2023 Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Kenneth Walker, RB (ADP: 33): Walker burst onto the scene last season once Rashaad Penny got hurt, immediately establishing himself as one of the best pure rushers in the league. He finished 2022 with 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, while averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 70 yards per game. He ended the year as PFF’s No. 20 overall running back, but he actually earned their 11th-best rushing grade, and his overall score was dragged down by major deficiencies as a blocker. While fantasy managers shouldn’t care much about blocking skills for RBs, Walker being a poor pass blocker could hurt his ultimate ceiling because it may lead to him being off the field on third/passing downs. Still, that’s a nitpick. We don’t worry about Nick Chubb’s or Derrick Henry’s issues blocking or even in the receiving game because they are that dominant on the ground. Walker is in that class of running back, and this ADP leaves room for value to be gained. Let the Zach Charbonnet hype build, and you can snag an RB1 in Round 3. P
**D.K. Metcalf, WR (ADP: 35): Metcalf is among the safest picks in fantasy, but don’t take that to mean he has a lower ceiling. “Safe” isn’t always a compliment, but in this case it just means outside of a bad injury, it’s hard to envision Metcalf not being a very valuable fantasy asset. Metcalf is a hulking receiver who is almost exclusively used on the outside, but that lack of versatility matters very little; he’s efficient (13.8 yards per catch for his career), dominant in the end zone (28 touchdowns in the last three seasons) and heavily targeted (129+ targets in three straight seasons with two different QBs). Metcalf beat man coverage about 75% of the time last season, putting him in the 80th percentile, and he cleared 75% against press coverage, and he was pressed on 24.5% of his routes. He’s currently going as the WR15, and that is probably where he’ll land with the plethora of talent surrounding him these days, but if his six touchdowns last year jump back to the 12 he scored in 2021, then you’ve unlocked a clear-cut WR1.
**Tyler Lockett, WR (ADP: 68): Lockett and Metcalf have been one of the best WR duos for a long time, and while they’re recognized, they’ve been a bit underrated because the Seahawks have historically been a run-heavy offense. These two finished back-to-back per PFF’s rankings, with Lockett actually one spot ahead of Metcalf. By some metrics, Football Outsiders vastly preferred Lockett’s work. Lockett posted a 15.6% WR DVOA mark, good for 13th in the league vs. Metcalf’s -7.9% mark (63rd). Lockett was also Top 15 in Effective Yards, with his 1,121 outpacing his actual 1,033 yards. While Metcalf looks like a sentinel from X-Men and garners more attention, Lockett is probably Seattle’s most important offensive skill player because of how he seamlessly lines up anywhere on any given play and completely dominates. In 2022 Lockett actually surpassed Metcalf’s success rates vs. man and press, but also posted an 83.4% success rate vs. zone, placing him in the 84th percentile of receivers. And despite his slot receiver size, Lockett’s elite skills allow him to run intermediate and deep routes creating opportunities to be efficient, and also preventing him from losing his status in the hierarchy this year with rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering the fold. Based on this ADP, it looks like many are downgrading Lockett because they feel JSN is going to eat into his target share. JSN will certainly demand targets, but Lockett can still thrive on efficiency, and therefore he’s a big value here.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (ADP: 92): Smith-Njigba joining this offense takes a team with high end receiving options and turns it into an embarrassment of riches. The last time we saw a full season from JSN, he was arguably outplaying Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave at Ohio State, and making it so that Jameson Williams had to leave to get on the field. Like Lockett, JSN is extremely versatile. He posted a 75% success rate vs. man coverage, but he was largely used out of the slot by the Buckeyes, and he beat zone at an 81.4% rate. He’ll undoubtedly get to show those skills at certain points this season, but with Metcalf and Lockett being so entrenched, I’d expect him to spend the majority of his time on the field shredding nickel corners with his already-elite route running. He’s definitely talented enough to beat this ADP by a good margin, but I expect him to be more of a PPR accumulator in Year 1, and it would be shocking for him to surpass Metcalf and Lockett right away and become an alpha for this offense. He will be an asset for sure, but a true elite breakout will probably have to wait until Seattle’s depth chart clears up a little.
Zach Charbonnet, RB (ADP: 107): Charbonnet was a beast at UCLA, posting 1,334 and 1,680 yards from scrimmage, respectively, in his two years with the Bruins and scoring 27 touchdowns across those two seasons. He was used as a receiver out of the backfield too, giving some fuel to the notion that Charbonnet is going to replace Walker in passing situations right out of the gate. Call me skeptical, as Pete Carroll has rarely deviated from having one workhorse back in his long and successful run as the Seahawks coach. Charbonnet could be a league-winner if Walker sustains a big injury, and he’s probably worth drafting as a handcuff, but this ADP indicates standalone value that I’m unconvinced he has right now. If Charbonnet is not getting playing time in the first few weeks, are you hanging on to him if you don’t already roster Walker? Probably not, so this is not a value here.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Geno Smith, QB (ADP: 110): Career-best seasons don’t typically occur in Year 9, but that’s exactly what Geno Smith turned in for 2022, his first succeeding Russell Wilson. He outperformed Wilson in every way, throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and finishing as a Top 10 QB. OF course, that finish was helped by certain bigger names not playing in as many games, but no one can dispute that Smith was a useful player. There’s no reason to think he won’t be again in 2023, since his world-beating WR duo of Metcalf and Lockett added the best WR prospect in the 2023 draft. Smith posted a 5.3% TD rate in 2021 in relief of Wilson, and matched it last year (5.2%) across 17 games. Smith’s efficiency is real, and his war chest expanded.
It’s unlikely that Smith can hit the yardage of guys like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert that can take him into real elite pocket passer territory, but he’s close enough that the vast ADP gap becomes interesting. Smith threw two or more TD passes in 12 of 17 games, and surpassed 250 yards eight times. Smith also averaged four rushing attempts and 21.5 yards per game on the ground. If he sees a rushing TD spike – he ran for six as a rookie in 2013 – Smith suddenly becomes a massive value.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Noah Fant, TE (ADP: 206): Fant is an athletically gifted player who year after year leaves us wanting more. For all his gifts, he’s entering Year 5 and he’s never seen more than 93 targets in a season, hit 675 yards or eclipsed five TDs. He’s been a streaming TE, and that’s what he’ll be here with one of the best RBs in the NFL in the backfield, and the best WR trio in the sport soaking up most of the available targets. Fant will probably have some spike weeks, but they’ll be impossible to predict. If you’re throwing darts for TE, try a player with a clearer path to target share.