2023 Team Previews: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Miles Sanders, RB (ADP: 48): Sanders was one of the most obvious values in last year’s drafts playing behind Philadelphia’s insane offensive line and coming off a zero-touchdown season that was screaming for positive regression. He scored 11 last season, and while we should not bank on that again with Sanders on a new team, the Panthers were far from a bad landing spot. Carolina ran the ball 483 times last season, 12th in the NFL, and that persisted even after trading superstar Christian McCaffery. They do not have a premier rusher at the QB position to vulture TD opportunities from him, although that can work against him too, since rushing QBs open up rushing lanes. They also don’t have anywhere near the talent in the receiving game that the Eagles had, which means Sanders should be the focus of the offensive attack in Year 1 for QB Bryce Young.

The lack of elite receivers could also mean more targets for Sanders, who hasn’t been much of a contributor in the passing game the least three years, but who did catch 50 balls as a rookie. There could be value here, as he’s only the RB20 right now, but overall this just looks like the right area for him to be drafted.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Adam Thielen, WR (ADP: 134): The Panthers’ receiving corps is pretty ugly, evidenced by Thielen leading the way in ADP. Once upon a time Thielen was a bona fide WR1 for fantasy managers, but Father Time is definitely winning this battle. Thielen’s dropped below 800 yards for two straight seasons, and in 2023 his TDs finally dipped. The presence of Justin Jefferson obviously can have a negative effect on other receivers on the team because of how much he monopolizes targets, but Thielen only caught 70 passes for 716 yards in an offense that threw the third-most passes in all of football. He barely cracked PFF’s Top 70 WRs and only the No. 43 WR DVOA (0.2%). The good news, though, is that his ADP has dropped so far that there’s a path to value for him. While on paper he’s the WR1 for this team, I don’t think he’ll lead the team in targets. What he will do is lead the team in red zone targets. Thielen might not do much better than the 67-74 receptions he’s put up the last three years, or the 700ish yards, but he could return to a high-TD total. I think he makes for solid WR depth.

Bryce Young, QB (ADP: 140): Young is small. That was basically the only knock on him throughout the entire draft process, and for most of that time it seemed like he wouldn’t be the No. 1 pick. But if size is really the only flaw in his game, does it make sense to discard everything else he offered? Carolina wisely decided no. Young threw for 79 touchdowns and only 12 picks in two years as Alabama’s starter, and piled up over 8,000 passing yards in his college career in the toughest conference to play in. Young is not a redraft option this year because the receiving corps is not up to snuff, and he projects to offer almost nothing on the ground. But he should be competent right away and be an overall benefit for these middling receivers. As for dynasty leaguers, Young has a ton of upside.

D.J. Chark, WR (ADP: 179): Chark was an exciting downfield threat once upon a time, but the truth is he’s just bad. His Reception Perception charts are a murder scene. He’s supposed to be an outside man beater, but he only posted a 51.6% success rate vs. man coverage. And while beating zone isn’t his forte, he was in the lowest percentile possible against zones at 57.6% success. The only route he ran that wasn’t below average was the Out, and it made up just 3.6% of his routes run. He’s bad, don’t draft him.

**Jonathan Mingo, WR (ADP: 182): Mingo doesn’t have a ton of college production to tout, as he set career highs in yards (861) and touchdowns (6) last year which pale in comparison to other prospects. But a deeper dive into his profile thanks to Reception Perception highlighted that he was misused at Ole Miss, and performed much better in the role that he looks like he’ll fill for the Panthers.

Mingo’s big (6’2, 215 lbs.), but despite looking like A.J. Brown in the uniform, he was pretty poor on deep routes like nines, posts and corners. He crushed it on slants and curls though, and used his size to punish defenders after the catch while also using his athleticism in space. Mingo was miscast as an outside receiver in college and it hurt his production. If the Panthers utilize him as a jumbo slot receiver, with a surgeon under center like Young who can lead him and get him in space, Mingo can easily lead this team in yardage and targets. At this ADP there’s very little risk, but tons of upside.

Hayden Hurst, TE (ADP: 194): Hurst has a path to low-end TE1 value in this offense because of a lack of premier pass-catchers, and uncertainty as to whether or not Mingo will be a thing. TEs can be a young QB’s best friend, but we can’t ignore that Hurst is entering Year 6 of his career, and playing for his fourth team, and he’s only gone over 500 yards once. He’s probably a spot start option in very plus matchups at best, and not someone any manager should be drafting.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Terrace Marshall Jr., WR (ADP: 302): Marshall is another big outside receiver like Chark who looks the part, but massively underwhelms on the field. When this team was begging for someone to step up, Marshall tried to fill the void but only got past 60 yards twice. He’s only hanging around because they spent a second round pick on him, but fantasy managers don’t need to pay attention to him.

Laviska Shenault, WR (ADP: N/A): Shenault really flashed as a rookie with 600 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games, but since then his game has really fallen off. His game is reminiscent of what I’m hoping Mingo will do, so it’s possible that Shenault cannibalizes some of Mingo’s opportunities early on. But really, he’s in Year 4 now and failed to make any impact at all on this team last season so I do believe Mingo was drafted to replace Shenault, not compete with him.

Raimundo Ortiz