2023 Team Previews: Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (ADP: 21): St. Brown is finally getting his due respect after exceeding expectations in back-to-back seasons. He is far from a prototypical alpha WR, and the Lions have some threats this year to his utter dominance of the target share, but there’s very little to worry about when it comes to him justifying his ADP. After popping as a rookie, St. Brown saw even more targets in 2022 with according jumps in receptions (90 to 106), yards (912 to 1,161) and touchdowns (5 to 6). It’s hard to group him with the first round type receivers because he doesn’t beat defenses the way they do. They are more complete than St. Brown in the sense that they’re either bigger, faster or both and can harm a secondary all over the field. St. Brown is not a burner, and he is not used down the field very often. Corners, nines and posts combined make up barely 10% of his routes, and he posted below average success rates on all of them. More often, you’ll find him running slants, flat routes or digs, all of which he wins at nearly 80% rates, and he was targeted on an insane 34.1% of the routes sampled by Reception Perception. He’s essentially the league’s premier target hound, but he’s so dominant in his areas of excellence that even with upgraded weaponry around him, St. Brown’s role is secure. He’s probably being drafted at his ceiling at this ADP, but his ceiling and floor aren’t very far apart. This is an elite receiver who will be a pillar of the fantasy teams he’s drafted to.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (ADP: 37): Gibbs was a player that the Lions were kind of clowned on for drafting as early as they did, but that has much more to do with real life roster construction than how people view him. Nobody’s laughing at the production he’s capable of based on this ADP, placing him at RB14 off the board. The easy comparison is to Alvin Kamara; they’re built similarly, have electric speed and playmaking ability in space, and figure to contribute as efficiency monsters on the ground and through the air even though they don’t lead their team in touches. While I love Gibbs’ talent and potential, this ADP is asking a lot. Kamara drew 100+ targets in his first two seasons and scored 13 and 18 total touchdowns, respectively, in those seasons. Gibbs had better collegiate production than Kamara did, and went a round earlier, but that’s still wildly productive for a rookie. And sure, the possibility exists that Gibbs comes close to that production, but Kamara was much cheaper in drafts his rookie season. Gibbs has to come very close to those lofty stats to justify this ADP, and with St. Brown drawing so many targets that’s not going to be easy. If this continues to be his ADP, or if it rises, I’m afraid I’ll have to miss out on the fun because there’s way too much downside present for him to be taken before more established options.

David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 72): Despite my concern about volume for Gibbs making his ADP too high, I’m not particularly excited about Montgomery either. While some are penciling him into the Jamaal Williams role that netted Williams a career-best 17 total touchdowns, I talked at length here about why that’s faulty logic. While in that article I made lots of references to a time-share with since-departed D’Andre Swift, and referenced Swift’s vastly better advanced stats, that is all likely to be true about a time-share with Gibbs. Montgomery has put up stats year after year based on heavy volume, and that volume is about to decrease. Montgomery has failed to hit 900 rushing yards in three of four seasons despite carrying the ball 200+ times in all four years of his career. He’s only managed double-digit touchdowns once, and it was in a season in which he saw career-high usage in the passing game which he will not match with Gibbs in the mix. Montgomery’s value is volume, and he’s just not going to see as much, and isn’t efficient enough to close the gap. Williams’ touchdown total was fluky, and projecting it onto Montgomery is a fool’s errand. Even assuming he has the goal line role, which I am not assuming, the Lions have some pretty explosive players who can score from further out and that is before even considering the positive regression for QB Jared Goff’s TD passing. This ADP isn’t necessarily a killer, but you can find high-impact players in this range. Montgomery seems safe, but it’s just low-upside.

Jared Goff, QB (ADP: 119): Goff threw 29 touchdowns last season, 4,438 yards and will have much-hyped second-year burner Jameson Williams after his six-game suspension ends. He’s also playing behind one of the NFL’s better offensive lines. No, it’s not enough to really call Goff a sleeper or anything because he doesn’t run the ball at all, but he’s certainly capable of spike weeks making him an attractive streamer/QB2 in leagues where you can start multiple QBs.

Jameson Williams, WR (ADP: 115): Williams saw only nine targets in 2022, catching one for 41 yards and a touchdown. It was the briefest of glimpses into what he brings to this offense, which is a perfect complement to St. Brown’s absolute dominance in short and intermediate yardage. Williams adds electricity to an offense that already had very little issues scoring points; he averaged almost 20 yards per catch in college at Ohio State and Alabama, and once he left the Buckeyes’ unbelievably loaded receiving corps (Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba), he won the Heisman with the Crimson Tide. The last time we saw Williams play a full season, he amassed 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns. Once he joins the offense, he will be a big difference maker. We should expect him to function mostly as a downfield threat, which will likely lead to bust weeks, but his good games can be explosive. And don’t be surprised if he does turn out to be more than just a deep threat, as his Reception Perception breakdown noted that he’s already pretty polished at hurting zone defenses. The price is a little rich factoring in the time he’s guaranteed to miss, but he’s going to be exciting once he’s available.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Sam LaPorta, TE (ADP: 163): LaPorta is interesting, because rookie TEs are often not fantasy contributors. On the other hand, T.J. Hockenson was averaging six targets per game before being traded to the Vikings last year, and LaPorta has a clear path to the starting job. The second-round pick’s numbers at Iowa aren’t incredible, as he had nearly identical junior and senior seasons that averaged to 55.5 receptions, 663.5 yards and two touchdowns. Iowa had a bad offense, so there’s blame to be found there, but you’d like to see bigger numbers if you’re investing in a rookie TE as a season-long option. You can’t look at LaPorta as your lone TE on Draft Day, but this ADP isn’t implying that anyone is. Maybe he pops, but it’s unlikely, and it’s also unlikely that he’s worth your time as a draft pick.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Marvin Jones, WR (ADP: 247): Jones is back to the team where he had his finest seasons, but unfortunately it seems Father Time has extracted his pound of flesh from the 33-year-old Jones. He’s no longer the massive deep threat he was in his prime, and while his last few seasons have been respectable affairs, you’re not clamoring to lock in the production he’s put forth the last two years in Jacksonville. I’d expect some fireworks here and there in the first six games while Jameson Williams is out, but once Williams has arrived, Jones is basically obsolete. The ship’s sailed on his sleeper value.

Denzel Mims, WR (ADP: N/A): Mims’ three years with the Jets is most memorable for what he didn’t do…play. Mims just never made an impact on the Jets, who were begging for someone to step up at receiver before Garrett Wilson won Rookie of the Year last season. Mims has flashed efficient play, and the Lions are hoping that he can complement St. Brown and also offer size on the outside. He probably won’t, but he’s more interesting than Jones, whose value nowadays is filling out DFS lineups at a cheap price with TD upside.