2023 Team Previews: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Travis Etienne, RB (ADP: 34): Etienne started slowly in 2022, and once James Robinson was shipped out, and Etienne was handed the keys, he played like one of the best RBs in the NFL. Etienne finished the season with over 1,100 rushing yards and five touchdowns for the Jaguars and their ascendant offense. Reinforcements have been brought in so Etienne probably will see his volume dip slightly, but he’s ultimately too electric to keep off the field. One thing that was interesting about his breakout, however, is that he wasn’t a huge factor out of the backfield despite a reputation for being an elite pass-catching back. We’ll see how that plays out in 2023, but if he does not become a high-end receiver out of the backfield, his ceiling likely caps as a late first-round pick rather than someone who can break into the Top 5. Still, at this ADP he should return value.
Calvin Ridley, WR (ADP: 41): Ridley is going to be fascinating, because he hasn’t played since Week 7 of 2021, and left due to mental health issues followed by a year-long ban for gambling. Of course, Ridley has stayed in shape and all that, but he’s close to two years removed from NFL game action, and still being drafted as the 19th WR off the board. That’s a lot of faith to place in a man this inactive, but if you look at his career, it’s not insane.
Ridley has averaged 13.5 yards per reception in his career, 14.1 if you remove his tumultuous and abbreviated 2021. He scored seven or more touchdowns in his first three seasons, and exploded for 1,374 yards in 2020. He is a complete receiver, beating man coverage at a 76.4% clip and zone at an 80.5% rate the last time we saw him and doing so almost exclusively on the outside, which is where he will be with the Jags. His contested catch ability didn’t show well, but that’s less relevant when you’re always getting wide open. Now, can he do all this so far removed from playing and on a team where there are a lot of quality options? Probably. He’s only 28 years old, he’s filling a big need for a star QB on the rise and the flip side of missing all that time is that his body hasn’t been taking wear and tear. I wouldn’t say this ADP is drafting Ridley at his ceiling, but it’s close. This is probably not offering a lot of opportunity for “value,” but there’s no reason to believe he cannot justify being taken here.
Christian Kirk, WR (ADP: 54): Kirk got a bag last offseason, and while many clowned the Jags for overpaying a slot receiver to be their WR1, the joke was on them. Kirk is an elite slot receiver, and that was just fine for him to be one of the most productive receivers in fantasy. Kirk ended the season with 84 receptions, 14th among all WRs, over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Kirk dominated target share to a degree he will not this season with Calvin Ridley on the outside, so he should be dinged slightly in that regard, but he and Ridley are complementary players and Kirk’s role will be the same in 2023 with less defensive attention being paid to him. His eight touchdowns was a bit high, and seems due for some regression. Kirk is likely not going to reproduce the numbers he posted as the de facto WR1 for this team, so the ADP is high. Hopefully it drops some as we approach Draft Day and he can become a value; until then, he’s a nice player, but here, he’s overdrafted.
Trevor Lawrence, QB (ADP: 57): Lawrence’s improvement in Year 2 was dramatic, proving that Urban Meyer really was that disastrous of a head coaching hire. Doug Pederson got him on track, and he topped the 4,000-yard mark, threw 25 touchdowns and kept the interceptions in the single digits. Having Kirk as a frequent outlet helped, and now Lawrence potentially has a legitimate WR1 on the outside. The sky is the limit for the former No. 1 overall pick, who graded as PFF’s No. 11 QB, and we’ve seen what happens to QBs who are promising and then have an elite WR added to the mix. Ridley is far riskier than A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs were due to his time away from football, but the upside is certainly present. Lawrence is also a factor as a rusher. It’s not a focal point of his game like Josh Allen, but Lawrence did take off almost four times per game in 2022, and he scored five touchdowns. That’s not special these days, but it does give him an edge over more stationary passers like Aaron Rodgers or Tua Tagovailoa, and helps justify the ADP leap from them a bit. This ADP seems a wee bit high in comparison to available players at other positions (Chris Godwin, George Kittle, Miles Sanders are the next three players) but his upside is Joe Burrow’s production. So there’s that.
Evan Engram, TE (ADP: 94): Engram had his best season since he was a rookie, and that was in 2017. Yes, Engram’s been around longer than many realize, and to me, that means he’s a bit overrated right now. His success was fun and helpful to those who scooped him up and manifested a safe weekly TE, but he finished the year with 73 receptions, 766 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per catch (10.5) were very consistent with the rest of his career, and there was no TD spike. At this point, it’s a safe assumption there never will be, that’s not the kind of player Engram is. He exploded for 162 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14, fantasy playoffs in many leagues, but beyond two games in the fantasy playoffs where he went for more than 100 yards, he was under 70 yards in the remaining 15 games. If you remove Weeks 14 and 16, Engram averaged 3.4 catches and 36.7 yards and scored twice. He was held to fewer than five catches 11 times, and he had one catch in four different games. His ADP isn’t that high so drafting him here is not catastrophic, but there are still very high-upside RBs and WRs at this point in drafts and much cheaper TEs who can deliver similar numbers at a way better cost.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Zay Jones, WR (ADP: 144): Jones had a more relevant season than any fantasy manager could’ve imagined on Draft Day, but the addition of Ridley to this team erases him from consideration for me. His 823 yards and five touchdowns were respectable, but far from remarkable, and those will shrink with Ridley, Kirk and Engram absorbing targets. He wasn’t a big play threat, and he didn’t grade well per PFF. He’s just a guy. There’s no reason to draft a player with such a low ceiling.
Tank Bigsby, RB (ADP: 152): Bigsby has some hype entering his rookie season, with many really thinking he’s going to eat into Etienne’s workload. I don’t see it. Bigsby had good numbers at Auburn, but they don’t stand out. He didn’t even top 1,000 yards at Auburn in his final season, and while he didn’t quite receive a full bell cow complement of carries, the production doesn’t really scare me into being worried about Etienne at all. It’s possible I’m off the mark here, but I am not entirely convinced Bigsby is even a surefire handcuff to Etienne.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
D’Ernest Johnson, RB (ADP: 310): Once upon a time I thought Johnson would be heard from in a big way while he was with the Browns. Last preseason I had hyped up what Johnson was able to do in very limited high volume opportunities in 2021; in three games with 19+ carries, Johnson averaged 122.6 yards on the ground and two touchdowns while grading as a Top 10 RB per PFF (ignoring qualifying snap count). Cleveland did not part ways with disgruntled Kareem Hunt, though, injuries were kept at bay and he only saw four carries. It’s possible he’s just as seldom used here, because Etienne is the unquestioned RB1 and Bigsby was drafted in the third round, not insignificant for a RB. But camp should be fun to pay attention to, because I can easily see him outplaying Bigsby and having some regular opportunity to spell Etienne.