2023 Team Previews: New York Jets

New York Jets Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

**EDITED 8/16/23**

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Garrett Wilson, WR (ADP: 17): At first glance, Wilson’s ADP seems scarily high. Then you look at his numbers from 2022 – 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, four touchdowns, 64.9 yards per game, 13.3 yards per reception – and realize that all of his passes came from Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco. It’s impressive. Now, Wilson has Aaron Rodgers, one of the greatest to ever play the position, throwing him the ball. It can be credibly argued that Rodgers is a long way from his prime, but he did win back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, so even a diminished Rodgers is in another universe from the guys under center last year.

It's also important to recognize that nothing about his year was fluky. Wilson was an elite college producer, and walked into the NFL as a complete player. He was good against zones, posting a success rate near 80%, but he shined as a man-beater (74.5% success rate, 79th percentile), and was truly elite vs. press coverage (81.2% success rate, 94th percentile). That skill is going to make him exceptionally dangerous with Rodgers, because teams will try to press him – they did so 23.6% of his routes – and when he beats it, Rodgers is going to drop dimes that allow him to do damage after the catch. According to Reception Perception, “Wilson was “in space” on 11.3% of his sampled routes and went down on first contact on less than half of those chances.” It’s been a really long time since the Jets had legitimate fantasy stars, so that queasy feeling you will have in drafts seeing Wilson around this ADP is normal. But he was a PFF Top 12 receiver in 2022 as a rookie with arguably the worst QBs in football. What’s going to happen when he has one of the best ever?

Breece Hall, RB (ADP: 34): The craziest thing about Garrett Wilson winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022 is that Hall likely would’ve won it if his season hadn’t ended after seven games. Widely considered the best RB prospect in the 2022 draft, Hall definitely showed why, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and putting up 681 yards from scrimmage with five touchdowns, three of which came from 10 yards out or further. Hall was explosiveness personified, and he actually graded well as a pass blocker per PFF, meaning there’s no reason to take him off the field on third down or in negative game scripts.

Now, there are risks. Hall is coming off a major knee injury, so the possibility exists that he’s limited or less effective earlier in the season, and there’s big re-injury risk if he goes too hard, too fast. The Jets could also bring in one of the several big-name veteran running backs on the market to handle heavier loads early, and spell Hall throughout the year preventing him from maximizing touches. At RB13, these aren’t questions to just brush off. Still, his talent is tremendous, and his upside in what should be a vastly better offense than it was in 2022 make him worthy of the ADP, even if it’s not slam dunk value. The arrival of Dalvin Cook all but assures the Jets plan to ease Hall in to start the season, and could potentially use both guys as a true backfield split. Once at full speed, Hall will no doubt have the better half of that division of labor, but Cook’s not going to simply recede into mop up duty. Hall’s talented enough that he can still wreak havoc without dominance of the touches, but we’d surely prefer he had the role all to himself. Cook’s arrival means this ADP is about right for Hall, rather than a screaming value.

Dalvin Cook, RB (ADP: 70): Cook’s arrival is a big deal for this offense, because for all of the hullabaloo surrounding Rodgers’ arrival, this team has big question marks surrounding the offensive line and they’d like to not have Rodgers drop back all day long and expose himself to hits. Breece Hall is the alpha of the RB room, even with someone as established as Cook present, but Cook enables the Jets to have a dynamic playmaker available should Hall not be himself right away. There were signs of slippage in Cook’s game, but on the whole he mostly looked like himself in 2022. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry, busted an 81-yarder as a season long rush, and scored double-digit touchdowns for the third time in four seasons. He rushed for over 1,100 yards for the fourth consecutive campaign, and now should be fresher than he typically is with Hall taking on the greater portion of a time share. Cook is not going to hit that yardage mark for a fifth straight season, but he should still be a very useful fantasy option based on efficiency, with RB1 upside in the event Hall gets hurt again.

**Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP: 110): Rodgers has gotten more attention than just about any player in the NFL this offseason, and for good reason. This season with the Jets will be fascinating. He’s an all time great, and he won back-to-back MVPs very, very recently. But he has also been a headache for the Packers the last two years, and in 2022 he had a season reminiscent of 2018 and 2019 when many were writing him off. Of course, the MVPs followed those seasons, but he’s also going to turn 40 this season and he’s playing behind an offensive line that could be much improved, or could be among the NFL’s worst.

Rodgers is one of the greatest pure passers ever, and this receiving corps has one monster in Wilson, a RB who can catch the rock in Hall, and transplants from Green Bay he’s comfortable with. Rodgers won’t run at all, but he’s capable of such efficiency that I wouldn’t try to put a cap on his ceiling; it was only two seasons ago when he threw for 48 touchdowns and only five picks. Pocket passers are out of style these days, but QB15 seems reasonable for a legend who has a real WR1 again. Drafting Rodgers at this ADP makes a lot of sense.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Allen Lazard, WR (ADP: 124): Lazard has familiarity with Rodgers, and therefore is going to be interesting to fantasy managers. The thing is, he’s a very risky investment because he isn’t very helpful in half-PPR or full-PPR formats, he doesn’t pile up much yardage, and his skill set is extremely flimsy, which we’ll get into. So what’s interesting? He’s scored 14 touchdowns in the last two seasons, and while touchdowns are fickle, he’s trusted by Rodgers in those scenarios so six to eight scores is not an unreasonable expectation.

With that said, investing in Lazard will leave bruises. This player just struggles in one-on-one scenarios and can’t separate. He was in the eighth percentile vs. man coverage last season and posted a sub-50% success rate against press. He wasn’t much better vs. zone, barely clearing 70% per Reception Perception and coming in at the 10th percentile. Lazard was below average on almost every route except flats, and slants. Could Lazard be a touchdown monster? Sure, but he’s never cracked 800 receiving yards or gotten beyond 60 receptions. If the touchdowns don’t come, you’re left with a truly useless fantasy player. He’s not a smart gamble even at this later ADP, and he's not someone I want on my roster at all.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Michael Carter, RB (ADP: 214): Carter is the backup to Hall, for now, but a veteran is probably coming to shake up this depth chart and cast Carter into the fantasy shadow realm. Simply put, Carter had a chance to establish himself as a real dude when Hall got hurt, and he wasn’t good enough. His 3.5 yards per carry were atrocious, and while the offensive line was partly to blame, he had a rep as a “receiving” back and his pitiful production did nothing to disabuse anyone of that notion. His contributions as a receiver were nice, but nothing special either. He fell behind Zonovan Knight, and the Jets even brought in James Robinson with an eye toward using Carter less. The writing’s on the wall, and even injury won’t net him a three-down role. Not worth your time.

Tyler Conklin, TE (ADP: 234): Conklin weirdly has seen 87 targets in each of the past two seasons, despite playing for different teams. That stat is funny, but helpful, because it illustrates just how much Conklin is what he is no matter the team. With the same number of targets on the Vikings and Jets, he caught three fewer passes, 41 fewer yards, the same number of touchdowns and lost 0.2 yards per reception. He felt like a helpful cog of a horrible passing game, but in the end he didn’t even crack 90 targets. Maybe Rodgers’ presence helps him score more touchdowns, but this will be Year 6 for him, and he’s never had more than three. Conklin may feel like a “safe” or “boring” option, but the truth is he’s just a streaming tight end who you don’t need to draft.

Mecole Hardman, WR (ADP: 235): Hardman never developed into the Tyreek Hill-ish talent that his pure speed promised, and after four seasons the Chiefs bid adieu. Not great. Hardman couldn’t figure out how to be fantasy relevant on a consistent basis with Patrick Mahomes, so even though Rodgers is a Jet, he’s actually downgrading at QB. Hardman found a niche in the Chiefs’ offense as a weapon who could hurt defenses with manufactured touches, and he can definitely do that here if Nathaniel Hackett is creative enough. But that’s not going to be consistent enough to warrant being started by fantasy managers, and he’s never proven he has the chops to contribute regularly as a route runner.

Israel Abanikanda, RB (ADP: 254): Abanikanda had some electric plays for Pitt in his third season, piling up more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns. He can absolutely ascend to the direct backup role on this team, which, if they don’t bring in any impactful veterans, could mean fantasy relevant playing time early on. But Hall is the alpha and omega of this RB room no matter who gets brought in, and that limits Abanikanda’s ceiling unless a significant injury takes Hall out. There’s too many bodies in the mix to trust him, so he’s a wait and see guy to be left on waivers.

Corey Davis, WR (ADP: 294): Davis has been quietly efficient as a Jet, but injuries have plagued both his seasons and left him with poor season-long numbers. Based on his real life draft capital, he’s a bust, but he’s not a bad player and he’s certainly better than Lazard is. I’m not very interested in either player, but if you’re trying to throw a dart at Jets pass catchers late, Davis is the one.

Zonovan “Bam” Knight, RB (ADP: N/A): Knight was the tip of the spear for a chunk of the season, but he finished with just 300 yards and one touchdown, while averaging the same 3.5 yards per carry Carter did. The difference is that Knight was undrafted, so expectations for him were lower than for Carter. I’m not drafting either.

Randall Cobb, WR (ADP: N/A): Cobb is washed, and hasn’t caught more than 80 passes since 2014. He’s familiar with Rodgers, which is great, but he just isn’t good anymore. He will not make his mark on this team, and you can safely ignore him in drafts.