2023 Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Bijan Robinson, RB (ADP: 8): Robinson landing in Atlanta was a fantasy dream come true. Robinson was the clear cut best RB in the 2023 draft class, and he’s headed to a team that ran the ball more than any other team in the NFL last season (559 attempts). The rushing attempts were divided up between multiple players: Tyler Allgeier led the way with 210 rushes, followed by Cordarrelle Patterson at 144 and QB Marcus Mariota at 85. Allgeier and Patterson are still there, more on that later, but that division of labor is about to be detonated. Atlanta spent first round capital on a guy who does it all, and will be counted on for all-purpose production on Day 1.
At Texas, Robinson logged 258 carries as a junior, and averaged 16.5 yards per reception. He put up a preposterous 1,894 yards from scrimmage and scored 20 touchdowns, giving him 35 total touchdowns in his final two seasons. It is rare to call a rookie one of the safest picks in fantasy, but barring injury it is very difficult to see how Robinson isn’t a high-end RB1 right away .
Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP: 58): Pitts was absolutely brutal in 2022. He completely killed fantasy managers by turning in a 28-catch, 356-yard, two-touchdown season across 10 games. Pitts is maybe the most physically gifted prospect we’ve seen at the position, but for all the reasons we are bursting with excitement about Robinson’s potential usage, we saw the opposite for Pitts. Despite all his tools, the Falcons just didn’t want to throw him the ball. In 10 games Pitts saw five or fewer targets in half of them. He only managed 80+ yards twice, and was below 45 yards in every other game. Want to get darker? Pitts put up 20 or fewer yards in almost half of his games in 2022.
Was any of this on Pitts? Well he suffered through terrible QB play and was on a team that threw the second-fewest passes in the NFL. He graded out as PFF’s No. 11 TE and was inside the Top 10 based solely on his receiving grade (76.6). He’s not the issue, however, the problems that contributed to his disappointing season might’ve actually gotten worse. The QB play might be better, but not significantly. The offense was already run-heavy, and they’ve added the best RB prospect in the draft to the team, and the coaching staff is the same. He’s the TE5 off the board, and really his talent alone might be enough to break through despite these obstacles. Gambling on him at this ADP isn’t crazy, but it’s not a move I’d make when Darren Waller is being drafted almost a full round later.
**Drake London, WR (ADP: 62): London was also an issue for Pitts, as London was siphoning opportunities that could’ve gone to Pitts. London is a massive receiver, and threatens defenses in much the same way Pitts does. He was also highly effective, posting 72% success rates vs. man and press, and an 81/6% success rate vs. zone per Reception Perception. He just missed the Top 10 cut on PFF and was 23rd in the league in Effective Yards (939), a healthy amount more than the 866 he actually posted. His final numbers – 72 receptions, 866 yards, four touchdowns – don’t impress compared to the top players in his draft class, but he has the deck stacked against him in ways they don’t. The same issues plaguing Pitts exist for London, but London appears more polished than Pitts and equipped to produce anyway. Maybe it takes London a little longer to hit his ceiling, and Pitts has the positional scarcity edge, but I’d rather have London two picks later than his teammate. Ridder has to be a better passer than Mariota, and even a slight improvement could mean additional touchdowns.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Tyler Allgeier, RB (ADP: 127): What do we do with Allgeier, a late-round breakout RB who put up over 1,000 yards on the ground and carried the ball as many times as Rhamondre Stevenson? This is a player who graded as PFF’s No. 5 running back and posted a respectable 61.6 receiving grade. He was good! Well, what we do with him is draft him around this ADP as a handcuff with a smidge of standalone value. Atlanta runs the ball so much that it can’t all be Bijan, but it’s going to be mostly Bijan, and all Bijan around the goal line. Allgeier was a player I highlighted last season with a chance to really matter and he did, but Robinson’s arrival sadly sinks his standalone value.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB (ADP: 164): Patterson’s presence also hurts Allgeier’s value, because Patterson led the way in short yardage/goal line scenarios in 2022, and probably would still get that call this year if Robinson’s off the field. Patterson hasn’t been a volume play in either of his two seasons with the Falcons, but now he’s borderline undraftable, because when the offense is in the red zone Patterson was the big gun. Now, that’s over. There is the possibility that they use him more as a WR, which is how he broke into the NFL, but we’ve established the very limited targets available, and noted that London and Pitts are superior pass catchers. This ADP is risk free, but I don’t envision a particularly useful fantasy season from Patterson.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Desmond Ridder, QB (ADP: 230): Ridder can’t be worse than Marcus Mariota, right? Well, he started four games, averaged just 177 yards per game and managed only two passing touchdowns. His passing grade was actually lower than Mariota’s per PFF, and he can’t run as well. Granted, 2022 was his rookie season so there’s room for growth, but anyone projecting that the removal of Mariota, and the installation of Ridder as the Week 1 starter is a massive improvement is just wishing. Maybe it’ll happen, but there’s nothing Ridder has shown yet to make anyone confident. He's not a fantasy option outside of two-QB formats.