2023 Team Previews: Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 17): The Titans once again have little to get incredibly excited about for fantasy, but Henry is a constant. The fantasy community seems to be cooling on him just a bit, with some justifiable concerns. This offense fell off hard sans A.J. Brown last season, and Henry will be turning 30 and has logged over 300 carries in three of the last four seasons. In addition to all that, there’s the constant drumbeat of how he doesn’t catch the football.

Henry is also a physical freak. He doesn’t have to catch the ball because of how utterly dominant he is as a rusher, and he actually did catch 33 passes in 2022. But the rushing aspect is the key. We all want the dual threat guys, but Henry is a total outlier in that he has more volume than just about any RB in the league and he’s efficient. Yes, he’s lost a yard off his per carry peak of 5.4, but he’s still comfortably above the four-yard mark. And in those three seasons out of the last four in which he logged over 300 carries? Henry has cleared 1,500 rushing yards in all of them – cracking 2,000 in 2020 – and scored double-digit touchdowns each campaign. In fact, Henry has scored double-digit touchdowns in five straight seasons, and has 12+ touchdowns in four of them. 30 years old has represented a cliff for many RBs, but downgrading Henry entering this season is purely a narrative bet because he hasn’t shown much decline.

**DeAndre Hopkins, WR (ADP: 50): Hopkins’ free agency was a hot topic this offseason, and for a player with his pedigree the pursuit of him was pretty muted. Unlike the RB market, which is frozen, WRs are in high demand and he wasn’t getting the attention of a lot of teams that fantasy managers would’ve loved to see him land on. The Titans aren’t a dream destination in terms of play style, pace or QB situation, but the positive is there’s no doubt about who will lead this team in targets. This will remain a run-first offense, but Hopkins is about to have a huge slice of a small pie.

He’s not a young man anymore, but Hopkins is still just 31 years old and his target share with the Cardinals last year looked like that of a man with fresh legs. He played in nine games in 2022, drawing 10+ targets in seven of them, and getting 60 or more yards in all but one of those high-target outings. Reception Perception analyzed his season, and while they noticed decline from his peak years, Hopkins still proved well above average on intermediate routes, a.k.a. chunk plays, and he was only below average on nine routes. On this team, he gives Ryan Tannehill something he sorely lacked last year, a precise route runner who can get open against all types of coverages and win contested catches. Hopkins won 80% of his contested catch scenarios, so expect his TD numbers to spike this year. Hopkins can’t compete anymore with the likes of Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp, and he’s probably not a fantasy WR1 anymore, but he’ll be rock solid as a WR2, and he has the potential to end as a true WR1 if his TDs spike. Value.

Treylon Burks, WR (ADP: 97): Burks physically resembled A.J. Brown, so when the Titans traded Brown and drafted him it made some sense to think he’d fill Brown’s role. But Burks was extremely ill-equipped for that, and nowhere near polished enough be a team’s WR1. And his production reflected that. Burks caught only 33 passes for 444 yards and one touchdown in 11 games. Burks had a case for improvement on that this year based on projected target share, but that’s gone now with Hopkins in town. Burks is not going to be this team’s WR1 in 2023 without an injury, but that’s for the best for this team. Burks was a zone-crusher in college, but per Reception Perception, Tennessee needed him to be Brown, and the results were disastrous placing him in the bottom quarter of NFL receivers vs. man and press. Perhaps as a result of him learning entirely new roles, his production vs. zone cratered too, leaving him in the 24th percentile or worse vs. man, press and zone. The good news is that he dominated on slants, which he’ll run tons of with Hopkins likely pushing him inside. At his best, he was working over the middle and beating DBs in one-on-one situations, and that’s going to be his role with Hopkins on the outside. Good news for the Titans, and it will likely mean a more efficient Burks in 2023. I don’t love this ADP though, so I’d bet I don’t have him on many teams this year.

**Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE (ADP: 120): I am very high on the potential of Okonkwo, but there’s no doubt that Hopkins’ arrival cools his potential to be elite. I made the case for Okonkwo making the leap here, and while I’m happy to tout his skills again, the case did rely on a big increase in volume. That seemed necessary when Burks was the Titans’ WR1, but Hopkins is a vast upgrade on Burks, and it shifts Burks into a role where he’s more well-suited, and thus, should be more targeted.

Okonkwo averaged 14.1 yards per catch and caught 32 balls for 450 yards and three touchdowns in limited work. He only saw 60% of snaps once in 17 games, and the Titans let Austin Hooper leave in the offseason. He was PFF’s No. 8 TE last season, and leaps up to third when sorting by receiving grade, checking in ahead of Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews. He also posted a Top 5 TE DVOA (20.2%). From a talent perspective, I remain very bullish on Okonkwo, but I have become less certain he’ll see the volume he needs to make good on it.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Tyjae Spears, RB (ADP: 201): Spears put up crazy numbers at Tulane last season, amassing over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns. He’s a talented back, but he’s not fantasy relevant without a Henry injury. Spears may prove a worthy late pick. Henry has been getting nicked up lately, and when Henry is out, Mike Vrabel doesn’t shift the philosophy. Henry’s backup immediately gains RB2 potential, or even RB1 if the talent is there. There’s not enough of a guarantee that Spears is the next man up though to commit a draft pick.

Ryan Tannehill, QB (ADP: 219): Tannehill has been discarded on the side of the road and left for dead by fantasy managers, which makes some sense after the Titans burned a second rounder on Will Levis. The thing is, Levis could absolutely suck. And while Tannehill was terrible last season, the Titans did trade his top target and replace him with a raw prospect who wasn’t ready. This season, he has Hopkins in the huddle, Burks hopefully in a role where he’s in a position to succeed, and an ascendant TE who won’t be ceding opportunities to the aggressively average Austin Hooper. This isn’t a case for Tannehill as a season-long starter in one-QB leagues, but he is a big value in two-QB/SuperFlex formats.

Will Levis, QB (ADP: 286): Levis’ has a lot of physical talent, but the hard truth is that he fell in the draft for a reason and that reason is he isn’t ready to contribute right away. He never hit 3,000 yards at Kentucky, nor 25 touchdown passes, and in both seasons as the starter all year he threw double-digit interceptions. Sure, he was in the SEC, but NFL defenses are quite the step up in difficulty. Levis is going to require a lot of work, and if he does get on the field this year – no guarantee – it won’t be until late unless Tannehill gets hurt. And even then, it’s conceivable that he is third on the depth chart come Week 1.