2024 Team Previews: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Christian McCaffery, RB (ADP: 1, RB1): What is there to be said about McCaffery aside from he’s the absolute clear choice at No. 1 overall in any format. He has the most diverse paths to production as an elite rusher, pass-catcher and scorer of touchdowns. He sees as much volume as any RB in fantasy, and he plays in a hyper-efficient offense that is geared entirely around his skill set. In an offense where many believe there are too many mouths to feed for all of them to eat well, CMC is the guy who gets the biggest piece of meat at every meal.
We don’t need numbers, but here are some for fun. CMC has never put up fewer than 1,800 yards from scrimmage in a season in which he started 16 games. Raheem Mostert matched CMC’s total touchdowns last season (21), and finished more than 100 points behind him in half-PPR scoring. 2023 wasn’t even the best season of his career!
Of course, injuries are worrisome and he already is dealing with a calf issue this summer. Who cares? You can’t draft scared, and anyone can get hurt. As good as the top of the draft is this season, no player can reasonably be placed ahead of CMC if you assume health. It’s simply a slam dunk.
Deebo Samuel, WR (ADP: 27, WR13): Samuel is where the distribution of touches gets interesting. Samuel’s one of the more unique wide receivers I’ve ever come across in my years of playing fantasy, because so much of his value is derived from being a rusher, and so much of his risk comes from there too. Let’s begin by not shortchanging Deebo’s talent as a receiver. The damage he inflicts on defenses when he runs the ball can obscure the fact that he’s a more than capable pass-catcher. Injuries have hurt his overall stats – more on that to come – but in 2021 he played in 16 games and caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 18.2 yards per catch. That’s not even accounting for his rushing stats.
He's not the most well-rounded receiver around, but he’s a monster zone beater and the best WR in football after the catch. Then there’s the rushing. This part of his game was unlocked in 2021, and since then he has averaged 46 attempts, 274 yards and five touchdowns a year on the ground. That’s great stuff, and he’s scored double-digit touchdowns in two of the last three seasons, even though he missed games in 2023. Samuel isn’t a prototypical WR1, but when healthy, he puts up WR1 stats, which is what we care about. He also graded as a Top 12 WR per PFF, lest you remain unconvinced of his overall elite skill and still view him as gimmicky. Samuel’s health is a legit concern, and it is understandable to bypass him based on that since this ADP is very, very expensive. But if you accept the possibility of anyone getting hurt, and draft based on ability and ceiling, it’s hard not to be excited about Deebo.
**Brandon Aiyuk, WR (ADP: 34, WR16): Aiyuk is an absolute savage. In 2022, he made it clear he was one of the NFL’s better receivers, but last season he unleashed a 75-catch, 1,342-yard, seven touchdown season on the world. Yes, he was occasionally blunted by other players in this offense getting shine, but he put up 100+ yards in seven games, and scored in three games without the big yardage. He was one of the most consistent receivers last season, catching five passes in more than half his games, and going for over 75 yards in eight of them.
Aiyuk’s Reception Perception profile is insane. He finished in the 96th percentile vs. man (78.7% success), the 91st vs. zone (85.4% success), and the 97th percentile against press (83.6%). His entire route tree was green, but some standouts: 60% success on nine routes (14.6% of his routes run!), a 93.6%!!!! success rae on digs, and an 89.5% success rate on slants, which made up almost 24% of his routes. Aiyuk is a comically good receiver, and while last season was crazy, I’d be surprised if it’s his ceiling.
**George Kittle, TE (ADP: 57, TE6): I wrote here about how I can’t quit Kittle, but why would I? He is consistently proven to be one of the elite TEs in the NFL, and while his usage is sometimes frustrating, he delivers at his peak like any of the elite TEs you’re drafting much earlier. Kittle put up 1,020 yards in 2023, his third time over the 1,000-yard mark and the most efficient he’s ever been while hitting that milestone.
At the TE position, he was fourth in fantasy points per game, first in yards, first in yards per reception, and tied for second in touchdowns. He’s also scored six or more touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Kittle is a matchup nightmare, and you’ll deal with the down games for two reasons. First, everyone has them, not just him. Second, when those big games come, you’re winning your matchup. Not many TEs can prove they have that level of upside.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Brock Purdy, QB (ADP: 91, QB11): Purdy is finally getting some respect, being drafted as a QB1, but is he actually riskier than he seems? Of course, as one of the back-end starting QBs the associated risk is lower, but there is downside to Purdy despite how lethal this offense is. One thing we typically want to see from pocket passing QBs are certain benchmarks like 4,000+ yards, which he cleared, and 35+ TDs, which he came close enough to. But volume is an issue. The 49ers run the ball a ton, and that sets up a lot of Purdy’s success and helps his efficiency, but it makes his margin for error razor thin. San Fran threw the fewest passes in the NFL last season, not a typo.
Purdy led the league in yards per completion – shout out to Aiyuk, Deebo and Kittle – and he also posted a 7% TD rate, his second straight season at that number. If his efficiency drops, it’s very easy to see Purdy’s yardage or TDs dip, and that would pull him right out of that QB1 range. But, he’s still playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense with one of the deepest crews of skill players ever surrounding him. I think the low volume likely caps his ceiling at around QB7, but that would still be valuable at this ADP. This is a fair price.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Ricky Pearsall, WR (ADP: 212, WR71): Pearsall is an exciting prospect who excelled at beating man coverage at Florida (75.8% success, 87th percentile) and proved to be a hyper-efficient receiver for an inefficient Gators offense. Pearsall would likely be a fantasy contributor on Day 1 if he had the snap share, but as the roster currently stands it’s tough to see him getting on the field enough to warrant a weekly spot, or even a spot start. An injury to Aiyuk, Deebo or Kittle likely just leads to more volume for the other two. If Aiyuk is traded before the season, however, it’s much more feasible to see Pearsall carve out a fantasy relevant role. Either way, despite the roadblocks, Pearsall’s talented enough to warrant a bench spot with such a late pick.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Jordan Mason, RB (ADP: 215, RB60): Mason is the next man up with Elijah Mitchell going on season ending reserve. A CMC injury vaults Mason into must-start territory, but as good as this offense is, it doesn’t make him CMC. We haven’t seen enough of Mason to know what he’s capable of as a receiver, but he’ll get a lot of volume in this scenario and become an instant RB2.
Isaac Guerendo, RB (ADP: 253, RB70): Guerendo had a lot of buzz because of his game-breaking speed that is present in his huge body, but a hamstring injury has submarined his training camp and placed him behind the veterans that he was trying to beat out to be the CMC backup. He’s still a fine buy in dynasty leagues, but for redraft he is off the radar until he does something on the field.
**Jauan Jennings, WR (ADP: N/A): Jennings has never had monster stats, but he is a quality receiver hiding in plain sight. He ranked as PFFs No. 37 WR, not too shabby, and he did score five touchdowns on just 24 receptions as a rookie. A lot has to happen for Jennings to really get a crack at enough snaps to be fantasy relevant, but if he did get that opportunity, I believe he could be a FLEX option.