2024 Team Previews: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Jonathan Taylor, RB (ADP: 10, RB4): Taylor’s situation heading into 2023 was a massive bummer, because he was a clear candidate for a bounce back season except for the fact that he was mired in a nasty contract dispute, threatening to hold out for the entire season, and coming off an injury without any clarity on the progress of his recovery. Then, he signed a long-term deal, came back, and finished the season as what we expected, an elite back.
Entering 2024, we have none of those ugly issues, just a rock solid RB1 who is getting drafted too late because the world’s gone WR crazy. I say it in jest, because the WRs going in Round 1 are all great options, but RB falls off quicker than WR does, and it’s harder to find capable RBs in season. Taylor has zero holes in his game. He’s been efficient his whole career, consistently excellent, and in one of his two mostly injury-free campaigns he racked up more than 2,000 total yards. The only threat to his goal line opportunity is QB Anthony Richardson, and even with that, he should still be able to comfortably clear double-digit scores. Taylor is also playmaker out of the backfield, and at zero risk of ever being game scripted off the field.
**Michael Pittman Jr., WR (ADP: 36, WR18): Pittman is the unquestioned WR1 for the Colts, but the question will be is this a passing offense that produces enough with Anthony Richardson at QB to make him a true fantasy WR1? He’s gotten better every year, posting career-highs in receptions (109, fifth-most in NFL) and yards (1,152), with his final finish being dragged down a bit by a low TD total (4). He’s never been a big TDs guy, with his career-best mark being six, but he's also really never had an elite QB throwing his way. He won’t have that this year either, at least in a passing sense. We didn’t see much of Richardson in 2023, but what we did see was big arm talent with inconsistent quality and accuracy. Any optimism for a further breakout has to be that Pittman is simply that undeniable as a talent.
There’s an argument for it. Pittman can play all over the formation, but he’s probably best suited as a flanker because he can absolutely dominate man coverage (80th percentile, 74.8% success) and press (93rd percentile, 80.6%), but also soundly defeat zone. The one knock is that he’s subpar on nine routes (50% success), and while he has good success on other downfield routes like corners, posts and outs, he’s not asked to run them as much as slants, curls and digs. Pittman arrives at his production the lunchpail way, through volume, rather than efficiency. That could be problematic if Richardson goes the way of Justin Fields as a passer. In that scenario though, Pittman probably winds up at this ADP anyway, so he’s basically being drafted at his floor. I’m a believer that Richardson, while raw, can support a Pittman breakout and I love the talent. I see value.
Anthony Richardson, QB (ADP: 50, QB6): I changed my tune about Richardson as the summer progressed in 2023, and the brief snapshot of him we got as a rookie was super exciting. I wrote a longer case for him breaking into the elite tier here, but long story short, he runs man. Richardson didn’t even play four full games, but he rushed for 136 yards and four touchdowns. His passing will be up and down, but he averaged 34.6 yards per game and scored two of his four rushing touchdowns from 15+ yards out. As a rusher, he’s the closest thing we’ve seen to Cam Newton since Josh Allen, and Richardson is faster than Newton was.
Make no mistake, the passing was rough. His 577 yards, and three touchdowns vs. one INT look fine for a rookie, but his 59.5% completion rate is gross. His 63.2% adjusted accuracy raises red flags, and he was wildly inaccurate compared to his peers to some key parts of the field, even when accounting for the limited sample size. And despite all that, I’m very comfortable drafting him at this ADP because the Colts are built to maximize him. He’s got a star RB, he has an all-around beast as a WR1, and he has complementary pass-catchers in Josh Downs and rookie A.D. Mitchell. His offense is being built by Shane Steichen, who took a similarly raw passer in Jalen Hurts once upon a time and made him into an MVP. At worst, we’re looking at Justin Fields, who was a very successful fantasy QB for the majority of the time he was a starter.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
**Josh Downs, WR (ADP: 146, WR58): Downs is a really good player. He is a bit pigeonholed as a slot receiver because he’s a small dude, but even if that’s all he is in 2024 he still could way outproduce this ADP. Downs ate up zones at an 82.5% clip per Reception Perception, which is going to be valuable because you can’t play much man vs. a QB like Richardson who can make house calls from anywhere on the field.
As a rookie, Downs was limited to short stuff like curls, slants and flats, and he was wildly successful in doing those things. He also cooked man at a 77.5% clip, placing him in the 93rd percentile and offering hope that he actually might be a highly productive flanker. His talent is obvious, and his ability to separate should ensure his ability to produce in half-and full-PPR formats because Richardson is inaccurate and will need wide open receivers. My only concern about a breakout season is Richardson. He’s so prolific on the ground, as is Taylor, that I’m not sure this offense can support more than one every-week option in the passing game, and that option will be Pittman. Still, Downs is a major value in deeper leagues, and certainly has the upside to demolish this ADP as long as his current ankle injury doesn’t linger.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Adonai Mitchell, WR (ADP: 161, WR61): Mitchell was a bit of a steal based on his profile because he has some off field/personality concerns, but who am I to make any judgments on that? I’m just looking at players, teams and fits, and A.D. Mitchell with the Colts is beautiful. Pittman and Downs are both talented separators whose biggest issue is downfield. Enter Mitchell, a guy whose route tree was 20.8% nine routes. That’s an insane number, and his 58.2% success rate is really good. He was in the 84th percentile in college against man coverage, making him an ideal complement to Pittman as a flanker and Downs as a slot target hound. Volume is unlikely to be Mitchell’s friend as a rookie, but he’s going to get thrown to enough to be a factor, because Richardson’s going to want to show off his bazooka.
This receiver room is very thoughtfully constructed to assist a raw, athletically superior QB. I think Mitchell will have moments, and can show a pretty high ceiling if injuries occur and he has to take on a bigger load.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Trey Sermon, RB (ADP: 294, RB79): Sermon is allegedly the handcuff to roster for Taylor, but after three seasons of nothing as a former third rounder out of Ohio State, I’m not wasting a pick.
Alec Pierce, WR (ADP: 326, WR103): Pierce has real skill as a deep threat, but he hasn’t evolved enough in the other facets of the position to be anything more than a specialist. Now that Mitchell is here, I see Pierce losing snaps and that’s devastating to the potential for fantasy value since he’s already mostly targeted on low-success throws.
Evan Hull, RB, (ADP: 320, RB82): Hull interests me more than Sermon as a handcuff because of his fairly prolific receiving history at Northwestern, but realistically if Taylor goes down, Richardson is the primary rusher for the Colts.