2023 Team Previews: Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 10): Chubb is not a pass catcher, and it doesn’t matter at all. Nick Chubb is the NFL’s best pure rusher, and even though he spent a good chunk of his time with the Browns dealing with Kareem Hunt vulturing touches he’s still gone over 1,100 yards in every year of his career. In 2022, Hunt’s role diminished and Chubb put up career-highs in carries (302), yards (1,525) and touchdowns (12, tied with 2020). Chubb was PFF’s No. 3 overall RB, ranked first in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (340), first in RB DVOA (19.3%) and second in Effective Yards (1,792). Chubb has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry in a season, and has averaged at least 88.9 yards per game in each of the past four seasons. Simply put, there isn’t a more rock solid RB in the NFL that you can draft, and his upside is only enhanced by having Deshaun Watson under center for a full campaign giving defenses another thing to worry about.

Amari Cooper, WR (ADP: 41): Cooper had one of the best seasons of his career in 2022 despite Cleveland’s offense not being particularly potent through the air, and Watson’s return being a big old dud. Cooper is known for being a roller coaster ride to good final numbers, and his year-end production was robust – 78 receptions, 1,160 yards, nine touchdowns, and his 14.9 yards per catch tied his career-high established in 2015 as a rookie. Surprisingly enough, Cooper actually was better with Jacoby Brissett from Weeks 1-12 than he was after Watson took over in Week 13. Prior to the switch, Cooper averaged 5.2 receptions and 72 yards per game and scored seven touchdowns. Post-Watson, those numbers dipped to 3.5 receptions, 61.3 yards and he only scored twice. The smart money is on Watson playing much better this year, with a full training camp and more than a year of rust shaken off.

The reason for pointing out that Cooper was better with Brissett than Watson isn’t a red flag about 2023, it’s made to highlight that Cooper made himself better and thrived with a lesser QB, and the numbers dip was more about Watson getting back in a groove than Cooper returning to Earth. Per Reception Perception, Cooper posted career high success rates vs. man (71%) and press (71.4%) while improving upon his zone success rate from 2022 which had traditionally been his strength. The improvements he made were very visible, as he was much more consistent than he usually is. Cooper put up 100+ yards five times, and 70+ yards nine times,  a.k.a. more than half his games. He caught at least five passes seven times, lending more consistency than Cooper managers are used to. At age 29, Cooper feels older than he is, and with Watson likely to be closer to his All-Pro self than whatever the hell he was last year, Cooper could definitely provide value on this ADP as Watson’s lead target.

**Deshaun Watson, QB (ADP: 82): Watson was absolutely abysmal last season, going 3-3 upon returning to action and causing the Browns offense to implode. It’s very simple, and probably accurate, to attribute this to being rusty after missing more than a year of action, but it was unsightly. He averaged 183.7 yards per game, down from 301.4 in 2020. He threw five interceptions in six games after throwing only seven in a full season in 2020. His completion rate was a ghastly 58.2%. That’s why he’s a value.

Look, it won’t be fun rooting for him. But this is a player who, at his peak, averaged 301 yards per game and close to 30 rushing yards. Watson averages 5.7 rushing attempts per game for his career, and has scored as many as seven times on the ground. He’s going to have a full training camp now, and his receiving options have been upgraded; no one on this team is as good as DeAndre Hopkins was, but this is probably the deepest pass catching corps he’s ever had. He can absolutely finish as the QB1 in fantasy, so while the floor is obviously lower than, say, Patrick Mahomes, that’s the ceiling Watson has and he comes far later in the draft.

David Njoku, TE (ADP: 93): Njoku, physically, is everything you want in a TE. But for all those tools, he just has not put together a dominant fantasy season yet and entering Year 7 it’s fair to question if he’s ever going to hit the ceiling many of us believe he has. He’s being drafted as the TE10, so I can easily see him surpassing that in terms of his finish, but at pick No. 95 he’s going ahead of Jahan Dotson, Rashaad Penny, Khalil Herbert and Gabe Davis. I’m not comfortable passing on upside like that for a player who has failed to score more than four touchdowns in a season in six years.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Elijah Moore, WR (ADP: 108): Moore’s had a turbulent two years with the Jets, and while this ADP isn’t prohibitive, it’s also basically theoretical. Opinions on Moore span a wide spectrum, but what is objectively true about this player is that in two years he’s never caught 50 passes, reached 550 yards, or averaged 50 yards or four receptions per game. There are mitigating factors of course; he’s been saddled with some of the worst QB play and offensive coaching in the NFL and battled injuries as a rookie.

There’s also the case that under the dilapidated hood of this statistical vehicle, there are some impressive traits. Moore beat up man coverage at a 72.7% clip despite physically profiling as a slot receiver, and he spent the early part of the year on the outside often trying to catch horrible passes from Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco. Now with the Browns, they can easily shift Cooper into the slot more where he’s excelled in the past and let Moore beat DBs on the outside while Watson throws him the ball. I put stock in Moore’s underlying productivity, and I believe he will return value on this ADP. It’s probably a little high based on his career production thus far, but if you like a guy, scoop him up and don’t worry if it’s “early.” We aren’t talking about the first three rounds, so get your guys.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR (ADP: 196): The Browns sure tried to turn the speedy outside receiver into a guy, and he just isn’t that dude. DPJ is a fine depth receiver for a real life NFL team, but he turned 96 targets into 61 catches, 839 yards and three touchdowns. He’s one-dimensional, and with Cooper and Moore able to be versatile, Njoku able to be a threat in the middle of the field, and the offense revolving around Chubb, there’s no path for the volume he’d need.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Cedric Tillman, WR (ADP: 323): Tillman looks like he was brought in to do what Peoples-Jones was asked to do last season. He spent five seasons at Tennessee, so if he’s good, he’ll be good on Day 1. Durability is a big question mark, but talent is not; in the one season where he played more than six games, he put up 1,081 yards, scored 12 touchdowns and averaged 16.9 yards per catch. Even in 2022, in which he only made it through six games, he piled up 417 yards and three touchdowns. Tillman is probably not going to be able to consistently get enough volume to be relevant weekly, but he’ll become interesting if Cooper or Moore get hurt.