2024 Team Previews: Houston Texans

Houston Texans 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Nico Collins, WR (ADP: 30, WR14): Collins was pegged by many as a potential breakout candidate and man oh man did he break out. Turns out when you have star receivers, pairing them with a stud QB works wonders. Stroud and Collins connected immediately, and the third-year man increased his career-high yardage mark by 816 yards. He linked his 1,297 yards with eight touchdowns and caught 80 passes in total, functioning as the X receiver. This WR corps is absolutely loaded in 2024, and while there will be some “too many mouths to feed” buzz for all of them, two things are in Collins’ favor. First, C.J. Stroud can support a lot of successful fantasy options, and second, Collins’ role is the most secure.

Collins was on the outside 83.2% of the time, destroying man coverage at a 77.6% rate (94th percentile), and demolishing press coverage at an even crazier rate (82.5%, 96th percentile). Collins was absolutely unguardable last season, and the new weaponry in Houston should keep defenses from committing all their resources to stopping him. Collins was PFF’s No. 3 receiver, so this breakout was no fluke. It was a realization of his full potential, and more good receivers in the mix doesn’t discourage me whatsoever from investing highly in him.

**Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 37, WR19): Diggs has a lot of detractors this offseason because his 2023 ended on such an extended, sour note. But as I wrote here when he was first traded to the Texans, his final stat line – 107 catches, 1,183 yards, eight touchdowns – was awesome, and through the first six or so weeks of 2023 he was still putting up elite production. Those final numbers do mask a bit of decline from him, but the move to Houston might actually be the perfect way for him to maintain big time fantasy value.

Diggs’ success fell off precipitously on nine routes, corners and digs from a year ago, suggesting that he’s lost a step when it comes to deep separation. In Buffalo, that was a problem because he was Mr. Do Everything. For the Texans, that’s what Nico Collins is for! Diggs could be transitioning to a stage where he’s more primarily a slot or slot/flanker hybrid, and the data shows he can still do that at a high level. Diggs was at 89.7% on curls, 83.9% on slants and 75% on outs. Diggs remains a master of the craft, he’s just losing a bit of juice. No biggie here, because defenses can’t afford to double him and he still was a premier man-beater (73.4%, 76th percentile). Is Top 5 Diggs gone? Most likely yes, but this is an offense that could lead the NFL in scoring, and Diggs could easily lead the team in targets.           

Joe Mixon, RB (ADP: 43, RB15): Mixon is in a new uniform for the first time in his career, and it’s hard to peg how this will play out. When healthy, Mixon has pretty much been a lock for 1,100 yards on the ground, or close to it, 1,200-1,500 yards from scrimmage, with a bunch of touchdowns. But Houston has an elite QB, three extremely explosive WRs, and was in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing attempts last year with Devin Singletary pacing them in attempts with 216. Mixon typically arrives at his gaudy numbers through volume, as his career 4.1 yards per carry mark is solid but unremarkable.

The TD numbers should be strong in an offense that figures to score as much as Houston does, but that’s no guarantee, and he’s being drafted ahead of RBs who may be in lower-octane offenses, but could get more overall work. This ADP isn’t bad, but it’s also not jumping out at me. I’d rather target RB earlier and get more security while skimming these rounds for WR value.

C.J. Stroud, QB (ADP: 50, QB5): Stroud is everyone’s darling, and rightfully so after an insane rookie year, but we should probably pump the brakes slightly. While I have zero doubt that Stroud could justify this ADP, there’s no certainty that he will, and he’s going well before guys like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert who have done it and simply did not in 2023.

Stroud crushes big boy throws to the intermediate and deep parts of the field, a.k.a. where the fantasy magic happens. He has baller ass receivers to make the most of his gorgeous throws. But it’s worth noting that while he surpasses 4,000 yards, a key mark for pocket passing QBs to be fantasy game changers, he only threw 25 touchdown passes. That doesn’t mean he should be knocked, it just happens sometimes, and if that happens in 2024 at this ADP you’re going to be sorry you took Stroud here. I absolutely love this player, but the ADP scares me off.

Tank Dell, WR (ADP: 65, WR29): Dell is the presumed No. 3 receiver on this team, but a third option being in the Top 30 tells you what people think of this offense. As a small guy, it’s easy to assume Dell is the slot receiver. His game couldn’t be more deceiving. Dell was a monster vs. man coverage, winning 72.8% of the time (74th percentile) and he averaged 15.1 yards per reception. He was over 80% on corners, outs and digs, and he posted a 77.8% success rate on contested catches. If anyone’s volume is will suffer with Houston becoming a three-headed receiver monster, it’ll be Dell, because his ADOT is a full four yards more than Collins or Diggs. Dell is going to make more chunk plays than those two, but the hit rate on his targets is significantly lower, and that’ll mean down games. His size also does limit him vs. press coverage, even though he shreds man, which limits his ceiling just a bit. I am a believer in the talent, and he’ll be a fantasy asset, but I do believe this ADP is a tad high for a third banana, even if it is a very ripe banana.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Dalton Schultz, TE (ADP: 118, TE14): Schultz is a good player, in a good offense, but he’s a clear fifth option. Even for Stroud, asking him to return value on the three receivers plus Mixon is a stretch. Asking him to turn Schultz into an every-week TE is a bridge too far. Schultz will have his boom games, but he will need an outlier TD season to be someone you can plug in every week.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Noah Brown, WR (ADP: N/A): Brown is lost in the shuffle, but he’s an explosive player who went nuclear a few times in 2023 when he had opportunity. Anyone who goes for 150+ yards in back-to-back games is worth noting at least, and Brown is someone who could be worthy of adding if an injury or two strikes the receiver room.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Dameon Pierce, RB (ADP: 179, RB55): Pierce was a rookie breakout in 2022, and lost his job entirely in Year 2. With Mixon on board, it’s highly unlikely that Pierce becomes a fantasy factor without an injury, but he does seem like a high-value add if Mixon did go down.

Jawhar Jordan, RB (ADP: N/A): Pierce seems like a high-value handcuff, unlessss…Jawhar Jordan breaks through in camp and the preseason. Pierce fell off because his running style didn’t mesh well with the new coaching staff, and this staff just drafted Jordan. Stats aren’t everything, but you like to see gaudy numbers if you’re investing in a rookie. Jordan racked up 1,374 yards from scrimmage, and 1,128 rushing yards along with 14 total touchdowns. Jordan could absolutely play his way into a backup role, but neither RB is worth starting unless Mixon is out.