2023 Team Previews: New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Chris Olave, WR (ADP: 28): Olave is going as the WR12, a.k.a. the last WR1 in 12-team formats. That might seem a little ambitious when put in that context, but really, there’s a pretty strong case for it. Olave only scored four touchdowns in his rookie season, but that’s not all that alarming. Touchdowns are fickle. Olave was very efficient, averaging 14.5 yards per game, and finishing the season with over 1,000 receiving yards on just 72 receptions. His 14.2 yard average depth of target was among the deepest in the NFL, and for good reason, as he was successful on 60.4% of his nine routes, which tied with curls for his most-run pattern.
Now, while Olave’s ability to be efficient and do damage downfield, that can also make some players with this profile inconsistent. If they don’t have a good enough QB, or if their QB is struggling through deep accuracy issues, they can be prone big old bust games. The Saints paid a lot of money to Derek Carr to stabilize their starting QB situation, and while he’s an upgrade on Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton, he won’t make anyone forget about Drew Brees. What makes Olave special is that while he crushed it with his usage in 2022, he’s no one-trick pony. He posted insane win rates on almost every route on the tree at all levels, ranking in the 83rd percentile vs. both man and press coverage, and clearing an 80% success rate vs. zone. And he did all this as a rookie, with Michael Thomas missing most of the season and leaving Olave as the only receiver defenses really had to worry about.
Olave entered the league as a polished receiver who is dangerous at all levels, and that should only improve. He’s received an upgrade at QB, and while Carr wouldn’t take a good receiver and make him great, he’s certainly not going to hinder Olave’s ascension. Olave can definitely justify or exceed this ADP, but this is likely the right spot for him to go, because if he continues to be most frequently used down the field there are other options on the draft board who will catch more balls than him. There are also a lot of threats around the red zone on this offense, which could depress his TD total.
Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP: 55): Kamara’s ADP is way down from previous seasons, and not just because he’s guaranteed to miss three games to start the season. We have seen some slippage from prime Kamara. Never a volume guy, as he’s never hit 1,000 rushing yards in his career, Kamara’s efficiency is officially dipping. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry in 2021, and four last season, a far cry from his peak when he was up over six yards per carry. His receiving would make up for that lost rushing volume, but in the past two seasons he’s hovered in the low-30s per game, and last year scored only twice through the air (four total TDs). At his very best, Kamara touched the ball less than most elite RBs, but he gained massive chunks when he did, and racked up fat TD numbers. The efficiency is slipping, and there are lots of options to score TDs these days on the Saints. His glory days are past him and hoping he’s anything more than an RB2, even on a per game basis, is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Jamaal Williams, RB (ADP: 96): Williams will definitely have value in all games that Kamara misses, but at only three games this ADP becomes prohibitve. Even if Williams slides right into a Mark Ingram-esque role for this team, last season’s scoring was such an anomaly that you can barely even factor it in. Williams was one of the best RBs in fantasy last season, but it was almost entirely on the back of 17 touchdowns, which is not happening again. He rushed for 4.1 yards per carry, a respectable but not overwhelming mark. He did that on a career-high 15.4 carries per game, a number he probably won’t see outside of non-Kamara games, and behind a road grading offensive line in Detroit. Scariest of all, his receptions disappeared; once upon a time he was a third down back in Green Bay with receiving chops but he caught only 12 passes in 2023 despite playing in every game. This ADP isn’t going to wreck a season for anyone, but it is a bit of a trap for managers who will pass on RBs earlier and grab him here thinking they’ve snagged a sneaky RB2. I don’t think he’s that.
Michael Thomas, WR (ADP: 104): It’s been a long time since Thomas was a stone cold lock to be the first receiver off the board, probably because he’s played three games since 2020. His fall off has been severe, but in the three games we did see him, Thomas looked like a reasonably useful version of himself. He posted 16 receptions, 171 yards and three touchdowns in three games, catching five or more passes in each game. He never dipped below 49 yards, but also didn’t get past 65, and he found the end zone in two of the three tilts. At age 30, Thomas is clearly entering his veteran possession receiver phase, as his production vs. man and zone both fell off hard in the small 2022 sample, but he remained very effective vs. press coverage. Per Reception Perception, Thomas also won damn near 90% of his contested catch situations, which is why he has a good chance to rack up a lot of touchdowns this year if he can stay healthy. Thomas is looking a bit like late-stage Adam Thielen before he completely fell off last season. In 2021, Thielen caught 67 passes for 726 yards, but scored 10 times, and the year before that he was below 1,000 yards, but scored 14 touchdowns.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Kendre Miller, RB (ADP: 134): Miller is certainly a promising prospect, but the hype train on him has gotten a bit out of control. Opportunity is king is a phrase I use often, and while rookie RBs make impacts every season, opportunity is the chief reason for that. With Kamara only missing three games, and Williams in the mix, it’s unclear how Miller gets enough reps to be very fantasy relevant. Kamara’s primary value is as a pass catcher, and Williams’ 17 touchdowns proved his worth in short yardage, and that’s not to mention Thomas’ prowess, Olave’s skill and the army of TEs that can score. Without injury, where is the path for Miller to be on the field, especially when he’s already battling injury himself. Miller’s ADP is deep enough that he won’t kill you, but it looks like a wasted pick in redraft.
Derek Carr, QB (ADP: 146): New jersey, same Carr. He’s a solid starting NFL QB, and I’ve been roped in by promising metrics in the past. Not anymore. What you see is what you get, and with a competent skill group around him here, you’ll get around 3,500-3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns. You won’t lose because of him, but you’ll rarely win because of him. He’s a really nice QB2 in those formats, but aside from that, he’s a high-end streaming QB.
Juwan Johnson, TE (ADP: 165): Johnson is a hulking man, and someone whose TD upside I’d really be interested in if he wasn’t one of three quality TEs on the Saints. Johnson has scored 11 touchdowns in the last two seasons on just 55 receptions. It’s what he does, but the issue is that he doesn’t really do anything else, so when he doesn’t score, he’s useless for fantasy. When a player averages 2.6 receptions and 31.8 yards in their best season, they need to be in the double-digit touchdown range, which he’s never done before.
Taysom Hill, QB/TE, (ADP: 181): Hill is more interesting than Johnson, even though as a “tight end” he doesn’t even catch passes. Hill is truly his own position entirely; he ran for 575 yards and seven touchdowns, caught nine balls for 77 yards and two scores, and threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns. He almost always is on the field near the goal line, and while he doesn’t always get the ball, he’s a threat to and often will motion into the backfield and just take direct snaps away from the QB. Unlike Johnson, Hill’s spike weeks are big enough to compete with the upper echelon TEs when they happen, so while I wouldn’t advise rostering Hill as your every week TE I do understand the temptation.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
A.T. Perry, WR (ADP: N/A): Perry, a sixth-rounder out of Wake Forest, is probably not going to be fantasy relevant. But this is a deep cut, and there’s a clear path to playing time if Michael Thomas gets hurt, which is always possible. The big knock on Perry is drops, and they can get you benched. But he’s also highly productive, putting up over 1,000 yards in his final two NCAA seasons, scoring 26 touchdowns in those two campaigns and, critically, crushing man coverage to the tune of a 70.7% success rate. He even mashed double teams, succeeding 60% of the time in those situations. He’s a prototype outside receiver, competing with guys like Tre’Quan Smith for run as the WR3 on this team so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him get on the field and contribute. Enough to be fantasy relevant? Eh, probably not but stranger things have happened.