2023 Team Previews: Houston Texans
Houston Texans Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Dameon Pierce, RB (ADP: 44): Pierce will be a fascinating fantasy asset, because he was a rare late-round draft pick who ascended to immediate fantasy relevance as a rookie but had his stock cool heading into Year 2. The reason is three-fold. First, the Texans brought in a legitimate threat to his dominance of the touches in the Texans backfield. Second, they spent the No. 2 overall pick on a franchise QB, but that doesn’t guarantee off the bat that this will be a significantly better offense than in 2022. Lastly, he doesn’t fit the mold of the ideal RB1, which is a dual-threat player. Pierce didn’t come into the league with pass-catching pedigree, and caught 30 balls in 13 games, which is just okay.
Here's what Pierce did do. He averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry in an offense that barely had a QB. He ran for 939 yards in only 13 games, saw nearly 17 attempts per game and graded as PFF’s No. 17 RB while being essentially the only skill player on the team that threatened defenses. The lack of pass catching does lower his ceiling a bit, but this ADP prices him as a solid RB2. That’s what he is, and that’s what he will be even with Devin Singletary in the fold. Singletary is also a very good back, and we’ll cover that, but Houston will have to rely heavily on their ground attack in 2023 and there’s no reason to think Pierce, who logged 220 carries, won’t be the tip of the spear.
Dalton Schultz, TE (ADP: 124): After a down year in 2023, Schultz stayed in Texas, but went to a team with much less certainty at the QB position. Schultz has never been the freak athlete archetype at the position, instead relying on high passing volume and Dak Prescott’s trust. He’ll have to build that up with C.J. Stroud in Houston, and in a much worse offense with far less established receiving talent, the volume is probably not going to be there. For a player who maxed out at 78 receptions with the Cowboys, that’s not good news.
Schultz’s appeal in Dallas was volume with Prescott, and red zone opportunity. None of that is guaranteed here, and he does not have the athletic profile to make up for a volume decrease with chunk plays. As the TE13, he’s being drafted as a borderline TE1, and I think that’s just terrible value because he has a low ceiling.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Devin Singletary, RB (ADP: 134): Singletary has long been one of fantasy’s more frustrating players, not because of his own play, but because of the Bills’ refusal to commit to him long term as “the guy.” He has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in his career, consistently caught around 40 passes a season, and averaged six touchdowns over the past two campaigns. When allowed to accumulate volume, he’s delivered; in the final four games of 2021 Singletary had to assume bell cow duties and averaged 98 yards from scrimmage while scoring five touchdowns in four games. We lauded Pierce for finishing inside PFF’s Top 20, but that same link will show you that Singletary finished 18th, just one spot behind Pierce with a slightly higher rushing and receiving grade. If they’re so comparable, why is Singletary nearly 100 spots later in ADP?
It’s a great question, and one that doesn’t have a very good answer aside from Pierce delivered with a big workload, so why would Houston deviate? Singletary is going to be second on the depth chart, but he has shown he can deliver when a job belongs to him, so he could easily have a lot of standalone value with a Pierce injury as he’s the clear next man up, and he could carve out a third down/passing situation role that’s entirely his. Definite value.
C.J. Stroud, QB (ADP: 153): Stroud is coming into the Texans locker room with sterling college production, and all the physical tools needed to thrive in the NFL. But he doesn’t have established receiving talent around him, he is being protected by a bottom 5 pass protecting line last year per PFF, and he doesn’t run. So while I think Stroud has the ability to develop into a fantasy relevant QB, it’s not going to happen this year outside of as a streaming option in plus matchups. He is, however, probably good enough to support one or two pass catching options and that makes for an exciting battle among this team’s young receivers to be those beneficiaries.
**Nico Collins, WR (ADP: 161): Injuries slowed down Collins in 2022, as did being in an abysmal offense, but Stroud can hopefully unlock some latent talent. He was surprisingly effective against man defense, winning 71% of the time vs. man and 74.5% of the time against press coverage. Collins was below average vs. zones, but that’s not as big a deal as it would be for other receivers because he’s a traditional outside player and he’ll be counted on for chunk plays. Collins won 60.6% of his nine routes, which accounted for 14.5% of his patterns last year. Those will turn into positive plays if Stroud lives up to his potential. He’s a big, talented, young pass catcher who can grow along with Stroud and eventually become a pretty potent stack. This season will have it’s peaks and valleys for both players, but I do believe he could be a real fantasy WR2 in 2023, which would be tremendous value on this ADP.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
John Metchie, WR (ADP: 219): Metchie was a promising second rounder out of Alabama last year whose season was stolen from him due to cancer. Thankfully, he’s back on the field and it seems like fantasy managers still remember what he can do since his ADP isn’t quite as low as I expected. He put up 96 catches for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns as a junior at Alabama, but the big gaudy stats do hide some holes in his game. Per Reception Perception, he posted a 75.3% success rate vs. zone that only put him inside the 24th percentile, with significantly lower success vs. man and press. He posted a lot of ugly success rates on numerous routes, really only shining on curls and screens. Separation was a major issue for him, and at the NFL level that’s not likely to improve a ton. He can strike for big plays, but consistency matters for fantasy relevance, and he hasn’t shown it yet. He’s going to have to prove it before warranting a draft pick.
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, WR (ADP: 226): Dell is a small receiver who packed a mighty punch at Houston, hammering defenses for 109 receptions, 1,398 yards and 17 touchdowns as a junior. He wrecked defenses because he’s very good at separating, but his size is going to be a problem at the NFL level. He came in below 55% on contested catches, which is a rough number against college DBs. He was very good at beating press – 73.9% win rate – but that only occurred on 8.8% of his routes. Dell could very well be a PPR-friendly slot player as a rookie and develop his skills, but chunk plays and touchdowns are not things I’d look for from him in Year 1. That means he’s an intriguing guy for dynasty/deep keeper league players, but I’m leaving him alone in redraft.
Robert Woods, WR (ADP: 264): Woods was really bad last season, and while he stands out as a veteran name in a very young receiver room, I truly believe all he’s really going to do is block the development of these fresher pass catchers. Woods played in 17 games last year and only managed 527 yards and two touchdowns. He put up 556 yards and four touchdowns in only nine games the previous season. At age 31, he’s probably close to washed, and the Texans don’t have the type of talent opposite him to allow him to feast on lesser DBs. Hopefully he cedes playing time to Metchie and Dell as the year goes on and they can become fantasy options.
Noah Brown, WR (ADP: N/A): Brown doesn’t even have an ADP, and that’s not too big a shock considering the expectations of the Texans for 2023. Brown didn’t grade particularly well on PFF, barely sneaking into the Top 100, but he did have his best season last year – 43 receptions, 555 yards, three touchdowns – and he had five games with five or more catches. Drafting him seems silly, but he’s worth keeping an eye on this preseason because outside of Collins, the roles in this offense at WR seem very up in the air.