2023 Team Previews: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Jonathan Taylor, RB (ADP: 15): Taylor is becoming the face of the issues RBs are facing getting paid in the NFL currently now that Saquon Barkley reached an agreement with the Giants. His situation bears monitoring throughout the postseason, but I am going to treat him as if he’ll be ready for Week 1 because the Colts are insistent they won’t trade him, and Taylor most likely wants to cash his checks. After being the consensus top pick entering last season, Taylor disappointed those who invested heavily. He only played in 11 games due to injuries, and finished with barely more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage and only four touchdowns. This will be a theme throughout this preview, but his decline needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as this offense was the worst in football last season.
The Colts posted the NFL’s worst Offensive DVOA (-31.7%), Weighted DVOA (-34.3%), and Pass DVOA (-23.2%), as well as the second-worst Rush DVOA (-23.2%). The once mighty offensive line was much more ordinary in the running game, and it fell apart as a pass blocking unit, ranking 28th in the NFL and blocking for a washed veteran (Matt Ryan) who was PFF’s No. 30 QB before giving way to passers who were significantly worse.
Despite all that, Taylor still averaged 4.5 yards per carry, a career-low, but still good number, maintained his receptions per game pace (albeit with a loss of nearly four yards per catch), and retained his overall volume. Now the Colts have revamped their coaching staff and will have a new QB under center, who can’t be worse than what they got last year. In fact, Richardson could dramatically open up running lanes for Taylor. There’s absolutely no threat in sight to siphon off any work from Taylor, who is still only 24 years old and very much built to be a workhorse. RBs have been in the news as teams are continually devaluing them, and that attitude does bleed into our game. Reliable, workhorse RBs who dominate touches are harder to find and Taylor is still cut from that cloth. If you can snare him at the very end of Round 1 or early Round 2, that will be a steady pillar of fantasy success.
**Michael Pittman, WR (ADP: 76): Pittman was a player I believed in wholeheartedly last year, and who did not produce at the level we’d hoped. But, as I covered in his fantasy autopsy, that really had little to do with Pittman. The man profiled as a prototype WR1, and he played like it making lemonade out of the lemons he was provided. Pittman was the lone pass catcher on the Colts worth a damn in 2022, and because of that he was relied upon for everything. That meant being peppered with short yardage targets just to move the chains, and led to a sub-1,000-yard season even though he caught 99 passes. His 9.3 yards per reception was absurdly low, and his 6.9 yard Average Depth of Target (ADOT) was pathetic. It was a product of terrible QBs, a terrible supporting cast and an offensive line that couldn’t protect for the bad QBs. When I wrote his autopsy, I noted it was impossible to measure his draft stock because we didn’t know who his QB would be. It’ll be rookie Anthony Richardson, and while Richardson could lead to a better overall offense his effect on Pittman is up in the air.
Richardson will be looked at in depth shortly, but to put it mildly, he’s a project. The good news is that Pittman is an ideal guy to hook up a raw passer with. He destroyed press coverage last season, winning 81.6% of the time and ranking in the 95th percentile. Dominant. Pittman also shredded zone at an 82.5% success rate, which is critical if Richardson is the QB because teams will get burned on the ground if they consistently run man against him. One knock is that one of Pittman’s least successful routes was the nine, which Richardson will be throwing this year because he has a cannon of an arm, but it’s a nitpick. Pittman is one of the most well-rounded WR1s in football, and he should have more opportunity to show it, even if Richardson will make mistakes. I do believe Richardson’s rawness will limit his ultimate ceiling in 2023, but Pittman should easily justify this ADP and provide value on it.
**Anthony Richardson, QB (ADP: 111): Post draft, Richardson made my Honorable Mentions list and not the Top 10. That was a mistake. I was chiefly concerned with Richardson’s development as a passer hindering his ability to run a functional offense, but realistically, a new coaching staff was brought in and he was handpicked by them, so they’re going to build the offense around his strengths. And his strength is running the football and being a freak athlete. Watching Richardson’s performances at Florida could be maddening at times, because he was often very inaccurate. In 2022 he only threw for 2,549 yards with the Gators for 17 touchdowns while tossing nine interceptions. These are really bad passing numbers for a QB who went as high as he did. It’s genuinely worrisome.
He also ran the ball 103 times at a 6.3 yard per carry clip, scored nine times on the ground, and tested through the roof athletically. We are looking at Justin Fields, but more of a freak, as a runner. Fields is a clear QB1 in drafts this season and he’s never averaged more than 155 yards per game in his first two seasons. We were very willing to draft Trey Lance as a rookie as a QB1, and he was not the athlete Richardson is, and was possibly even more raw as a passer.Now that he has the job, it’ll be almost impossible for him not to beat this ADP because of how much he'll run, and what a threat he’ll be near the goal line, especially when defenses also have to worry about Taylor. And the last edge he has over Fields is that unlike Chicago, the Colts have a legitimate WR1 for him to depend on in Pittman.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Alec Pierce, WR (ADP: 212): Pierce had flashes as a rookie, averaging 14.5 yards per catch and scoring two touchdowns, both of which were from outside the 10-yard line. He was drafted as a deep threat, and in his first season 16.5% of his routes were nines, which he succeeded on 68.6% of the time. Pierce will no doubt be an asset to Richardson, but for fantasy managers, he’s still little more than a dart throw when options are slim. Pierce was below average on basically any route that requires a ton of precision, and successful on the nines and posts where he could rely on his size and speed. He couldn’t even crack the 10th percentile vs. zone, which is fine because he is a very traditional outside receiver. That’s a useful player for an offense, but not really for us.
Josh Downs, WR (ADP: 270): Downs was a pretty prolific player for the Tar Heels in his last two seasons, catching 101 and 94 passes, respectively, in his sophomore and junior campaigns, going over 1,000 yards both times and scoring 19 touchdowns. He was more of a man-beater than zone-beater, but his success rate vs. zone coverage, 80.7%, is nothing to sneeze at. His best routes were the corner, out, comeback and curl, which specifically complement Pittman who didn’t perform as well on outs and comebacks. This WR corps has been thoughtfully assembled and should be critical to developing Richardson. Downs is an interesting dynasty league prospect, and he has a chance to work his way to redraft relevance this year, but it will take time. He’s not an option on Draft Day.