On The Move: Dalvin Cook's Release Makes Alexander Mattison Very Exciting

The Vikings have released Dalvin Cook, in a move that certainly shakes up the RB board for fantasy managers. Not only does it throw Cook’s value into flux, it massively raises the floor and ceiling for his longtime backup Alexander Mattison. Cook amassed nearly 1,500 yards from scrimmage last season and notched double-digit touchdowns (10) for the third time in four years, so Minnesota’s move seems head-scratching for a contender. Except…did they make themselves better?

On the surface, it seems difficult to get better by releasing one of the best RBs in the league. And yes, without him, their depth is obviously not improved. But if you’re willing to put stock in smaller sample sizes, it’s pretty clear that Mattison was actually better than Cook across the board and was being held back by his presence. Cook was unusually healthy last year and played in all 17 games, so Mattison was held to only 74 carries; he still scored five rushing touchdowns and caught 15 passes for 91 yards and an additional score. Per PFF, Mattison graded ahead of Cook overall (71.5, 35th overall vs. 68.1, 43rd overall), and posted an elite 84.2 grade while providing far superior pass blocking. More? There’s more. Per Football Outsiders, Cook posted a -10.8% RB DVOA, tied with Cam Akers, who was maligned all season and ranked him 36th in the metric. Mattison did not qualify for a ranking because he didn’t clear 100 rushes, but he did post a 1.0% DVOA, far superior to Cook’s. Cook put up 1,173 yards on the ground, but only 899 Effective yards, while Mattison put up 323 Effective yards vs. 283 real yards.

After being one of the NFL’s premier, consistent sources for touchdowns, Cook managed only six in 2021 in 13 games, and then eight last season. He posted the fewest yards per carry of his career, and while it remained a healthy 4.4 yards, it still marks decline from his peak that was visible to the naked eye. Cook’s attempts per game dropped to 15.5, and his yards per game fell below 70, both his worst marks since 2018. He’s no old man, but Cook is entering his age 27 season, a point in a RB’s career where Father Time begins taking notice of them, and he’s got nearly 1,300 carries on his ledger. RBs fall off a cliff quick, and Cook is potentially on the precipice, especially with his history of nagging shoulder injuries. Mattison, on the other hand, is entering his age 25 season with only 404 carries to his name. He’s downright spry, and while he absolutely does not possess Cook’s home run hitting ability, he has thrived when given bigger workloads. Mattison has five career games in which he has logged 20 or more carries. He has never rushed for fewer than 90 yards in those games, averaging 104.4 yards on the ground with three touchdowns.

Based on the production Cook has put up vs. Mattison, we can’t use that and say the Vikings have upgraded. But Mattison appeared to do more with less than Cook did in 2022, has proven he can produce when given enough opportunity, and is fresher. Additionally, the Vikings appear to be transitioning to more of a passing team than they’ve been in the past, with Justin Jefferson emerging as the league’s best receiver, and rookie Jordan Addison being added in the draft, so Mattison’s pass blocking prowess will keep him on the field for three downs. Mattison doesn’t have the explosiveness to raise him up to a Top 5-type ceiling, but this move makes him a comfortable RB2, with low-end RB1 potential. As for Cook? Let’s wait and see where he lands before deciding what this means for him.