2023 Team Previews: New England Patriots

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview 2023

**EDITED 8/16/23**

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (ADP: 25): Stevenson is the clear headliner of a sorry stable of fantasy options on the Patriots. Stevenson was in a time share last season witH Damien Harris, but eventually took hold of the better half of it and proved to be what fantasy managers crave most --  a dual threat RB with good volume. Stevenson took full advantage of all his opportunities, and thrived when Harris was out with three-down duties. He finished 2022 with 1,461 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Even with Harris in the mix, the Patriots ran the ball so much that Stevenson had plenty of opportunity to do damage; Stevenson saw double-digit carries in 11 games, and toted it 15+ times in six games. That usage is likely to increase this season unless the Patriots decide to bring Dalvin Cook in, which would probably hurt Stevenson’s ceiling a bit, but still allow for him to do what he did last year while sharing with Harris.

Stevenson is a big back, built to last, and he’s just too damn talented to not feed consistently. He ranked as PFF’s No. 11 RB last year with an 84.3 rushing grade and he caught 69 passes, fourth most in the NFL at the RB position. His game is as complete as you’ll find, and this ADP is slightly depressed because of how depressing the Patriots’ offensive outlook is. Don’t buy it when it comes to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP: 108): Smith-Schuster is the Patriots’ WR1 in the sense that he’ll likely lead the team in targets, but he hasn’t been an exciting option in years, and that includes 2022 when he was Patrick Mahomes’ de facto No. 1 WR. Now, in Kansas City everyone knew the true top target was Travis Kelce, and in New England that’s far less clear. Smith-Schuster could very well lead this team in targets, but the value of those targets is underwhelming. Mac Jones is a severe downgrade from Mahomes, and we’ve seen throughout his career that Smith-Schuster is pigeonholed as a zone beating slot receiver. Per Reception Perception, Smith-Schuster’s effectiveness vs. man (54.7%) vs. zone (82.5%) is almost comically stark. Juju was useful for the Chiefs, who had Kelce as their top dog, but in New England, he’s very  miscast as an alpha. They’ve got other receivers to play in the spots where Smith-Schuster struggles, but they aren’t able to make opposing defenses worry about them. In a run-heavy offense, without surrounding weaponry, even increased target share isn’t enough to get me excited. This ADP is fine, but that’s the most I can say about it.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Ezekiel Elliott, RB (ADP: 142): Elliott’s landing spot has been much anticipated, and now that he’s in New England, it does change the calculus for Rhamondre Stevenson a bit. His days as an effective workhorse capable of RB1 production are probably gone. He was rightfully displaced from the lead role in Dallas by Tony Pollard despite his bloated contract, and he’s entering an offense with Stevenson as the lead dog, whom he ranked 30 spots behind per PFF. For some teams, Elliott would’ve arrived and really upset the apple cart but in New England, he’s complementary. He does, however, pose a threat to Stevenson’s touchdown total.

Despite his declining explosiveness, Elliott continues to pack a punch in short yardage, registering double-digit touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, and three of the last four. Of his 22 rushing touchdowns in the last two years, 17 have come from inside five yards, and 11 from the goal line. For all Stevenson’s talent, he did struggle to punch it in from in close, which was a role that often fell to Harris. With Zeke in the mix, that surely means he’s going to get a bulk of that work and perhaps lower Stevenson’s ceiling a bit. Overall though, Stevenson will continue to be a valuable RB1 for fantasy rosters, and Zeke will be a very viable FLEX.

Mike Gesicki, TE (ADP: 175): Gesicki might be the most interesting player in this offense, because his ceiling is the most unknown. In Miami, we saw Gesicki have a six-touchdown season in 2020, and a 73-catch season in 2021, but he never quite rose to the level of consistent contributor even though he clearly had the physical tools to be that. For years, New England has prioritized the position. Rob Gronkowski was arguably the greatest TE ever, but we also saw them roll with two-TE packages pairing Gronk with Aaron Hernandez, and then they tried it again to much worse results with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Gesicki could definitely end up as a TE1, so this ADP absolutely represents value. But the far more likely scenario is that he’s just okay, with Henry vulturing TDs and the low passing volume making him too TD dependent. Nevertheless, the upside is far greater than this ADP so in real deep leagues if you wait too long and miss the steady options, Gesicki might bail you out.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Mac Jones, QB (ADP: 204): Jones was a bit of a disaster last season after a promising rookie campaign, throwing only 14 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions in a dumpster fire offense that was being run by a defensive coordinator (Matt Patricia) and a special teams coach (Joe Judge), both of whom previously flamed out in spectacular fashion as head coaches. Bringing in Bill O’Brien is going to be a big help for Jones; he isn’t the talent that Trevor Lawrence is, but we saw a dramatic difference in Lawrence when he was rescued from Urban Meyer, and placed in Doug Pederson’s capable hands. Does this mean Mac will be fantasy relevant? It doesn’t. Jones can’t run, and his receiving corps might arguably be the worst in the NFL. But he could be a serviceable QB2 in the right formats, and at his age that makes him a bit more appealing to those managers than veterans with similar profiles.

Hunter Henry, TE (ADP: 215): Henry is going three picks later, and unlike Gesicki, the ceiling isn’t there. He’s always been very touchdown dependent, and the addition of Gesicki most likely will cannibalize his opportunities to the point he can’t be fantasy relevant. Gesicki is the better athlete and figures to draw more targets and catch more passes. If one of them were to develop into a consistently targeted player, it would be Gesicki. Henry will be boom or bust, and have useful games, but predicting them is too hard and the bad games are too painful.

**DeVante Parker, WR (ADP: 228): Much is made of Parker’s inability to get separation, but that’s really never been part of his game. It’s one thing to decline in that regard, but when you’ve played your whole career and that’s never been a strength, it’s less worrying when the separation numbers are ugly. His inability to separate really kills his chances of ever being an elite receiver, but his contested catch ability does allow him to be efficient (17.4 yards per catch last year) and be a red zone threat (nine TDs in 2019). Outside of his breakout 2019 in which he amassed 1,202 yards and nine scores, Parker’s never gotten to 800 yards or more than four touchdowns in any other season. In all likelihood, Parker is just a complete desperation FLEX play if your team is getting slaughtered by injuries or byes. But, on a WR chart this barren, it’s conceivable that he finds his way to fringe relevancy. And at this ADP, there’s no risk at all.

Tyquan Thornton, WR (ADP: 265): Thornton flashed at times last season, and he has ridiculous enough speed to be a real weapon. Of course, the offense was such a mess that it’s hard to judge what kind of progress he made as a receiver, and he also dealt with injuries. O’Brien taking the reins should benefit Thornton, but he looks to me like a Mecole Hardman-ish player at this point, which is fun in real life but not useful for fantasy managers.

Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP: N/A): Bourne is here. That’s really all there is to say. He was second on the team in receptions in 2021, but he only caught 55 passes that season. He’s got a bit of a nose for the end zone, scoring five times twice in his six-year career despite almost always getting limited playing time. This receiving corps is wide open and begging for someone to grab the brass ring so I’d be silly to rule out Bourne from being that guy and becoming someone fantasy managers can pay attention to. But there’s no need to draft him.