2023 Team Previews: Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
**Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP: 4): Ekeler getting franchise tagged sucks for him in terms of him not getting the long-term security he sought, but for fantasy purposes this was fantastic. As fantasy managers, we value opportunity, talent, and stability in that order and Ekeler provides all three. He regularly shined when he would spell Melvin Gordon, and upon receiving the full-time, three-down role he took his production to the next level. Ekeler isn’t a prototypical RB1 in the sense that he doesn’t receive a workhorse type of carry count, but he’s reliably hit 200 rushing attempts in back-to-back seasons. Ekeler is probably the best receiving back in the NFL not named Christian McCaffery, and he led all RBs in receptions last year with 107. In fact, Ekeler had more receptions than all but four pass catchers in 2022 – Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs. And despite his short stature, Ekeler runs with power and has zero issues finding the end zone, having scored 38 total touchdowns in the last two seasons. Not a typo. RB was a down position last season, so the ADP for even the top guys is a bit depressed. While you can’t really go wrong drafting WRs like Jefferson or Hill or Ja’Marr Chase in Round 1, Ekeler offers security that even McCaffery arguably doesn’t due to his injury history. At No. 5 overall, it would’ve been unthinkable in previous years that a consistent RB like Ekeler could be available.
Keenan Allen, WR (ADP: 46): Allen is the rock of this passing game, steadily averaging 6-7 receptions per game, 70-75 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. At age 31, it’s possible that Allen might start slowing down, but so far he hasn’t shown signs of that. In a Chargers offense littered with playmakers who can gain chunks of yardage on a single catch, Allen is the player who is consistently getting open, moving the chains and creating the space possible for those players to work. He is probably one of the most stable players you can possibly draft, but there is a tradeoff in that his floor and his ceiling are basically the same. Outside of injury, he presents basically zero bust risk, but at WR18 I actually think I’d prefer taking a bigger swing. On the other hand, if you took big risks in the first two rounds, Allen absolutely raises a team’s floor.
**Justin Herbert, QB (ADP: 48): Herbert, arguably the most physically talented QB in football, took a step back last season. He dropped from 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in Year 2 to 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns in Year 3. That’s not supposed to happen. Neither are steep drops in yards per attempt, yards per completion and yards per game. Yes, Herbert suffered a rib injury and didn’t look the same after it, but changes needed to be made to maximize this player’s unique skills. Enter Kellen Moore. He’s engineered some nasty offenses in Dallas, and, no offense to Dak Prescott, Herbert has a way higher ceiling. He’s also surrounded by elite WRs, a brand new rookie receiver, and arguably the best all around RB in football who led the position in receptions. Herbert in a down year almost threw for 4,800 yards. I’m of the mind that anyone drafting Joe Burrow at No. 34 overall should just wait a round, fill another spot, and pick up Herbert at this ADP. Herbert has the same upside, if not more, and costs less. Simple.
Mike Williams, WR (ADP: 69): Williams is tantalizing in this offense paired with Herbert, and the possibilities with Moore on the sideline seem endless, but whether or not Williams justifies this ADP comes down to one factor: touchdowns. Williams is what he is, a big, fast beast who lines up on the outside, runs deep routes, and clobbers DBs who try to jump with him. He’s a guy who can win weeks, and at his best, we’ve seen him pile up 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns. If he does that, hell yeah he returned value. But we’ve never seen Williams get to 80 receptions, and he's only gotten to 1,000 yards twice in six seasons. At this point, the ship has sailed on Williams being the alpha receiver for the Chargers, and it’s a very risky way to build a team if you are reliant on him as a WR1. This ADP is fair because the ceiling is so very high, but more often than not placing faith in Williams ultimately ends in frustration.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Quentin Johnston, WR (ADP: 123): Johnston could complicate matters for Williams, in that he does a lot of the same things and he could replace Williams outright if he’s able to stay healthier. Johnston caught a career-high 60 passes for TCU last season, topping 1,000 yards and matching his career-best six touchdowns. Reception Perception notes that Johnston does have some drop issues, and isn’t quite as consistent as you’d like to see from a player his size, but he is a game breaker nonetheless and someone who can do damage on designed touches if Williams is crushing defenses deep. Johnston will probably be too inconsistent as a rookie to be a reliable option from the get-go, but he’ll be a bomb threat from Day 1 and his upside is well worth the risk at this ADP.
Gerald Everett, TE (ADP: 182): For an offense that figures to be so high-powered, Everett is a shockingly boring TE option. He was actually quite good though, and he’s not as old as he feels; at 29 years old, Everett can easily be a late option for fantasy managers who miss/pass on the premier TEs earlier in drafts. Everett put up 58 receptions, 555 yards and four touchdowns last season and delivered similar stats the previous year in Seattle. That’s what he is, and it’s fine. Everett’s never going to be why you win, but he saw five or more targets 10 times, caught four or more passes nine times, and hit 50 yards or more five times. Bear in mind Everett maxed out at 80 yards in 2022, and never scored multiple touchdowns in a game. Ideally, you will have a TE who can provide a higher weekly ceiling than Everett, but with him you have, at worst, a capable and involved player.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Josh Palmer, WR (ADP: 300): Had Palmer capitalized on his opportunity last year when injuries bit the Chargers, Johnston might not be on the team. With Williams and Johnston in the mix though, it’s hard to see a path where Palmer gets enough volume to be fantasy relevant. He’s a good player to have in the WR mix, but unfortunately doesn’t stand out enough to be playable on fantasy teams.
Donald Parham Jr., TE (ADP: N/A): Parham is digging deep for a sleeper, but he’s impressed when he gets a shot. Parham saw just 47 total targets in his first two seasons, yet scored six touchdowns. Last year, he made just one start, but caught 10 balls for 130 yards and a score on only 12 targets. At 6’8, 237 lbs. he’s a brutal matchup for opposing defenses, and PFF gave him an 82.2 receiving grade, a number comparable to Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews. If he ever got a full time starting role on this team, he might be able to shock everyone.