2023 Team Previews: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

CeeDee Lamb, WR (ADP: 11): Those who gambled on a Lamb breakout last season were rewarded with a 107-catch, 1,359-yard, nine-touchdown campaign in his first season as the clear-cut WR1. The loss of Amari Cooper didn’t slow down Lamb a bit, because of what a versatile receiver he is. Lamb posted above-average success rates on almost every route except for nines and posts, and dominated man and press coverage to the tune of 75.6% and 78.4% success rates, respectively. He was no slouch vs. zone either, putting up an 80.5% success rate, and he did all this while lining up all over the place. Per Reception Perception, he spent 41.9% of his snaps on the outside and 51.1% in the slot. Teams were so afraid of Lamb that they often doubled him even when he was in the slot, and he conquered double teams at a 67.6% clip. It might be a little scary to take the plunge on Lamb in the first round, but Lamb really could have a season that resembles anyone in the Top 5. He just hasn’t done it yet, so it’s scarier than picking Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. There’s no issue with Lamb at No. 11 overall.

Tony Pollard, RB (ADP: 23): Pollard is the man now, as his incredible efficiency finally convinced the Cowboys to cut the cord on Ezekiel Elliott, who was fading before our eyes. Entrusting Pollard with the lead role will not be the same as when Zeke had it, however. The volume we saw Zeke dominate with isn’t going to be a burden they place on Pollard, who is smaller, and a different style back. Pollard was elite last season without reaching 200 carries, because he’s rushed for 5.1 yards per carry for his career and is heavily involved as a pass-catcher.

Pollard was PFF’s No. 4 RB last season, earning not only high marks for his rushing and receiving, but also as a pass-blocker ensuring that he will not be taken off the field on passing downs. Pollard might cede some early down work to other RBs on the team, but that’s for the better as it gives fantasy managers a better chance of enjoying his production all season. This ADP puts Pollard as the RB9 off the board, so he is currently being drafted near his ceiling, and he’s coming off a gnarly high ankle sprain/fractured fibula. While he’s expected to be at full speed in training camp, it's a little concerning. But at the end of the day his big play ability, secure role and being in a high-scoring offense make this ADP just right.

Dak Prescott, QB (ADP: 83): Turning the backfield over to Pollard has a direct effect on Dak Prescott; it means the Cowboys are going to throw the ball more. Pollard is going to lead the backfield in touches, but he’s not going to be a workhorse in the mold of Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard is going to catch more passes, and Dallas is going to throw more overall which is why they brought in Brandin Cooks to supplement the passing game.

Prescott missed some games last season, and had a down year by his standards, averaging the fewest yards per game (238.3) since 2019. He also posted the highest interception rate (3.8%) of his career by a good margin. It’s also going to be interesting to see Prescott in this offense sans Kellen Moore, who is gone to go work with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, and with Brian Schottenheimer. Both Schottenheimer and Mike McCarthy are on record as wanting to run the ball more, which is at odds with releasing Elliott, and not credibly filling out the RB depth chart behind Pollard, who is coming off injury and was already a player whose touches were monitored. I’m of the mind that the run-heavy talk is just talk, because the reality of this offense is that throwing the ball is the best bet.

Finally, we once had to come to the realization that Russell Wilson was no longer a “running QB.” I believe we’re there with Dak, after a second straight (really third, but 2020 was only five games) season of fewer than 200 rushing yards. Prescott has only amassed 328 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in his last 28 games under center. He’s capable of producing as a runner, but that’s not a built in part of his game anymore, and it lowers his fantasy ceiling. Prescott has to be looked at more as a Joe Burrow type, and he’s just not that level of a talent. He’s currently being drafted as the QB10, and while he can very easily finish there, I don’t think No. 83 overall is where I want to be taking a QB with very little rushing upside at this point.

Brandin Cooks, WR (ADP: 90): Cooks’ arrival in Dallas was a topic I went over here, but in short, his arrival is a bit of a referendum on where the Cowboys feel they are with Michael Gallup. Gallup was paid big bucks to be an outside receiver, and fill the void vacated by Amari Cooper, and he did not do that in 2022. Can he do it? We’ll get to that, but now Cooks is going to be the primary option to fill that role. Cooks was terrible in terms of production last season, playing in 13 games, catching only 57 passes, close to a career low, and putting up only 699 yards, the fewest since his rookie year, all while giving the Texans organization headaches. He’ll also turn 30 this year, so it’s easy to see why Cooks isn’t exactly a sought-after commodity.

Then again, he’s being drafted outside the Top 40 WRs, and throughout his career which has spanned four teams, and more than four QBs, when healthy Cooks has delivered 1,000+ yards and 6-9 touchdowns reliably. When I first broke down him joining the Cowboys, I did anticipate his ADP being even lower than No. 90 overall. I expect Cooks to be closer to the reliable version of himself than the wreck we saw in Houston last season, but I do not believe he has low-end WR1 potential anymore, so this ADP is fair. There’s no reason to think he cannot justify a WR42 projection, but if the ceiling is low-end WR2, then this ADP offers just modest value. Fine, not exceptional.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Michael Gallup, WR (ADP: 163): For a second straight season, Gallup missed time, failed to get to 40 receptions, and didn’t make it to 450 yards. His efficiency dropped, as he posted a career-low 10.9 yards per catch, and he hasn’t been at 1,000 yards since 2019, which was the only time he hit that mark. He rated as the last man inside PFF’s Top 85 and graded far worse than Cooks did despite having significantly better QB play. Gallup has always flashed such tantalizing big play ability, but we’re now entering Year 6 of his career and he’s only made a fantasy impact once in that time. Lamb is a hands down alpha, and Cooks is a proven veteran who has replicated Gallup’s best year several times. Gallup’s too talented to completely give up on, and this ADP is essentially a free lotto ticket, so if you want to gamble that’s fine. But he’s unlikely to become much more than a dart throw where you have your fingers crossed and pray for a long TD.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Jake Ferguson, TE (ADP: 237): Ferguson had a quiet rookie season, but he presents pretty big upside based on his role alone. He only caught 19 passes in 2022, so this isn’t based on his career. This is based solely on the expectation that he is Dallas’ starting TE in 2023, because this offense has historically made use of its TEs. Ferguson graded very well as a receiver per PFF, and Dalton Schultz, an unexceptional player in terms of physicality, was second on the team with 89 targets, which he turned into 57 catches, 577 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re workable when the player in question is going well after pick No. 200. I wouldn’t be comfortable entering Week 1 with just Ferguson as my lead TE, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he worked his way into being a back-end TE1.  

Ronald Jones II, RB (ADP: 317): Jones is a good runner of the football. He’s never evolved into a three-down back, never topped 1,000 yards, and never become much of a pass-catcher. Because of these things, I don’t see Jones being a major impact even if Pollard were to get hurt and Jones ascend to RB1. Should that happen, Jones would see an uptick in workload, but likely be taken out on passing downs and lose snap share in negative game scripts. Still, if you like to draft handcuffs, Jones might perform enough to be a weekly FLEX if Pollard were to miss time.

Peyton Hendershot, TE (ADP: N/A): Hendershot, another second year TE, is in the mix to replace Schultz as well. His stats were similarly non-existent like Ferguson’s but Ferguson’s draft capital probably gives him an edge. Ferguson also was a much better-graded receiver than Hendershot. Still, pay attention who is getting the work in the preseason, because this position has value. Schultz was a complete nobody once upon a time.