2023 Team Previews: Washington Commanders

Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP: 52): We’re all waiting for McLaurin to finally translate all his prowess into an ironclad WR1 season, but he does need capable QB play to achieve that. It’s extremely unclear if he’ll get that this season, as we don’t even know who his starting QB is and likely won’t until very close to Week 1. With that said, this doesn’t mean McLaurin is going to be some big old bust. He’s the WR21 right now, which means expectations have been adjusted by and large, and at this ADP he makes all the sense. McLaurin rates as one of the NFL’s best receivers by many metrics; he was PFF’s No. 17 receiver, he posted a Top 5 WR DVOA (21.4%), and Top 6 in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). And he was pretty good by regular measures too! McLaurin’s 1,191 yards were a career-high, as were his 1,220 yards from scrimmage. McLaurin is so good that even with shoddy QB play, he’s going to give you 1,000+ yards and five touchdowns. That’s a very high floor, and we haven’t even seen the ceiling because he's never had a good QB throwing to him. But if Sam Howell breaks out, or Jacoby Brissett duplicates some of what he did in Cleveland last year, McLaurin could definitely beat this ADP.

**Brian Robinson, RB (ADP: 88): Robinson’s being underdrafted because this offense doesn’t excite anyone, and his big frame makes fantasy managers mistake him for a goal line specialist. Sure, Robinson doesn’t have big play, breakaway speed and yes, he was uninvolved in the passing game. These are all legitimate reasons to think his ceiling is capped, but Robinson posted an 81.0 rushing grade on PFF and managed almost 800 rushing yards in just 12 games after getting shot in the preseason. Robinson returned after missing only four weeks, and immediately saw nine carries. After that game, he averaged 17.8 rushing attempts per game and managed just two rushing TDs which screams for positive regression. We all love RBs who can catch the ball, and Robinson won’t, but the backs who are actually great rushers are being undervalued in drafts. Robinson has the potential to lead the league in touches with his usage, and 10+ touchdowns is totally in play. This ADP prices him at his floor, and he’s one of the best bargains in fantasy if it holds by the time you draft.

Antonio Gibson, RB (ADP: 89): Gibson is likely a big reason for the lack of excitement for Brian Robinson. Gibson is absolutely the lightning to Robinson’s thunder in this backfield, and Gibson’s style is much more attractive to fantasy managers. Gibson was one of PFF’s best-rated receiving RBs (80.5), he pass blocked well, and was also a well-graded (70.9) rusher. I wrote here why Gibson has the potential to be an elite fantasy back, but the key takeaway was that he needs to see much increased usage, and that’s no guarantee with Ron Rivera still running the show. Rivera’s opinion of Gibson has swung wildly, and that’s no fun for fantasy managers. That’s why Gibson may have a higher ceiling than Robinson, but he has a dramatically lower floor. The ADP for both of them could be huge values, but Robinson’s production is more of a lock than Gibson, and therefore he’s the better pick.

**Jahan Dotson, WR (ADP: 96): It could be a big year for the Commanders offensively, as I also wrote here about Dotson’s potential to break out. Dotson is deceptive, because physically he looks like a slot receiver, but his game proves he’s way more. Dotson beat press coverage at a 78/9% clip, good for the 87th percentile in the league, and posted a 60.3% success rate on nine routes, which made up 23% of his total routes run. He won 81.8% of his contested catch situations, which made up 22% of his targets thanks to the terrible QBs who threw him the ball in 2022. These numbers help explain how he averaged nearly 15 yards per catch, and scored seven touchdowns in only 12 games. He and McLaurin are both versatile, so we shouldn’t expect them to cannibalize one another, and if the Commanders make it a point to get Curtis Samuel out there in the slot it won’t harm Dotson’s effectiveness at all. Touchdowns are never a stat that should be counted on, but in Dotson’s case his underlying skills make him a safer bet to repeat a high rookie TD total than others in the past. Dotson was a first round pick when many thought he was overdrafted, and then performed admirably. He’s an unquestioned major part of this offense moving forward, and a very nice value at this ADP.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Sam Howell, QB (ADP: 212): Could Sam Howell be good? Sure. We only have one NFL game to draw from, in which he threw for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception. In college, he lit the world on fire as a freshman at UNC, throwing for 38 touchdowns vs. seven picks and 3,641 yards only for his sophomore and junior seasons to be progressively less prolific. He was a big runner in college, picking up 828 yards and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns as a junior, but he was more of a scrambler than a designed runner, and NFL defenses are better suited to contain that than those in the ACC. That’s going to be part of his game, but not one fantasy managers should bet on. Howell is not an option for fantasy managers in anything but two-QB formats. Even in SuperFlex leagues, there are probably skill players better suited for weekly usage. But the jury is out on Howell’s ability to support multiple pass-catchers. It would be really nice if he could, because McLaurin and Dotson are fun as hell.

Curtis Samuel, WR (ADP: 243): Samuel once had the look of a Deebo Samuel-esque player, but after injuries basically robbed him of his 2021 season, he was decidedly meh in 2022. QB play is probably to blame, but he’s a non-traditional receiver who is now a clear and distant third option in the passing game, as well as a distant third in the running game. With either Howell or Brissett under center, this offense just isn’t supporting a lot of fantasy options, and Samuel isn’t good enough to eat into what McLaurin and Dotson will demand. He’ll definitely have some big plays that look great, but week-to-week he can’t be trusted. Out at any ADP.

Logan Thomas, TE (ADP: 276): Thomas’ fantasy relevant 202 seems like a fluke. Outside of that season, Thomas has never eclipsed 40 receptions or three touchdowns, and even at his best was a high-floor, low-ceiling option who required volume. The days of Thomas being the main show in town are long gone, and so is his fantasy relevance.

Jacoby Brissett, QB (ADP: N/A): Brissett should probably be the starter for this team if winning right now is the goal. He actually graded as PFF’s No. 6 QB last season, and posted a higher passing grade (82.6) than Geno Smith did. Smith’s season is instructive here, as he was a longtime backup with underrated skills who matured and got an opportunity. That happened with Brissett too, but he was discarded as soon as Deshaun Watson came back, and the Browns offense notably suffered. Brissett is now joining a team with legitimate weapons in the receiving and rushing game, and could find relevancy through TD efficiency. None of this is likely, but if he earns the job out of camp, he may be worth a stash in two-QB/SuperFlex formats. I like him better than Howell.