2023 Team Previews: Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Justin Jefferson, WR (ADP: 1): It’s a bit of a waste of time to go on about how great Jefferson is, because we all already realize it. However, as the consensus No. 1 overall pick, is he so great that he should be taken over three down running backs, who touch the ball all game long and are becoming rarer every season? In a word, yes. While quality WRs are more plentiful later in drafts than quality RBs, Jefferson provides tremendous separation from even other elite players at his position. We’re talking about a player who has never fallen below 1,400 receiving yards in a season, or seven touchdowns. He’s a premier target hound, and caught nearly 130 passes in 2022, all while never sacrificing efficiency; despite the gaudy targets and catch totals he still averaged 14.1 yards per reception, and that was actually a career-low. On top of all that, he not only offers consistency, but consistent greatness. Jefferson played in all 17 games in 2022, and went over 100 yards in 10 of them. He caught six or more passes 13 times, saw at least five targets in every game, and scored a touchdown in almost half his games. It is understandable to want to go RB with the first overall pick, but if you feel yourself being tempted by Jefferson, it’s okay to give in.
T.J. Hockenson, TE (ADP: 41): Hockenson is one of the more interesting players this year to consider, because he is a cosmic gumbo of conflicting ideas. We love the freak athlete TEs like Kyle Pitts or George Kittle, and Hockenson is decidedly not that. But while we can get bored with high-volume accumulators, which Hockenson is likely to be, they do prove useful fantasy assets. Hockenson, a former Top 10 overall pick, had been a bit disappointing through his three and a half years in Detroit, but he was a major boost to fantasy teams down the stretch of 2022 once he was traded to the Vikings. Hockenson arrived and was quickly soaking up targets as the No. 2 option behind Jefferson, draining value from guys like Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn. He had caught 26 passes through seven games for the Lions, and hauled in 60 in the final 10 games for Minnesota. That volume should continue, as this team moves more toward the passing game, but there are drawbacks too.
Hockenson’s yards per reception dropped from 15.2 with the Lions to 8.7 with Minnesota, which tells us that he’s going to need every bit of that volume to account for lost yardage. The Vikings made a notable addition to this receiving corps that could force Hockenson to share, and which could result in disappointing results relative to ADP. He was also consistent, which is valuable for the position, but when you’re flirting with the Top 40 ADP he has to be compared to all other players in the range. Hockenson logged 11 games with fewer than 50 receiving yards and nine games with fewer than five catches. He’s a solid player, but is that production worth passing on DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Justin Fields or Joe Mixon? Those are the next four players going, and I couldn’t envision drafting Hockenson over them. Nice player, price is too high right now.
**Alexander Mattison, RB (ADP: 70): Mattison, unlike Hockenson, is being undervalued. We have known for years that Mattison was a quality back, and he proved it every time Dalvin Cook missed time, but now there appears to be hesitancy. Maybe it is because Mattison doesn’t have big play chops, or because he’s never been a three-down guy for a whole season, but it’s taking time for the fantasy community to warm up to him. That’s value, friends.
Efficiency has never been Mattison’s calling card, but that matters less when there’s no real competition for opportunity. Cook left, Mattison is elevated and no one of note has been added to the RB room as of this writing. That leaves Mattison to finally get a lead back’s workload and he has always risen to the occasion when given that chance. In five career games with 20 or more carries, Mattison has never put up fewer than 90 rushing yards, and he’s scored three times. This is a good RB, in a good offense that’s going to put up points.
Jordan Addison, WR (ADP: 87): Addison is coming in with a lot of hype, and maybe he lives up to it. He’s a talented dude, and at Pitt as a sophomore he put up 100 receptions, 1,593 yards and 18 total touchdowns. Many see that Adam Thielen was allowed to leave, see the first round draft capital spent on Addison, and equate it to “Addison takes the Thielen role.” To that I say…not so fast.
Addison is a different player than Thielen, and as a small guy he struggles at times with press coverage. While he’s able to get open because of his mature route running, Addison least successful routes are nines, and he’s far from elite in contested catch situations. The way I read this is that Addison has the potential to be a very helpful player in half-PPR and full-PPR formats by being peppered with short and intermediate targets. The flip side of that is a lack of big plays, lower efficiency, and most likely a low TD total. That doesn’t sound like Adam Thielen to me, and definitely not peak Thielen. Addison could be a nice player, but the rookie year ceiling isn’t high enough to justify this ADP, and I see a fair amount of bust potential.
Kirk Cousins, QB (ADP: 94): Cousins, forever drafted as the ultimate safety net after missing out on all the QBs you actually wanted, is finally going as a No. 1 QB (QB12) as of this writing. While Cousins is a fine real life QB, there’s a reason why he feels so blah for fantasy managers. The reason is that his production, while strong – 4,000+ yards in seven of the last eight years, 33+ TDs in two of the last three – is rarely the reason you win. Cousins is a phenomenal option vs. bad pass defenses, but he is often mediocre against better ones, and can never save a bad passing performance with his legs. Cousins is fine to take as your starting QB to begin the year, but the recommendation would be to take a flier on a riskier player late with some rushing ability. Maybe that player pops, but if not, Cousins can at least provide cover.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
K.J. Osborn, WR (ADP: 141): Osborn, entering Year 4 of his career, is someone to keep an eye on. He’s flashed a lot of talent before, but his year-end numbers are never those of a player you could’ve reliably deployed week after week. He’s consistently been 50-60 catches and 650 yards in the two seasons we’ve seen him play, but he has also always been behind established receiving options, and in an offense that was centered around Dalvin Cook. Cook’s gone now, and while Addison’s first round price likely means he’s ahead of Osborn in the pecking order, Osborn seems more built to be on the outside a la Thielen. Another thing Osborn has proven is that he has a nose for the end zone, having scored 12 in the last two years despite limited action. If my life was on the line, I’d bet against Osborn becoming a fantasy WR2 this year, but I believe he’s an interesting gamble at this ADP. I’d prefer drafting him here than Addison at his ADP.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Ty Chandler, RB (ADP: 242): Chandler has a little buzz, likely because there’s such a barren depth chart in Minnesota. He only logged six carries as a rookie, so we were able to learn essentially nothing, but he did put up a nice senior season with the North Carolina Tar Heels in 2021 that included 1,092 rushing yards and 13 scores. Chandler never did much as a receiver out of the backfield, so that doesn’t appear to be a pathway to playing time, meaning he’s going to have to usurp Mattison. That’s not happening without a training camp injury, so I am not viewing him as anything more than a pure handcuff, and not one that merits much attention on Draft Day.