2023 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Aaron Jones, RB (ADP: 38): Jones regularly finishes seasons as an RB1, but the way he gets there sometimes isn’t pretty, and because of that he’s undervalued. As the RB16 off the board, this seems like more of the same. The Green Bay offense obviously has taken a hit with Aaron Rodgers going to the Jets, and even though Rodgers had one of his worst seasons, Jordan Love is not an upgrade. On top of that, Davante Adams left as well, leaving the passing game devoid of a true alpha receiver for most of the year. And through all that, Jones ended 2022 with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage, seven touchdowns, career-highs in rushing yards (1,121), targets (72) and receptions (59). He hasn’t hit the dreaded age 30 yet, and he’s been managed well throughout his career in terms of touches. He remains the focal point of this offense, and the best skill player on the team. With his efficiency and importance to this offense, Jones can easily finish as a Top 10 back again.
Christian Watson, WR (ADP: 64): Watson entered 2022 with tons of question marks, and despite some gaudy numbers in the second half of the season, he continues to present risk. Watson didn’t have much experience heading into his first NFL season, and he didn’t take off until Week 10. But boy did he provide fantasy production from that point on. After going nuts on the Cowboys for 107 yards and three touchdowns, Watson averaged 65.4 yards per game from Weeks 10-17, and scored seven touchdowns in those eight games. I’ve also noted here how even with his abilities still raw, he’s head and shoulders the best receiver on the team, and should have a massive share of even a limited passing pie. But his difficulty getting separation could limit his ceiling even with his athleticism being so great.
In his eight-week rampage to end 2022, Watson cleared five receptions just twice, and posted fewer than 50 yards five times. He also didn’t score in the final four games of that stretch, going over 50 yards only once in that span. Watson crushed it on nine routes, corners and posts, all routes that let him use his athletic superiority more, while he struggled on comebacks, digs and slants, where route running is paramount. He’s simply not refined yet, and Jordan Love might not be confident enough to target him when he’s not seeing the space to throw. Watson certainly has the tools to justify being in the Top 25 receivers taken, but he needs to develop more to be trustworthy. Otherwise, fantasy managers have to bank on a ton of TDs, which is often a recipe for disappointment. The ADP isn’t bad, but it’s no slam dunk either.
AJ Dillon, RB (ADP: 84): Dillon and Jones are like the D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett of RBs. Both are fantastic in differing ways, but can be very valuable for fantasy managers. Dillon is built like a goal line hammer, and he’s being drafted that way, but few players have as much opportunity to surpass their ADP as Dillon.
It was rocky at points for him, and those who spent precious draft capital on him felt pain for sure. From Weeks 2-11 Dillon didn’t score a single touchdown and averaged just 42.2 yards per game while contributing minimally as a receiver out of the backfield (which he can do!). It was ugly. This period also coincided with the Packers’ offense sputtering. Then, it was almost like a light bulb went off, and he started getting used more. Unsurprisingly, he put up numbers! From Weeks 12-17, Dillon averaged 11.5 carries per game, 50.5 yards and he scored six touchdowns. This was more representative of what he is capable of, and PFF agrees ranking him inside the Top 10 of all RBs (Jones was sixth). Dillon posted the 11th-best RB DVOA (9.2%) and the eighth-best Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (147). Dillon’s a monster, and with Rodgers out of the picture, this offense is going to fully commit to being run-first. That’s going to mean a lot of early down touches for Dillon, both to preserve Jones and limit his exposure to damage on those downs, but also because he’s damn good. He also scored five touchdowns from inside the 10, and four of his seven scores came from two yards or closer. Touchdowns are fickle, but you can count on Dillon getting a lot of work whenever Green Bay is close.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Romeo Doubs, WR (ADP: 140): Doubs had a ton of hype last preseason, only to deliver 42 receptions, 425 yards and three touchdowns when the receiving corps was anyone’s for the taking. Now he’s downgraded at QB, and the Packers invested high draft capital in another rookie receiver. Doubs wasn’t able to consistently punish zone defenses last season, and he was alarmingly awful vs. man, barely cracking a 50% success rate and ranking in the 5th percentile. Not good. He’s just a guy, and even at this ADP he’s living off that preseason hype. At this point in drafts it’s hard to be a bust, but I do not see a world where Doubs is regularly cracking fantasy starting lineups.
Jordan Love, QB (ADP: 151): Love only played in four games last season and started none, so we don’t have much to go on. He did complete 14 of 21 passes though, and avoid throwing any interceptions after throwing three as a rookie vs. two touchdowns. Love has talent, but whether he’s ready to helm an NFL offense is a total unknown. He’s not a runner though, so he’s absolutely not an option on Draft Day as a QB1 for any team, and really is only interesting in two-QB/SuperFlex formats, especially with this unheralded receiving corps.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Jayden Reed, WR (ADP: 217): Reed, a second rounder out of Michigan State, put up much better numbers as a junior than he did as a senior. But he did have elite production as a junior, and, more importantly, he comes to this team polished as a route runner and with the ability to get open against zones (79.2% success rate). Watson is the headliner of this receiving corps, but Reed should be able to beat out Doubs and serve as a chain mover for Love while Watson gets targeted on the deep shots. Reed destroys press coverage (77.8% success rate) and won nearly 65% of his contested catch opportunities. Lastly, he has return man speed so he could do damage after the catch in space. This likely isn’t a high enough passing volume offense for Reed to really explode and become a WR2 as a rookie, but he could very well wind up being fantasy relevant. I’d rather draft him at the end of the draft than Doubs at No. 140.