2023 Team Previews: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Najee Harris, RB (ADP: 29): Harris has been one of the most productive RBs in fantasy over the past two years, but his ADP isn’t where it belongs because he does it the ugly way. A first round pick, Harris isn’t electric the way a Breece Hall was last year. Harris hasn’t even averaged four yards per carry yet in a season. What he has done, however, is rack up more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games, and over 1,600 as a rookie. He’s scored 10 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. And he’s still on the Steelers, one of the few remaining teams that values a workhorse RB and doesn’t force them off the field for the sake of variety. At RB11 it’s not like fantasy managers are being disrespectful to Harris, but he should be a value at No. 29, and he's the type of player who can be your RB1 if you decide to go WR or Travis Kelce early.

**Diontae Johnson, WR (ADP: 65): Johnson, like Najee, is a bit undervalued right now because of how unexciting the Steelers were in 2022. Johnson was very disappointing last year, having lost 20 yards per game from the previous season, but that had more to do with the Pittsburgh offense and QB play than anything on his end. He remained in the 84th percentile or better vs. man, zone and press and posted a 72.7% success rate vs. double coverage. He continues to be basically unguardable, which is why he routinely draws elite target share every season. He suffers from drops, which can definitely be frustrating, but the issue is overblown because he’s so damn good that there’s no threat of the team taking him off the field. He’s not a field stretcher, so the big plays aren’t going to be there much, but he’s going to fill up the receptions category. It’s up to the Steelers coaching staff to draw up the plays to allow him to maximize the yardage.

George Pickens, WR (ADP: 77): Pickens is a far more exciting player to watch for most than Johnson, but he has a far better chance of not justifying his ADP than Johnson does. Pickens is a ridiculous downfield threat, and is beastly in contested catch scenarios, but 32.4% of his routes were straight nines. That’s not a recipe for consistency, even if he posted a 58% success rate.

It’s great that Pickens is as dominant as he is in battles for the ball, because he doesn’t separate. Pickens was in the fifth!!!! percentile vs. zone defenses last season, and only had a 64.9% success rate against man coverage. Pickens has a very obvious skill set, and it allowed him to amass 801 yards on just 52 receptions. But he posted four or fewer receptions in 13 of his 17 games, and has a long way to go to make himself a consistent go-to option. When you get past the sizzle, there’s not nearly enough steak here to justify this ADP.

**Pat Freiermuth, TE (ADP: 99): Freiermuth posted a surprising rookie campaign, and while his touchdowns fell from seven to two, which hurts, he was a much improved player. Freiermuth put up 732 yards on 63 catches, much greater efficiency than the previous year when he put up just 497 on 60 receptions. His average depth of target went up by three yards, as he has shown more capacity for big plays. The touchdown drop sucks of course, but touchdowns are fantasy’s most fickle stat. Expect positive regression for him as his role increases, since he’s probably the second-best all around pass catcher on the roster.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Kenny Pickett, QB (ADP: 148): Pickett started 12 games for the Steelers, and threw seven touchdown passes against nine picks. That’s not good. His and Mitch Trubisky’s terrible play are the biggest reason Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns. Pickett runs a little bit – 4.2 attempts per game, three rushing touchdowns – but there’s no world where Pickett is an every week starter in Year 2. Improvement in his game will go a long way toward helping these skill players succeed, but if he’s anything more than an occasional streaming QB I’d be stunned.

Jaylen Warren, RB (ADP: 153): Warren’s got some buzz this offseason because he averaged 4.9 yards per carry last year, graded just outside PFF’s Top 25 RBs (73.8, one spot ahead of Harris), a 14.5% RB DVOA and legitimate receiving chops. That’s all well and good, but Harris is the established alpha for this team and is very capable in all the same areas. Warren may become very valuable in the event of a Harris injury, and it makes some sense for Harris drafters to handcuff him, but hopes for standalone value are misplaced.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Allen Robinson, WR (ADP: 218): Robinson’s supposed career revival in Los Angeles with Sean McVay…stalled. Robinson was dreadful last season, putting up 33 receptions, 339 yards and three touchdowns putting up fewer than 25 yards in five of his 10 games. Robinson’s turning 30 this season, and it’s extremely possible he’s cooked. The Steelers are known for being adept at drafting WRs…let’s see if they can spot them in free agency too. I am not optimistic.