2024 Bad Values: Patrick Mahomes is an All Time Great, But He's A Flat Out Bad Value

Patrick Mahomes is unquestionably the best QB in the NFL, so it shouldn’t be all that surprising that his current ADP of No. 35 overall places him at No. 3 among QBs. Mahomes has shown that, at his best, he can put up record-breaking numbers and be a league winner. But I’m going to go against the grain here and advise against taking the best QB in football on Draft Day if this is still his ADP, because at this price the risk outweighs the reward.

He won a Super Bowl last year, but Mahomes only threw for 4,183 yards, his lowest total since 2019 in which he missed a game, and 27 touchdowns, the lowest mark since that same campaign. He also threw a career-high 14 interceptions, and saw his TD% drop almost two full points to 4.5. Mahomes was dealing with the worst WR corps of his career, but he also faced defenses that had adapted to his play style, and he experienced massive drops in yards per game (261.4, lowest of his career by 22.6 yards, yards per attempt and yards per completion. Of course, I’m painting a negative picture of a historically great player, but the point is that his floor is lower than we realize. This was a player who was going No. 18 overall last season, so while his current ADP reflects a drop, he’s still going way ahead of players who outperformed him by a good amount in 2023.

The biggest knock of mine on this valuation of Mahomes is that he needs to be flirting with records to compete with the other elites at the position, because he doesn’t run like they do. The fantasy community recognizes the value of rushing at the QB position, which is why Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are being taken ahead of Mahomes, but they’re still placing him ahead of Lamar Jackson (No. 38, QB4), and Kyler Murray (No. 68, QB10). With the baseline those QBs can provide, they’re simply safer options than a primarily pass-first QB like Mahomes, even with the tremendous upside he presents. Because, and we’re just talking facts here, as high as that upside is we’ve only really seen him go Super Saiyan to the point he’s outpacing the rushing QBs twice. Mahomes has thrown for 40+ TDs twice in his career, including a 50-TD season in 2018, but he’s typically in the high 30s with a lot of yards. Those are very good numbers, and surefire season-long starter numbers, but are they third round of a fantasy draft numbers?

Take a look at this comparison between Mahomes and other QBs with similar pass-first play styles and how he compares.

Attempts Yards TDs INT TD% Y/G

Mahomes 597 4183 27 14 4.5 261.4

Burrow (’22) 606 4475 35 12 5.8 279.7

Stroud 499 4108 23 5 4.6 273.9

Jordan Love 579 4159 32 11 5.5 244.6

Dak Prescott 590 4516 36 9 6.1 265.6

Tua Tagovailoa 560 4624 29 14 5.2 272

Mahomes ‘22 648 5250 41 12 6.3 308.8

His 2022 season is thrown in to remind us all that, yes, the ceiling is absurd. But his general numbers are in line with what Dak Prescott did last year; Prescott is a consistently excellent fantasy QB as well, and he’s currently the QB9 at No. 61 overall despite throwing nine more touchdowns in 2023. Even Tua Tagovailoa was basically the same QB as Mahomes last season, with 441 more yards. Tua’s in the same exact environment as last season, with increased firepower in the form of rookie WR Malik Washington and a possible increased role for RB De’Von Achane, and he’s not even being drafted as a QB1 in 12-team leagues. Why not just draft Tua rounds later, and pick off guys like WR D.K. Metcalf, Mahomes’ teammate RB Isiah Pacheco, or even a TE like Trey McBride in the same range?

Now, in fairness, 27 touchdowns was low. The Chiefs improved the receiving corps dramatically by acquiring Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, and they should see continued improvement from Rashee Rice assuming he doesn’t misbehave his way off the field. But Travis Kelce remains the linchpin of the pass-catching crew, and he’s the same age as Rob Gronkowski, who has been retired for two full seasons. Mahomes is just not hitting that ceiling enough to justify this high of an ADP, when there are players who, more often than not, will put up comparable numbers at a cheaper draft cost. Patrick Mahomes is a historically great player, who is just not a great value for fantasy managers.