2023 Team Previews: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Mark Andrews, TE (ADP: 32): 2022 was a big setback for Andrews statistically after he put up over 1,300 yards in 2021, but the fault was not his. At 28 years old, Andrews hasn’t hit the wall yet. His production fell off a cliff directly when QB Lamar Jackson got hurt and never came back. Prior to Week 14, Andrews had compiled 56 receptions for 654 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games. Post Week 14, Andrews totaled just 193 yards and failed to find the end zone catching passes from Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown. Even before the Jackson injury, Andrews’ upside was being limited by a frustrating dependency on the run and a stale offense, which has been overhauled this year. There are lots of promises of a far more free-wheeling attack, with Jackson acting as the tip of the spear as a passer; this will have pros and cons, but ultimately it can only be good news for Andrews, who is the clear-cut primary target.

Aside from his immense talent, Andrews’ appeal is that he hogs a humongous piece of Baltimore’s receiving pie, even as limited as it was. The weapons around him were upgraded this offseason, but he’s still the centerpiece. He deserves the honor; Andrews rated as PFF’s No. 2 TE behind Travis Kelce, and posted the fourth-most Effective Yards (831) per Football Outsiders. Adding better receivers in the mix can only help Andrews, who will find himself more open. I do not see why anyone would draft Travis Kelce at No. 6 overall when Andrews lurks so many picks later.

Lamar Jackson, QB (ADP: 37): I’ve said it before, and will reiterate here, Lamar Jackson is the greatest rushing QB of all time. That’s worth being the starting point, because there’s a lot of chatter about him running less in this new offense, and proving himself as a premier passer of the football. Jackson is undoubtedly a capable passer, and someone who can really provide blowup games through the air, but he’s never delivered consistent, all-around great passing production.

Jackson has never thrown for more than 3,100 yards, which is a mark that the top passers blow by easily. In Years 2 and 3 he balanced the low yardage with elite rushing stats, and unreal touchdown passing efficiency. In the past two seasons, both of which ended with Jackson on the bench due to injury, his touchdown efficiency dropped. Jackson has thrown 23 touchdown passes in the past two years combined, which is 13 fewer than he threw when he won MVP. Of course, that’s not all on Lamar. He’s spent years with subpar receiving options, and he’s also been operating one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses. He also has chewed up so much yardage on the ground, it limits that aerial production. But he’s also thrown 20 picks in his last 24 games, and showed holes in his game of late on deep throws. Simply put, even with his rushing floor being so high, you’ve been disappointed with him if you drafted him the past two seasons.

2023 is going to be a very pivotal year for Jackson, the fantasy asset. As the QB5 off the board, his reputation is still pristine. Fantasy managers are still drafting him with the idea that a QB1 overall finish is a realistic outcome. Concerns are creeping in – will he really run less? Is the drop in TD pass efficiency permanent? Will he keep getting hurt? But there are also new variables in his favor, such as brand new receivers and an offensive scheme that will be built to improve his passing production. I would say there’s enough risk here that No. 37 overall is not a bargain, but it's also a better value to me than, say, Patrick Mahomes at No. 18. This is a good ADP, and not one I’d be afraid of.

**J.K. Dobbins, RB (ADP: 53): Dobbins’ stats in 2022 require deeper inspection, because on the surface they don’t look like the numbers of a Top 20 fantasy RB. It took Dobbins a long time to resemble himself after a horrible knee injury, but he finished the season his usual, efficient self (5.7 yards per carry, 5.9 career) and from Weeks 14-17 he paced this offense with 99.3 yards per game on 14.3 attempts. Dobbins saw double-digit carries five times in 2022, rushing for 90+ yards in three of them, and scoring at least one touchdown twice. Even though Greg Roman’s run-heavy approach is gone, this is still a team that’s built to run the ball well, and Dobbins’ efficiency, plus the draft capital spent on him in 2020, equate to a pretty high-volume role for him. Much is made about Dobbins’ lack of involvement in the passing game, and a typical comment about him is that not catching passes limits his ceiling. I’d disagree. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb aren’t pass catchers either, and they’ve each been consensus first round picks. Dobbins has shown that caliber of talent, he has a role that secures him volume, and he graded as one of the NFL’s best rushers last year. He can finish as an RB1 for sure, so this ADP offers value.

Rashod Bateman, WR (ADP: 109): Baltimore was busy improving the WR corps this offseason, so I am a bit surprised to see Bateman still be the first Ravens WR off the board. Bateman flashed big time last year, but foot injuries limited him to only six games and derailed his whole year. Bateman scored his two touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season, when he totaled 167 yards on six receptions. Both touchdowns were massive strikes from 55 and 75 yards out; while impressive, they sure did have the look of unsustainable scoring. Sure enough, in Weeks 3 and 4 Bateman totaled five catches for 76 yards and zero TDs. Bateman is no doubt talented, but what he did those first two weeks felt fluky, and that kind of playmaking isn’t sustainable for even the cream of the crop. Averaging 19 yards per catch is cool, but it doesn’t read as reliable, which is what fantasy managers want. Now he’s competing with big names in the receiver room, and catching balls from a QB who has never supported more than two fantasy relevant pass catchers. Bateman is only the WR47 off the board, but I’m still way out on him at this ADP.

Odell Beckham, WR (ADP: 119): Beckham was the big catch for the Ravens this offseason, and he got a bag, so expect to see him on the field. Beckham is coming off two ACL tears, so it remains to be seen whether or not he can approach his previous form, but he looked damn good with the Rams after his first one. In eight games with the Rams in 2021, Beckham caught 27 passes for 305 yards and was a monster target in the end zone for Matthew Stafford, scoring five touchdowns. Beckham was still highly successful vs. man coverage, and tore up press coverage over 75% of the time per Reception Perception. He didn’t play at all last season, which is alarming considering how much interest teams had in him; it clearly shows that, late last season, he was still very diminished from his peak. The Ravens took a risk offering him as much money as they did, but if he can at least be the version of himself that helped the Rams win a Super Bowl, then he’ll score touchdowns for the Ravens and be a fantasy contributor.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Zay Flowers, WR (ADP: 120): Flowers is my favorite of the three top Ravens receivers, and the best bet for me to be the second valuable pass-catcher for Lamar behind Andrews. Flowers was my third-favorite rookie for this season for two main reasons; first, he’s battling Bateman, who is one-dimensional, and Beckham, who has suffered two massive knee injuries, among other ailments. Second, he’s a separation king, which will attract the attention of Jackson who isn’t always the most precise passer. Flowers succeeded vs. all types of coverage and put up legit numbers – 1,077 yards, 12 touchdowns – for Boston College in an offense that was not good. Flowers can get open consistently on shorter routes and turn into a volume play, or do damage deeper down the field and be an efficient field-stretcher. How Baltimore deploys him remains to be seen but Beckham is the only other player on this team with as much versatility, and again, he’s turning 31 and coming off of three major lower body injuries.

**Gus Edwards, RB (ADP: 195): Edwards is a forgotten man on this team, likely because his recovery from a knee injury happened slower than Dobbins’, and he was already behind Dobbins on the depth chart. Now a full season removed, Edwards should be ready to assume his role as a clear handcuff to Dobbins. Under Greg Roman, the Ravens ran the ball so much that Edwards was a borderline FLEX play even when he and Dobbins were both healthy. That won’t be the case anymore, and is reflected in this ADP, but Edwards, like Dobbins, graded very well in 2022. The year-end numbers obscured a return to form, and in the five games where he got double-digit carries, he eclipsed 60 yards in four of them. I’d stop short of calling him a league-winner in the event of a big Dobbins injury, because his big play ability is nowhere near what Dobbins provides, but he’d be a locked-in, high-end RB2 if he had this role to himself. That’s much more valuable than RB62.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Isaiah Likely, TE (ADP: 220): Likely is a talented player who is blocked by one of the best TEs in football. Likely flashed a little when Andrews missed time, but Andrews is going to dominate target share, and now Likely must compete with Flowers, Beckham and even Bateman for opportunities. I just don’t see the path to relevancy for him without an injury to Andrews, and even that doesn’t guarantee volume if the receivers are able to pick up the slack. The ADP is basically free, but I would view this as just wasting a roster spot.