2023 Team Previews: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview 2023
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Christian McCaffery, RB (ADP: 2): McCaffery is the most well-rounded RB in football, an absolute force for fantasy managers and is playing in arguably the most well-oiled offense in football. One of the few concerns about CMC when he was traded from Carolina to San Francisco was whether or not he’d maintain such a dominant hold on touches, since the 49ers are far more stocked with weaponry at the skill positions than the Panthers were. It turned out, that didn’t matter. His carry count remained the same, he saw slightly less volume as a receiver and his efficiency rose a bit canceling out the small downtick in receiving opportunity. Of course, injury is always a major worry for CMC managers, but at the end of the day any player can get hurt, and very few offer the potential for complete dominance that McCaffery does. He’s more than deserving of the No. 2 overall pick, and in many leagues he will go first. That’s great too.
Deebo Samuel, WR (ADP: 34): Samuel had a bit of a down year in 2022, but that doesn’t seem to have affected his ADP too much as he’s still currently the No. 16 receiver off the board. I did a fantasy autopsy of Samuel’s underwhelming 2022, and two things stood out. First, Samuel’s TD total dropped dramatically from 14 to five; that’s not completely shocking, as TDs do not tend to remain static, and therefore fantasy managers can reasonably expect that number to rise again in 2023. The more worrisome finding was that Deebo’s efficiency fell off a cliff, as he lost almost seven yards off his yards per reception pace and his Average Depth of Target (ADOT) get cut in half. He also lost about 16 yards per game and nine rushing yards per game once McCaffery joined the offense.
Samuel still provided spike performances, and he is still one of the most devastating receivers in football against zone and in the open field since the first tackler almost never brings him down, but the consistency he provided in 2021 is unlikely to return in an offensive environment that’s this loaded and revolves around McCaffery. He’ll offer week-winning performances, and he could become the focal point again if CMC goes down, but for now this ADP is not very likely to return huge value.
**George Kittle, TE (ADP: 58): Kittle is one of the most confusing and frustrating players every season, because his talent almost never matches up with his year-end numbers. 2022 was even weirder, because his final stats – 60 receptions, 765 yards, 11 TDs – are superb for a tight end, and yet if you had him you probably weren’t in the playoffs to enjoy the bulk of those numbers. Numbers can definitely lie, because of those 11 touchdowns, seven were scored in the final four weeks of the season. Prior to Week 15, Kittle was averaging just 3.8 catches and 45.5 yards per game, and had scored four touchdowns in 11 games. In that span Kittle put up fewer than 50 yards eight times, and fewer than 30 yards six times. He was maddening.
And yet, Kittle graded as PFF’s No. 2 TE behind only Travis Kelce, posted the second-highest receiving grade (87.8), the third best Defense Adjusted Yards above Replacement (DYAR) per Football Outsiders and a Top 3 TE DVOA (22.6%). He’s an absolute monster of a player, and I’m willing to keep betting on his ability in the hopes that one of these seasons it’ll click more consistently. Perhaps Kittle’s blocking prowess is just a factor that will work against him forever for fantasy, but I truly believe in his efficiency, and the 49ers’ brain trust to properly utilize the many awesome players at their disposal. I am not afraid of him at this ADP.
**Brandon Aiyuk, WR (ADP: 66): Aiyuk was finally out of the doghouse in 2022 and showed once again what a talent he is. He posted his first 1,000+-yard season, finishing with 78 receptions, 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns. He improved his consistency, delivering at least 60 yards eight times and scoring at least one touchdown in two games in which he fell below that 60-yard mark. Like Samuel and Kittle, Aiyuk will sometimes be prone to low usage simply because of the level of talent surrounding him on this team, but Aiyuk is becoming so good that he is going to demand target share. Per Reception Perception, Aiyuk beat man coverage 77.1% of the time, good for the 91st percentile of WRs, and he was nearly at an 80% success rate vs. zone. He complemented Samuel very nicely, because on the deeper routes that require separation Aiyuk thrived – nine routes (58.6% success), posts (82.6% success) and corners (62.5% success). Aiyuk is talented enough to break out as a truly elite receiver, and I would prefer to draft him at his ADP than Deebo in the early 30s.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Elijah Mitchell, RB (ADP: 124): Mitchell could be a potent starter on a lot of teams, and as the 49ers’ backup I still think he has standalone value. As covered here, Mitchell is my favorite handcuff to draft this season because he’s much more than a handcuff. Injuries have kept him from reaching his full potential, but when he’s on the field Mitchell runs like a bat out of hell. He’s averaged 4.9 yards per carry in his short career, and finished 2022 at 6.2 yards per attempt. He took over the job as a rookie and rushed for 963 yards in just 11 games. Last season, he only played in five games, but was at 4.9 per carry or better in all of them. He posted the second-best RB DVOA among rushers with fewer than 100 carries, and had a Top 10 PFF grade if you ignore their snap minimum. Mitchell is so talented, and the 49ers are so concerned with keeping McCaffery fresh and healthy, that Mitchell will see limited work every week. That’s not enough to make him a weekly RB2, but he’ll always be playable in a pinch and be a home run threat. And if CMC misses real time, Mitchell will be an efficiency based lead guy for this team and a borderline RB1 for real fantasy managers in those weeks. That’s a ton of value baked into a guy going as the RB42.
Brock Purdy, QB (ADP: 175): Purdy is going to be the starter if he’s healthy for Week 1, so we will find out if his success last season was real or not. The default opinion is going to be that Purdy might be a fine real-life QB, but is probably one to avoid for fantasy. Maybe that’s true, but it’d be unwise to dismiss him having value without really parsing his rookie season. Purdy only started five games, and finished with 13 passing touchdowns against four interceptions. His 152.7 yards per game obviously leaves a ton to be desired, but his 7.6% TD rate is reminiscent of rookie Russell Wilson, who averaged 194.9 yards per game in Year 1. Wilson eventually got better and better and maintained high TD rates and became a fantasy fixture even though he regularly amassed fewer yards than other elite QBs and played in a run-first offense. I’m not saying Purdy is Russell Wilson, but I am saying that Purdy might be worth a late flier or $1 bid in auctions to close out your draft. And he’s definitely an intriguing, high-upside QB2 in two-QB or SuperFlex leagues.
Trey Lance, QB (ADP: 196): Lance has been a total mystery through two seasons, and he’s going to continue to be unless Purdy isn’t ready for Week 1 or gets injured in season. Lance makes so much sense for fantasy in theory; in what little action we’ve seen, he’s averaged 6.8 rushing attempts and 29.4 yards per game on the ground in eight games (four starts). Passing wise, he was raw and it looked ugly at times, but we saw Justin Fields be elite and average 149.5 yards per game through the air. If Lance can win the job in camp or take it over during the season, he will probably end up being a Top 12 QB during those games. But the reality is he’s probably bad for the skill position players on this team, and he’ll carry a lot of risk in any given week when he can’t find the end zone on the ground.
Deep Cuts (200 & later)
Sam Darnold, QB (ADP: 298): The 49ers have to be the only team with three QBs worth talking about. Darnold has probably been written off by almost everyone, and that’s totally understandable. But remember, he’s only 26, has every physical tool you could ask for in a QB, and has Kyle Shanahan now. We’ve seen Darnold spike and put together stretches of excellent play, but we’ve never seen him in an offense that both makes sense and where he’s been surrounded by actual talent. He has all that in place in San Fran, and might just need a chance to play. It’s possible that happens, since Purdy and Lance are both coming off big injuries. If Darnold starts in Week 1 and thrives under Shanahan, maybe he never lets the job go?