2023 Team Previews: New York Giants

New York Giants Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Saquon Barkley, RB (ADP:8): Barkley finally had a healthy season in 2022 and reminded us all what a freak talent he is, finishing the year with 1,650 yards from scrimmage, 10 touchdowns and strong production both on the ground and as a pass-catcher. In terms of what fantasy managers want from a first round RB in an ideal world, Barkley provides almost every ingredient. His ADP makes total sense, but there is one major concern. His offense is largely devoid of playmakers aside from Barkley, so he will be the focal point of every single defensive game plan this season. He’s more than talented enough to produce regardless, but with that level of defensive attention, there are bound to be games in which he flops. For that reason, I think this ADP is his ceiling, but barring injury the season-long floor is incredibly high.

**Darren Waller, TE (ADP: 67): Waller joining the Giants was one of the most impactful moves for fantasy of the entire offseason, and it was covered here. The last two seasons have been tough for Waller, as he battled injury and a drastic change in his role with the Raiders when target hog Davante Adams entered the mix and monopolized the passing game from him. At his best, when he broke out in 2020, Waller was peppered with targets every week and amassed more than 100 receptions and 1,100 yards. Waller thrived with volume, and he’s about to be the alpha and omega of this passing game because the Giants do not have a WR with an ADP inside the Top 175. However, even though opportunity is king, Waller has to prove he isn’t washed. It’s been two full seasons since we saw him dominate.

Per PFF, Waller was still very good. He earned a 74.5 receiving grade, and finished Top 12 at the position despite his overall mark being lower than his receiving grade due to his poor blocking. I’m sure Brian Daboll wishes Waller could block, but us fantasy managers couldn’t care less and that isn’t going to take him off the field because he’s their best receiving threat. He posted a Top 20 TE DVOA (5.8%) as well, so if you believe he has lost a step, that’s not really backed up by much. That narrative dings Waller too much for being injured, and while that is concerning, his ADP comes at a much lower risk than other premier options, while he offers the same upside.

Daniel Jones, QB (ADP: 103): Jones got a big bag this offseason, and his image has been completely rehabbed after a successful first season under Brian Daboll. Even I have to admit there is potential for a big breakout, which I wrote about here. But I have to be truthful, when the time comes I don’t think I’ll be able to pull the trigger on Danny Dimes as my every week starter in a one-QB format. The key to Jones’ value is his rushing; while he’s not Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, the Giants did unlock him as a weapon on the ground, and he posted career-highs in touchdowns (7) yards (44.3) and attempts per game (7.5). While some teams with mobile QBs are looking for ways to limit their guys’ carries and exposure to punishment, the G-Men have no choice but to go the other way. But therein lies the downside to Jones. Without significant passing upside, what is the ceiling?

Jones’ rushing absolutely is a floor-raiser, but his ground production will not be elite for the position with players like Jackson, Fields, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen around. Whether or not Jones can hit a new level as a passer is a humongous question mark, and I am skeptical. Aside from Waller, the Giants have one of the NFL’s weakest receiving groups, and Jones has never shown himself to be a passer capable of elevating mediocrity. He set a career-high for passing yardage last season of 3,205, which is non-competitive compared to top QB1s. He is limiting turnovers, which helps, but Jones only threw 15 touchdowns last season, in what was considered his best pro campaign. He hasn’t sniffed 20 touchdown passes since his rookie year. We saw QBs with questionable passing chops take leaps with new top targets. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen ascended with A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs. Darren Waller isn’t that, and Jones isn’t working with such extensive physical gifts. QB13 overall is probably a reach.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Jalin Hyatt, WR (ADP: 202): Hyatt is a player I do like, but for him to be this team’s top-drafted WR is dire. He put up 1,200+ yards and 15 touchdowns at Tennessee, and is a freakishly fast playmaker, but it’s a stretch to consider him a guy that will be consistently targeted enough to contribute weekly. Per Reception Perception, Tennessee used him brilliantly in an effort to capitalize on his strengths; they constantly lined him up off the line of scrimmage in stack formations and let him use his speed to brutalize defenses in space and avoid getting jammed. Those formations are less effective at the NFL level, and he flat out is inexperienced at running a more professional route tree. None of this means he will be a bust, but it means that as a rookie there’s a big learning curve that likely prevents him from being a consistent asset for fantasy managers. This ADP is obviously deep, so he can’t really hurt you this late in a draft, but it’s most likely a waste of a pick outside of dynasty or deep keeper leagues.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR (ADP: 205): Robinson showed some PPR promise after being selected in Round 2 last year, earlier than expected. He blew out his knee, ending his season early and not letting us see if he could be a safety blanket/target hound for Jones. As an extremely small receiver, Robinson looks like a slot player and was used a ton out of the slot. Per Reception Perception, he was just okay even being used in a way to maximize his upside. He was off the line on 90.4% of his snaps, and saw press just four percent of the time, and still couldn’t consistently separate. Robinson is too small to do well after contact, he ranked below the 50th percentile vs. zone and only succeeded 40% of the time on nine routes. Robinson could improve of course, but the ceiling is a full-PPR accumulator who is going to struggle to draw end zone targets and doesn’t show potential to evolve into a more versatile role. With a popgun passing offense like this, why invest in that player archetype? Hard pass.

Parris Campbell, WR (ADP: 208): Campbell is a better bet to be fantasy relevant in 2023, even though his steep drop in yards per reception (16.2 to 9.9) is scary and might reflect injuries sapping him of his explosiveness. Campbell was drafted as a Deebo Samuel-esque player who relied on his speed and athleticism to overcome a lack of polish. If that’s been drained in any way, it’s hard to imagine him being an impactful player in this offense. Campbell has always been a theoretical darling, and he’s been injured so much it’s been impossible to let his meager production rule him out. Last season he got through 17 games, and was mostly useless for fantasy, but Indianapolis’ offense was so putrid that maybe he gets yet another pass. We haven’t seen him thrive in four years, so I’m not betting on it clicking now. There are more interesting players on this roster.

**Isaiah Hodgins, WR (ADP: 229): Hodgins turned heads last season becoming the Giants’ best receiver, despite being an in-season addition after the Bills cut him. Hodgins caught 33 passes for 351 yards and four touchdowns in eight games with the Giants, and was pretty useful for fantasy managers late in the season. And yet, the disrespect is real with this ADP. I’m unclear as to why any of the three Giants receivers currently going ahead of him are more desirable. Hodgins showed last year that he’s not much of a big play deep threat, so maybe he doesn’t excite us, but he consistently defeated man coverage which is a big deal playing on the outside. He thrived on intermediate routes, showed he can move into the slot when called upon, and used his size well in contested catch situations. Maybe Robinson will draw more targets this season than Hodgins, but Hodgins will be more efficient, and he’s going to be in the mix to lead the Giants in touchdowns. He is probably the only Giants’ wide receiver I’d have interest in rostering.

Darius Slayton, WR (ADP: 278): If it didn’t happen for Slayton in 2022, then he’s like fetch. He’s never going to happen. This team was absolutely begging for someone to take over as its alpha receiver, and aside from some splash plays, which is nothing new for him, he just couldn’t do it. He has posted drop rates of 10% and 9.9% in back to back seasons, and Hodgins emerged as just a more dependable player, even if he can’t threaten defenses deep in the same way. Slayton can make flashy plays for this team, but it’s over for him as someone to consider for fantasy managers.

Sterling Shepard, WR (ADP: N/A): Shepard is a player whose talent I’ve always believed in, and he’s probably the Giants receiver I’d be most interested in besides Hodgins. If truly healthy, there’s no reason he can’t pace the receiver room in targets, yards and touchdowns. It’s just that he has been so injured over the years, playing in just 22 games across the past three seasons combined. His injuries have been catastrophic as well, making it highly unlikely he is going to be the same level of playmaker when he turns 31 this year. This ADP means he’s basically undrafted, so he’s risk free, but there are healthier players with more upside you can take a stab at. At best, his absolute peak is a mid-level WR2.