2024 Team Previews: Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Travis Etienne, RB (ADP: 18, RB8): Etienne is a big time RB on an offense that should score a bunch of points without really any credible competition in his backfield. Last offseason much was made about rookie Tank Bigsby stealing work because the Jaguars’ coaches didn’t want to overload Etienne, and instead his attempts per game rose from 12.9 as a rookie to 15.7. Etienne’s efficiency cratered with that extra work, but it’s fair to chalk that up to the Jaguars having the second-worst run blocking unit in football per PFF.

Etienne is about as safe a pick as you’ll find in fantasy. The team let Calvin Ridley leave in the offseason, once again leaving the receiving corps without a clear-cut alpha, so this offense is going to revolve around Etienne. For his part, he topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season, was given a whopping 340 opportunities in 2024 (carries + targets), and he surpassed 1,400 yards from scrimmage in both his campaigns. The RB room hasn’t changed from last season, likely because the Jaguars are thrilled with Etienne’s work, and he was tied for 7th in the NFL for receptions from the RB position. All of this is a long way of saying, go draft Travis Etienne.

Christian Kirk, WR (ADP: 73, WR31): Kirk got hurt last season, so his final numbers don’t look all that impressive, and that could mean he’s a value entering 2024. Kirk isn’t the most exciting player to draft, because he’s been around a while and we know he’s not a superstar. However, he is the team’s primary target again – probably, more on that shortly – and the last time we saw him in that role he was damn good. In 2022, Kirk was one of the first WRs to sign in free agency, and Jacksonville took crap for the money they paid him. Kirk rewarded them with 84 receptions, 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns.

Kirk isn’t your classic elite receiver who has prototype size and moves all over the field, but he is an elite slot receiver who tortures zone defenses (81% success in 2022) and has the physical tools to wreak havoc after the catch, or burn defenses deep down the middle of the field. Without Calvin Ridley on the outside demanding looks, Kirk is probably going to lead the Jags in targets this season, and the 2022 production reflects what that ceiling can look like. Also, the Jaguars made moves this offseason that allow them to maximize Kirk by using him correctly by filling those outside roles with talented guys who won’t necessarily force Lawrence to look away from Kirk. This ADP feels about right, so it’s not a screaming value, but I do think he can exceed it in 2024.

Evan Engram, TE (ADP: 71, TE8): Engram looks like a value because he’s at the bottom of the TE1s according to this ADP despite catching 114 passes last season, fourth-most in the NFL. Yes, not among TEs…the NFL. As in CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown were the only players in football with more receptions than Evan Engram. He averaged 6.7 receptions and 56.6 yards per game, rock solid marks for a position that’s riddled with volatility, and that does bring value and much-needed stability to a roster.

The problem is Engram’s all floor. While the goose egg threat was non-existent, which is worth something, Engram never hit 100 yards in a game, only had one multi-TD outing, and had 10 games with fewer than 60 yards. That means as the TE8, I think he’s right where he needs to be, but he’s going around RBs and WRs that are still pretty useful players that have more upside. So for that reason, I don’t love this ADP and would be willing to assume more risk at the position by waiting longer and loading up the more important positions.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Trevor Lawrence, QB (ADP: 120, QB17): Lawrence has crossed over to many peoples’ “Do Not Draft” list because for all the hype he entered the league with, he hasn’t delivered a fantasy dominant campaign in his first three seasons. But look under the hood and you’ll see that Lawrence is going to break out at some point, and if it’s this season, the value will be wild.

Lawrence runs more than the average pocket passer, but he’s definitely in the pass-first bucket. The benchmarks for those guys being top fantasy options are 4,000+ yards and 35+ touchdown passes. Lawrence has thrown for 4,000+ yards in back to back seasons, but he’s only maxed out at 25 touchdowns. That’s no bueno, and his TD% of 2.0 and 3.7 in Years 1 and 3 are simply not going to cut it. Losing Calvin Ridley should be a blow to his stock, but bringing in Thomas Jr. mitigates that, and adding him in with Kirk, Engram, Etienne and even Gabe Davis makes this a lowkey solid pass-catching group.

Per Reception Perception, Lawrence was very accurate to every area of the field except the area right in front of the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field, and he actually showed marked improvement on intermediate and deep throws despite playing behind a middling pass-blocking unit. Lastly, while he’s not Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, Lawrence does consistently provide rushing production. He’s averaged more than four rushing attempts per game in two of his three seasons, hovered around 20 rushing yards per game for his whole career, and scored nine rushing TDs in the last two seasons. None of this means reach for him, he’s breaking out in 2024. What it means is that instead of spending a high pick on C.J. Stroud, why not accumulate depth and take a stab at Lawrence who is every bit as talented and just has a worse narrative surrounding him?

**Brian Thomas Jr., WR (ADP: 121, WR49): Thomas came in third in my 2024 rookie rankings ahead of higher-touted players like Rome Odunze and Jonathan Brooks. While I’ll often push some rookies over more talented peers based on position, and that’s part of the equation with Thomas, I also think he’s an absolute stud.

Malik Nabers drew all the drool at LSU, but Brian Thomas was the Tigers’ real X receiver turning 68 receptions into 1,177 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdowns. At LSU he mostly ran nines, curls and slants, and he was dominant on all of them with 82% success rates on the curls and slants and a 72% success rate on the nines. He’s joining an offense with a premier QB – yup, he is – in Trevor Lawrence, his competition for that spot, Gabe Davis, is very flawed, and he also brings high-end contested catch skills and after the catch playmaking. Thomas is built for what the Jaguars drafted him to do, and he’s going to contribute immediately. This is a very, very undervalued player.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Parker Washington, WR (ADP: N/A): Washington shined in very limited action as a rookie, filling in capably when injuries struck this receiver room. His path to playing time is very muddled, so I’m not expecting a fantasy relevant season, but he doesn’t appear pigeonholed into any role, so he’s next man up in several roles. It may be crazy, but I’d probably take a shot at Washington before Davis.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Gabe Davis, WR (ADP: 154, WR62): Davis was, once upon a time, looked at as a possible breakout superstar. Entering Year 5, we now know who Davis is. A downfield burner who can and will make some crazy plays, score some long TDs, and ultimately be a total non-factor for fantasy because you’ll never know when you can start him. Davis has never scored fewer than six touchdowns in a season, but he’s also never caught 50 passes, or hit 850 yards. I’m also expecting him to not see the field nearly as much as he did in Buffalo unless the Jaguars decide to deploy Thomas as a flanker. This is a very late ADP, so the negative impact of drafting him is capped, but why waste a pick?

Tank Bigsby, RB (ADP: 239, RB68): Bigsby was a big old flop as a rookie, and I don’t care about the lip service the coaches give to preserving Etienne. When push comes to shove, they want to win games, and removing Etienne from the field to give Bigsby work is just not conducive to winning.

D’Ernest Johnson, RB (ADP: N/A): I still cling to the brief snippet of playing time Johnson got in 2021 with Cleveland as hope that one day he’ll get a Raheem Mostert-esque opportunity and show everyone he was a lead back. I’m much more interested in Johnson as a handcuff than Bigsby because his skill set is more similar to Etienne’s, but ultimately there’s no back worth drafting besides Etienne.