2023 Team Previews: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 66): Godwin beat his timetable to recover from a torn ACL and was on the field in Week 1 last year, but rushing didn’t do him, or his fantasy managers any favors. Godwin wasn’t himself right away, and then got hurt compensating for the quick recovery. He finished the season with fine enough numbers – 104 receptions, 1,023 yards, three touchdowns – but he helped put managers in a hole in the first three weeks, and never really had any monster week-winning performances. Tampa Bay’s offense was brutal last season, with an offensive line that was mangled by injury, an old Tom Brady who was feeling pressure and letting it affect his deep throw accuracy, and an ineffective running game. None of that is going to be significantly better this year, except for maybe the deep connections with Baker Mayfield playing QB. Godwin is going to continue being the most heavily-targets Buccaneer; he drew double digit targets eight times last season, and only drew fewer than five in one game when he was active. Godwin is as safe a pick as they come, and his improved health should be a positive. He’s also likely due some positive touchdown regression. But with Mayfield at QB, and the running game still a major question mark, the offense might be working against Godwin hitting his ceiling. I like this ADP, and he can surely beat it, but I wouldn’t go much higher than this.

Rachaad White, RB (ADP: 70): White is getting a nice ADP bump with Leonard Fournette gone, but I am not sure that he is a worthwhile pick where he’s going. The depth chart appears clear for now, so opportunity figures to be in his favor, but the production last season was just bad. White averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and only 28.3 yards per game on the ground. He caught 50 passes, but only averaged 5.8 yards per reception. He posted a -10.2% RB DVOA and earned lower rushing and receiving grades than Fournette, a player most fantasy managers were happy to see jettisoned. I am not swayed by the depth chart argument here, because unlike Fournette, White does not have a track record of production with volume. Sure, the competition doesn’t seem like much today, but if White isn’t blowing anyone away the Bucs could have a surprise performer during the preseason, or they could sign Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook or bring back Fournette later in the summer. White may end up justifying this ADP, but his talent is unexciting, and this figures to be a middling offense.

**Mike Evans, WR (ADP: 78): Evans’ year-end numbers look fine from 2022, but if you had him, you know it was a torture chamber every week. Evans is turning 30, so maybe he’s losing a little steam, but I’m placing the blame for last season on the crumbling infrastructure that was inevitable after Tampa Bay sold out so hard for their title run. Much like the dropping ADP for D.K. Metcalf last season when Russell Wilson was traded, superb talent can win out. When it comes to Evans, you bank on the track record. This is a receiver who has never fallen below 1,000 receiving yards in his career, a streak that now spans nine seasons. He has put up double digit touchdowns four times, and only gone below eight touchdowns three times. He put up the 12th-most Effective Yards (1,209) last season, more than Ja’Marr Chase, which is a reminder that he was nowhere near as diminished as his QB was. Baker Mayfield is definitely not an improvement on Brady, but he is a better and more willing deep passer at this point in time, which should mean Evans connects on the deep shots more than he did last season.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 242): Mayfield exploding onto the scene as a rookie seems like a lifetime ago, and now he’s looked at as a joke. Mayfield is likely never going to justify the No. 1 overall pick spent on him, but it’s not impossible for him to return to form as a legitimate starting NFL QB. Mayfield was disastrous with the Panthers, but so was every QB that they deployed under Matt Rhule. Once he joined the Rams, who were also depleted by the way, his completion rate jumped six points and he turned the ball over less. He’s now joining a team with two premier WRs as well. Mayfield is pretty much the last starting QB that gets drafted, and while he might get benched during the season, he also has shown more upside than other players going ahead of him. I believe fantasy managers could do worse at QB2 in multiple-QB formats.

Chase Edmonds, RB (ADP: 271): Edmonds has now been around for five seasons, and played for three teams without popping. There’s obviously opportunity for him to establish himself here, but he’s only carried the ball 100+ times once in his career, and his strong suit, catching the ball, is a skill duplicated by White. It’s worth monitoring this backfield situation in preseason, but it’s extremely unlikely that Edmonds amounts to anything more than a desperation full-PPR FLEX play at best.

Cade Otton, TE (ADP: 280): Otton caught 42 passes last season, a solid number for a rookie TE, but some of the numbers under the hood make me very skeptical that he’s a fantasy option in 2023. He averaged just 9.3 yards per reception, which is just not good for a player who doesn’t figure to get a ton of targets. Otton is at best the third option on what is probably a low-scoring offense with two dominant receivers in the mix. He earned a very mediocre 56.6 receiving grade from PFF, and his strong suit was pass blocking…a.k.a. not running routes. It made some sense to give him a try when Brady was QB, but now with Mayfield running the show, I’m out.

**Sean Tucker, RB (ADP: 301): Placing faith in undrafted RBs is usually unwise, as even RBs that were first round picks don’t seem to have much value anymore. But Sean Tucker is very reminiscent of Tyler Allgeier last season, who was drafted, but very late. Allgeier joined a Falcons squad with a real shaky depth chart, and his talent ruled the day, as he ended up pacing the team in carries. Tucker absolutely has a similar path, with only White, whose inefficiency was discussed, Edmonds, whose history is littered with middling performance, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn ahead of him.

Tucker went undrafted because of a potential heart condition, but he’s since been cleared to practice. Had he not had medical red flags, he would’ve been drafted as he starred at Syracuse. Tucker put up 1,751 and 1,314 yards from scrimmage in his final two collegiate campaigns, and scored 14 and 13 touchdowns, respectively. He also caught 36 passes as a junior, and averaged 5.4 yards per carry for the Orange. Tucker’s a baller, and he’s pretty much free while White is one of the first 30 RBs drafted.