Leap To Elite: Is Justin Fields The Next Jalen Hurts, Or Will His Passing Hold Him Back?

After an electric season from second-year QB Justin Fields in which he rushed for the second-most yards for a QB in NFL history, his ADP is about to spike with dreams of becoming the next Jalen Hurts floating in the minds of fantasy managers. It’s an easy leap to make, and the two share a lot of similarities, but is that methodology too flawed and basic?

While Fields was a high-performing fantasy QB in 2022, he stretched the cheat-code aspect of QB rushing to its limit. As a rusher, Fields was absolutely unreal. He rushed at least six times in all 15 games he played in last season, logged double-digit rushing attempts eight times, and thrice crossed the 15-carry threshold. He rushed for more than 100 yards three times, and topped 50 yards 10 times. On the season, he finished with 1,143 yards, eight rushing touchdowns and he averaged 76.2 yards per game. Production like that can really mask lower-end passing production, but it does come at a cost. It dramatically increases his likelihood of injury, and Fields did get hurt, while also creates risk of major underperformance if he experiences a down tick in rushing touchdowns. While rushing is a beautiful tool to have in a fantasy QB toolbelt, you do want your quarterback to be able to produce through the air.

Fields’ 91.5 rushing grade per PFF was incredible, but his 54.4 passing grade is even more staggering. That ugly number put him below Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan last year, among others. Fields finished the 2022 season with only 17 passing touchdowns, and just two 200+-yard games to his name. Even worse, the Bears wouldn’t even unleash him when they were losing; Chicago did not allow Fields to attempt 30 passes once during the entire season, which begs the question of whether they failed to unleash him, or chose to not expose him. Fields did not have much in the way of receiving options last season, but that excuse only goes so far. His rushing floor makes him a lock QB1, but to be like Jalen Hurts, his passing must improve. This is the part where Fields apologists will scream that this was Hurts’ narrative before breaking out. I was part of it! But lets take a look at Hurts’ season before he ascended to the truly elite tier.

So, here’s the stuff that looks like Fields in 2022. Hurts threw 16 touchdown passes in 15 games to Fields’ 17. He rushed six or more times in 14 games to Fields’ 15, posted eight games of 50+ rushing yards to Fields’ 10. Fields was a significantly more productive rusher, with 1,100+ yards on the ground to Hurts’ 784 and Hurts averaged more than 20 fewer yards per game on the ground. As good a rusher as Hurts was and is, Fields is clearly superior in that regard. But while Hurts did have questions about his ability to function as a passer, he was miles ahead of Fields. Hurts threw the ball 30+ times six times to Fields’ zero, eclipsed 200 yards six times vs. two for Fields, and even sailed past 300 yards twice while Hurts never even got to 250. His 69.2 PFF passing grade blows away Hurts’ mark, and he totaled more than 3,100 passing yards. He wasn’t elite, and he had issues, but the Eagles let him loose when necessary, rather than keep the reins tight.

So Fields, while possessing a strong arm and boasting some truly impressive, highlight-reel throws across his two NFL seasons, was not the caliber of passer Hurts was prior to his breakout. With that said, there’s a pretty direct line connecting Hurts making a leap, and the acquisition of WR A.J. Brown to join second-year WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. The Eagles upgraded the receiving talent for Hurts as an investment in him, and the Bears did the same this offseason when they acquired the perennially underrated D.J. Moore. He won’t come with the fanfare of Brown, but Moore has put up 1,100+ yards in three of his last four seasons, and joins Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. Most importantly, Chicago traded out of the top pick in the draft, signaling they believe in Fields and are willing to stock his cupboard.

So is Fields the next Jalen Hurts? In short, no. Fields hasn’t shown he’s as far along as Hurts was, and the coaches have not even allowed him to make his mistakes and learn in real time yet. He also is throwing to an improved receiving corps, but not one that comes close to Hurts’ crew in Philly. However, he can come close to what Hurts did because of how much more dangerous he is as a rusher. Fields can definitely be a Top 5 fantasy QB, but he’s not Jalen Hurts, and he will carry greater risk entering the 2023 campaign.