2024 Bad Values: Kyle Pitts' ADP is Mind Boggling Based On Who He's Ahead Of

Kyle Pitts has been a consistent disappointment for the past two seasons since an intriguing rookie season in which he racked up more than 1,000 receiving yards. All of the blame can’t be laid at Pitts’ feet, as he’s dealt with frustrating play calling under now-gone head coach Arthur Smith as well as putrid QB play among the worst in football, but his current ADP still hasn’t dropped to a sensible point. Let’s make the case that will save you from overdrafting Kyle Pitts on Draft Day.

Entering the league as a Top 10 pick with physical tools that are unheard of for the position will generate a lot of buzz. Pitts was viewed as a generational prospect at the position, and then piled up the second-most yards in NFL history (1,026) for a rookie TE. His TD luck was poor, as he found the end zone just once in that campaign, but he appeared on track to be a game changer for years. In the following two seasons combined, Pitts has amassed three fewer yards than he did as a rookie, and failed to reach the 60-catch mark. Pitts has never played a full season, caught 70 passes, scored more than three touchdowns or had a multi-TD game. For fantasy managers since that first year, he’s been a colossal bust. And yet, as of this writing, the fantasy community is undeterred.

Entering last season, Pitts’ ADP on Draft Day was No. 58 overall, and the TE5 in half-PPR formats. Today, he is…No. 61 overall and the TE6. Pitts is the final boss of how much draft pedigree and physical tools can keep fantasy managers returning for more pain. As much as Pitts had working against him the past two seasons, some of this is on him. Pitts was in a run-first offense, but Atlanta threw the ball the eighth-fewest times in the NFL last year, not dead last. Pitts, for all his athletic gifts, just isn’t getting open enough because he drew only 17% of the Falcons’ 508 targets and was targeted only four more times than RB Bijan Robinson. Touchdowns in the passing game were a struggle across the board for the Falcons, but Pitts found himself tied for fourth on the team in rushing/receiving touchdowns behind Robinson, RB Tyler Allgeier, and quarterback Desmond Ridder. Unlike his teammate Drake London, Pitts did not flash via explosive plays or volcanic eruption games. Pitts posted two or fewer receptions six times in 2023, had only one game all year with more than five receptions, and went under 50 yards 13 times.

We’re at a point where we are potentially conflating impressive physical attributes with actual football talent that translates into production. Kyle Pitts is extremely fast for his size, he’s strong, and he can leap. But through three seasons, those gifts haven’t turned into touchdowns, and only manifested into a useful fantasy campaign once. Of course, if it clicks we could see a monstrous, league-winning season. But we’ve never seen him come close before, and that makes it difficult to justify an ADP that’s ahead of Evan Engram (No. 68), George Kittle (No. 72), and David Njoku (No. 93) among others.

Kittle was PFF’s No. 1 graded TE, playing in the NFL’s best offense, arguably. Kittle put up 1,000+ yards for the third time in his career, and doubled Pitts’ touchdown total. Engram led the position in targets (143) and receptions (114) and had one more touchdown than Pitts. Njoku scored more touchdowns in a three week stretch from Weeks 14-16 than Pitts has ever scored in a full season. None of these players are slouches athletically, so why would they be going after Pitts in a redraft scenario?

TE is a tough position to fill. Most managers end up having to pay a stiff premium for the top guys, or deal with muddy streaming waters until they overpay via trade for a stable option. So the upside of paying slightly less for a player with Pitts’ perceived upside is attractive. I’m not totally against the idea of Pitts popping and being a big time contributor. The problem is that he’s been all risk for three years with no reward, and the price isn’t dropping enough! Pitts’ production alone makes him a borderline Top 12 TE, and he’s currently the TE6, experiencing almost zero discount from his ADP last year coming off an awful season. Unless that changes, drafting Pitts at this ADP, over options like Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed and Rhamondre Stevenson, is probably kneecapping your fantasy team’s potential before a single snap occurs.