitts is next up on the line of Falcons players everyone is praying a new offense will fix. While I’m in on the Bijan and Drake London redemption arcs, I’m far less convinced when it comes to Pitts, a man once thought to be a generational league-changer. Pitts has the same amount of touchdowns as London despite playing a full extra season, and after racking up over 1,000 yards as a rookie, becoming only the second rookie TE to ever accomplish that feat, has peaked at 667 yards since. Beyond that, he just has not shown to be a capable red zone/end zone weapon despite all the physical traits you could ever want in a TE. Since 2021, Pitts is second on the Falcons in red zone targets with 25, behind only London (32). He’s posted just a 44% catch rate on those targets, and scored four touchdowns, less than Olamide Zaccheaus, Cordarrelle Patterson and MyCole Pruitt. Maybe things change with Cousins, but I’ve begun to really consider the possibility that Pitts is a big, fast athlete who might just be a subpar football player in relation to other players in his draft range. Pitts is far from a value at this ADP, and while it likely wouldn’t torpedo your team, he could really damage it because not only does he represent the risk of losing weekly at a onesie position, you have to pass on strong potential contributors at RB and WR at this point.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Kirk Cousins, QB (ADP: 135, QB18): I think we all understand at this point that Cousins is an excellent NFL QB, regardless of your opinion on his fitness as a Super Bowl caliber signal caller. Did we know that he averaged the most yards per game in the NFL last season for any QB with at least six starts? Did you know that since 2012, Cousins’ rookie season, he’s tied with Aaron Rodgers for the second-most 4,000-yard seasons (7), one behind Matthew Stafford? Cousins is a prolific thrower of the football, and while he is coming off a devastating torn Achilles, he’s not a player who has ever relied on his legs to produce.

He's not ancient like Rodgers is at this point, but he’s certainly no spring chicken to be recovering from such a catastrophic malady. As far as fantasy is concerned, I believe he can hit the yardage marks that can take a pocket passer into the Top 10, but I am not sure that the touchdowns will get there. Cousins has long been a good to fine fantasy QB rather than a difference maker. I don’t think getting a year older and severely injuring your Achilles improves that stock. He will be streamable, but his greatest value is increasing the production of the talented skill guys surrounding him.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

**Tyler Allgeier, RB (ADP: 160, RB50): As hyped as I am for Bijan Robinson, I can’t help but admit that Allgeier is a value as well. We all wanted to see more from Robinson, especially around the goal line, but the truth is Allgeier was really effin’ good. I wrote more about this here, but more usage for Robinson does not mean Allgeier turns to dust. He shouldn’t!

Allgeier was PFF’s No. 7 RB, with a receiving grade that trailed only Breece Hall and Christian McCaffery. He also saw a team-high six carries inside the five-yard line, turning half into touchdowns. Allgeier will continue to get work, and potentially could remain a goal line hammer, while his league-best pass-blocking should have him on the field a ton in passing situations. His role may not be enough to make him a weekly FLEX consideration, but he’ll almost definitely outperform this ADP, and he can be a league-winner if Bijan gets injured.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

**Darnell Mooney, WR (ADP: 201, WR69): Mooney’s had chances to shine as a leading man and as a No. 2 for the Bears since being drafted in 2020, and he has only turned in one 1,000-yard season in 2021. Mooney has never caught more than four touchdowns in a season, and hasn’t caught more than 40 passes in two seasons. He’s also been in an offense largely run by Justin Fields, a notoriously inaccurate passer, and seen only 61 targets in each of those two seasons. Mooney is now in an offense that should have a functional passing game, and he is the clear-cut WR2, and very well may be the No. 2 overall receiving option if Pitts is still mid. None of this means I’m dying to start Mooney every week, but he should outperform this ADP by a good bit.

Michael Penix Jr., QB (ADP: 260, QB34): Penix was a shocking pick at No. 8 overall due to the money handed to Cousins in the offseason, but he bears mentioning because Cousins is aging and coming off such a serious injury. Should the Achilles have eroded Cousins’ ability, Penix is talented enough to step in and thrive early. He’s not mobile, so his ceiling is very limited in Year 1, but if he finds himself a starter at any point he’s certainly very relevant in two-QB and SuperFlex leagues.