Low Risk, High Reward: Brian Robinson Jr. A Rock Solid RB2 Hiding in Plain Sight

Brian Robinson Jr. was underrated entering last season, with an ADP of No. 88, and outperformed the draft position by finishing 70th overall in half-PPR scoring as the No. 22 RB. Now the Commanders have a stud rookie QB in Jayden Daniels taking over the reigns of an offense with an overhauled coaching staff, and Robinson’s ranked…36th? What’s going on here? Robinson showed off a more well-rounded game than anyone expected, beat his ADP and will be playing in a better environment and has somehow lost value? Let’s dig in, because we could be looking at a massive value.

Robinson’s rank as of this writing is No. 36 at the position, with an ADP of No. 107, nearly 20 spots later than it was before last season. The biggest reason for this disrespect has to be the addition of Austin Ekeler, a multi-year top pick for fantasy managers before he flopped in 2023. Of course, when big-name star RBs enter a backfield it’s rarely good news for the incumbent. That goes double when your perceived as a big bruising back and the big name joining you is a receiving back, because that often means your snap count and usage is about to be capped. Clearly, that’s how fantasy managers are reading this situation, and I’m here to remind you to thank these people. They’re handing you a steal in your draft.

Robinson may look like a hulking goal line hammer, but he’s way more than that. He ranked inside the Top 25 of PFF, checking in at No. 23 with a 75.3 overall grade. He came into last season expected to be the early downs man ceding work to Antonio Gibson, but he ended up with a very strong 71.4 receiving grade, and ended the campaign with 36 receptions, 368 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. And even though Austin Ekeler has arrived, this is not the Ekeler whom managers were drafting in the Top 5 for the past few years. Ekeler had one of the worst seasons of his career, barely cracking 1,000 yards from scrimmage and seeing his efficiency plummet.

Ekeler’s never been a traditional star RB; he has never posted a 1,000-yard rushing season, relying instead on efficiency to put up solid rushing production while making his bones as a high-volume receiver out of the backfield. But the truth of the matter is that Ekeler’s best seasons weren’t just about usage, they were about touchdowns. This is a guy who scored 38 touchdowns combined in 2021 and 2022, and also struck for 11 scores in 2019. Last season, he scored just six touchdowns, and paired that bad touchdown luck with the worst efficiency of his career on the ground (3.5 yards per carry) with drops in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. And those latter two drops were significant; Ekeler caught 6.3 passes per game in 2022, and that fell to 3.6 last year, his worst mark since 2018. His yards per game through the air fell by more than 10 yards, and his PFF receiving grade of 57.4 reflected this slide toward mediocrity.

Robinson is ascendant, and balanced. Ekeler is aging, declining and might now be inefficient. A further blow to the lazy expectation of Robinson on early downs and Ekeler the specialist gobbling up receptions on passing downs is that Robinson is a far superior pass protector. Like, 30+ points better pass blocking grade. With an expensive and exciting rookie QB, protecting him is paramount, and Robinson is far more able to do that while also serving as a threat to catch the rock. We touched on Robinson’s receiving numbers earlier, but he can also strike for big plays as a receiver. He notched a 24-yard touchdown reception and a 51-yarder as well last year, and nearly half of his scores were from 15 yards or longer. At this stage of his career, Ekeler’s probably not built for heavy usage even in the form of pass-catching, so rather than the basic Thunder and Lightning analysis, it’s conceivable that Robinson is actually “The Guy,” and a three down back with Ekeler getting involved to give Robinson a few series off. And even then, Robinson is a better bet for goal line work than Ekeler is, even with his past track record of high TD totals.

Washington figures to be an improved offense in 2024, and they had an impressive RB have a borderline breakout campaign despite major obstacles. Now the offense is expected to blossom with a dynamic new QB, and somehow this RB has been downgraded because of the arrival of a receiving back teetering on the edge of the age-30 cliff who just had his most inefficient season? I’ll bet on the 25-year-old powerhouse, thank you for the RB2 value in a range where many managers are beginning to look at FLEX options.