2023 Team Previews: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**James Conner, RB, (ADP: 65): Conner stands out on a team that looks to have a pretty bleak fantasy outlook because his volume should be tremendous. We should always be wary of the “there’s no one else on the depth chart” arguments, but while that does factor into my feelings on Conner, he’s also very good and a proven producer. He’s not a big play guy, and he’s never gone over 1,000 rushing yards, but he’s put together 1,000+ yards from scrimmage in both of his seasons as a Cardinal despite battling injuries at times. He averaged 14 carries per game last season and caught 3.5 passes per game, which should rise with DeAndre Hopkins vacating roughly 10 billion targets. QB Kyler Murray is expected to miss time at the beginning of the season, which should force the team to lean even more heavily on him, although Murray’s absence does make this a far less dynamic offense. In 2021, we saw Conner score 18 total touchdowns. That’s nothing to bank on, as he scored eight last year, but the lack of options in this offense should ensure that Conner gets a lot of opportunity to score. With that TD upside, he could put up legit RB1 numbers, but this ADP reflects his likelier RB2 outcome. This is probably close to his floor barring injury, so he's a value.
Marquise Brown, WR (ADP: 77): Brown showed flashes of brilliance in his first three seasons in Baltimore, but was presumably held back by the league’s most run-focused offense. He flashed again last season, but did battle some injuries. He’s complicated to project this year largely because of the uncertainty at QB. DeAndre Hopkins missed the first six games due to suspension, and in that time Brown was a PPR monster. He caught 5+ passes in five of those six games, saw at least six targets in all of them, and saw double-digit targets four times. He also caught all three of his touchdowns in that stretch. Brown missed the next five games, and when he returned he still saw a healthy target share, but significantly less with Hopkins in the fold. Hopkins is gone now, meaning the WR1 job is all Brown’s, but without Murray under center the quality of targets might be among the league’s worst.
Murray is also critical to Brown’s success, because Murray forces defenses to play more zone, where Brown dominates. Brown struggles vs. man and press, which he’ll see more of until Murray returns and starts hurting defenses with his legs again. Until then, this is probably a very Conner-centric offense in which Brown delivers WR2-ish production. That’s about what this ADP prices in, but I am not sure when Murray will be back, and therefore I’m not sure when Brown’s ceiling rises.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Rondale Moore, WR (ADP: 140): Moore is rising now that Hopkins has departed, vacating 10 targets per game. Moore will see an increase in his targets, but his comically low Average Depth of Target numbers in his first two seasons are discouraging. Moore is a small receiver, and great in space, to the point that the Cardinals refuse to give him opportunities down the field. As a rookie, his ADOT was literally 1.4. Pathetic. Last season it got better, but at 5.5 yards he’s not being given a chance to make plays consistently. I’m fading Cardinals WRs as it is until Murray gets back, and even then it’ll take time for him to regain his previous form. Moore isn’t a big play threat unless his usage changes completely, he’s too small to be a red zone target, and he’s going to spend a huge part of the year dealing with subpar QB play. This ADP is a bet on targets, but if they’re low-quality targets in a bad offense without much TD upside, what are we getting?
**Kyler Murray, QB (ADP: 156): Murray has had a lot of bad press since signing his big extension, and his 2022 season was far below expectation before he got hurt, but now it seems he’s underrated. This ADP is clearly reflecting the fantasy community not knowing when he will be back on the field, but in a time when running QBs are all the rage he makes all the sense as a flyer this deep in drafts, especially if you have an IR spot or two. Murray’s small stature makes him much less of a red zone threat than other running QBs, but he still averaged 6.1 rushes per game last season, 38 yards per game which was the second-highest mark of his career and he’d scored three times on the ground in 11 games. At his best, he scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020. And while his injury history and size mean fewer designed runs for him, his insane speed makes him a lethal scrambler.
Then, throw in his passing. While Murray’s not considered an elite pocket passer or anything like that, he produces raw numbers. The Cardinals were a dumpster fire which led to the firing of head coach Kliff Kingsbury, but before 2022 Murray consistently surpassed 3,700 passing yards and threw 20+ TDs in each of his first three seasons. When he’s healthy, Murray is an elite fantasy producer, even if it doesn’t always look gorgeous. At this ADP he’s a value because he has a lot of potential to provide a late season boost.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Zach Ertz, TE (ADP: 225): Ertz will turn 33 this season, and while he’s a relied-upon option in this offense, and therefore carries PPR value, his ceiling is too low for me to get crazily excited for this super-low ADP. Yes, getting drafted as the TE29 is extreme because he’s going to beat that simply off being a safety valve for whoever is QB in an offense that lacks established options. But Ertz’ ADOT is low, his receptions are all short, and for as many targets as he sees he doesn’t score a ton of TDs. I’m not even sure there’s a clear path to a season-long TE1 finish for him, so while he serves as a super late pick for managers who missed out at the position and want to ensure non-zero performances, he’s rarely going to offer even double-digit scores. The better play is to assume more risk and go for higher reward.
Trey McBride, TE (ADP: 243): McBride, a second round pick in 2022, should be able to supplant an aging guy like Ertz in theory. In practice, he graded poorly as a receiver per PFF, and his greatest value to the Cardinals was superb pass blocking. With a poor line and shaky QB prospects in 2023, it’s hard to see him mattering.
Michael Wilson, WR (ADP: 280): Wilson, a third round pick out of Stanford, doesn’t jump off the page or screen, and he’s had big durability issues in college. But, outside of Brown, there’s no stiff competition for him and the path to playing time is obvious. Wilson has great size, and averaged 16.1 yards per catch as a senior in 2022 before injury cut his campaign short. The QB situation probably renders all pass catchers but Brown non-relevant in 2023, but opportunity is king. If he’s good, he’ll be able to take over a lot of the targets Hopkins left behind while those investing in Cardinals keep hope alive for Rondale Moore to break out.