2023 Team Previews: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 9): Diggs is flat out one of the elite NFL receivers, and easily rates as a first round fantasy pick. Since joining the Bills, Diggs has never failed to catch 100 passes, rack up fewer than 1,225 yards or score fewer than eight touchdowns. Diggs is, simply, as consistent a player as you’ll find and a player who, per Reception Perception, essentially has zero flaws in his game.

Josh Allen, QB (ADP: 20): Allen has basically become the prototype of what you’d make in a perfect fantasy QB lab. He’s become a lock for 4,000+ yards, he has thrown for 35 or more touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, and while he does turn the ball over a little more than we’d all like, he is a massive contributor on the ground. Allen isn’t the breakaway runner than Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts are, but he averaged close to 50 yards per game on the ground in 2022 and hasn’t scored fewer than six rushing touchdowns in his NFL career. There have been rumblings that he’s going to run less in 2023; I’ll believe that when I see it, and even if he does, he's such a prolific passer that he’ll be elite anyway. At this ADP, the pick is totally justifiable, even if I’d prefer to wait a little longer for guys like Jackson or Justin Fields and assume a bit more risk.

James Cook, RB (ADP: 84): Cook can be an electric playmaker, and carried hype last season, but fizzled. He didn’t get as much opportunity as we’d like, logging just 89 carries and earning only 32 targets in 16 games. When he did tote it, Cook was efficient; he averaged 5.7 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per touch, but he was not able to usurp Devin Singletary. Entering 2023, with a year under his belt, the potential is exciting in an offense that figures to put up numbers, but the backfield is stocked with capable options. At 5’11, 190 lbs. a bellcow role doesn’t appear to be in his future, so this ADP is a bit rich. There will be safer bets for volume a bit later on in the draft, and possibly from this team.

Gabe Davis, WR (ADP: 89): Davis was a letdown last season, after many people – myself included – counted on him for a big leap based on previous efficiency and an increased role. Instead, Davis continued to be what he is, a downfield threat capable of massive boom games, but also major duds. Davis averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception, the second time in three years he cleared 17, but for the third consecutive season he did not get to 50 catches. Davis saw his targets jump from 63 in 2021 to 93 in 2022, but it only resulted in 13 more receptions. This doesn’t make Davis a bad fantasy option, it just means that if you hoped he would morph into a dependable WR2 or maybe even low-end WR1 like a Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle, that’s unlikely. However, now that his ADP has dipped and he’s the WR41, this is a fine place to take a guy whose spike performances are week-winning.

Damien Harris, RB (ADP: 115): Harris is joining this backfield, muddying up the path for Cook to assume a lead role. Harris is replacing Singletary, who led the team in carries last season, and profiles to have a very similar role. Harris might seem like an upgrade on Singletary in this role, but per PFF, they were similar with Singletary having an edge on him as well as better durability. Harris at RB39 is a better value than Cook at RB30 and nearly 30 picks earlier, but this does not appear to be a backfield which will return a major RB value. Harris has never been a contributor in the passing game, which lowers his ceiling, and he’s not going to have that opportunity with the Bills. Draft him as a depth RB who can be plugged in if the injury bug bites, but counting on him for more than that is a recipe for pain.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Dalton Kincaid, TE (ADP: 137): Kincaid isn’t quite the prospect Kyle Pitts was, but he’s damn good and he’s joining an offense that is begging for a consistent weapon beyond Diggs. He caught 70 passes for 890 yards and eight touchdowns for Utah last season, massive numbers for a college TE, and Buffalo traded up in front of the Cowboys to secure him, so they have plans for his usage right out of the gate. Big production from rookie tight ends is very rare, so this ADP is about right for a player who presents big risk, but Kincaid’s potential is significantly higher than the average TE at this ADP.

Dawson Knox, TE (ADP: 166): Knox, a capable player who has scored 15 touchdowns in the last two seasons for the Bills, is the biggest reason for Kincaid’s ADP landing him at TE16. For as talented as Kincaid is, Knox has been a productive guy for the Bills and he’s going to have a role moving forward. We have seen many offenses utilize two tight ends before to great success…just not for fantasy managers. Knox has been a TD-dependent player for his entire career, and now with Kincaid siphoning targets from an already limited pool, Knox is now probably not fantasy relevant.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Nyheim Hines, RB (ADP: 231): Hines is super explosive, but certainly seems redundant on this team with Cook in the mix. The Bills traded for Hines last season but he really was very seldom used in his seven games. If you believe Cook will have a big role in the passing game, then Hines could as well in the event Cook gets hurt. The addition of Harris all but ensures that Cook or Hines will be involved in passing downs and when the game script calls for heavy passing. But Cook is a far better bet for that role than Hines is, and there’s no world where Hines is anything more than a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

Khalil Shakir, WR (ADP: 235): Shakir’s playmaking potential has people excited, but we have never actually seen him put everything together for even a single game. At this ADP, sure, draft anyone who excites you because they’re all lottery tickets, but Shakir is totally unproven and the Bills’ slot receiver hasn’t really been a premier role for drawing tons of targets. Diggs being in the fold really does limit how much other pass-catchers can eat, so I’d be looking elsewhere for a deep-ADP receiver who can pop.

Latavius Murray, RB (ADP: 267): Laugh if you want, but Murray’s presence on this team has caused me to cool significantly on Cook and Harris. Murray graded out as PFF’s No. 8 RB last season, and he earned an 86 rushing grade, a mark better than Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson…you get it. This doesn’t mean Murray is going to be the lead dog for the Bills and have some RB1 season, but it does mean that he’s likely to be on the field way more than anyone would expect, and he could become a touchdown vulture. Most importantly, if Harris gets hurt, which he does often, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Murray step right into his role and keep Cook relegated to limited passing down stuff.

Trent Sherfield, WR (ADP: 284): Sherfield hasn’t had much opportunity in his career as he enters Year 6, but last season he saw a career-high 51 targets as a Dolphin and turned them into 30 receptions for 417 yards and two scores. Nothing spectacular, but it’s more than we’ve seen from Shakir, and I’d say these two have roughly equal chances of being Buffalo’s WR3, and the fifth option in this offense. That’s not great, but when the QB is basically a meta-human, that role could be stream-worthy in the right matchups.