Leap To Elite: Kadarius Toney Can Electrify The Chiefs If He Stays Out Of The Doghouse

When Tyreek Hill was traded from the Chiefs, a void opened up for the No. 1 WR role to be filled. Despite winning the Super Bowl, no one really grabbed the brass ring. TE Travis Kelce was the undisputed top pass catcher, and free agent import Juju Smith-Schuster soaked up some volume – 101 targets, 78 receptions, 933 yards, three TDs – but Kansas City relied on Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance to paper over the massive void Hill left behind. During the season the Chiefs sneakily traded for Kadarius Toney, who was slowed by injuries and couldn’t show off his full capabilities. However, Toney does have a chance to resemble Hill in this offense.

Toney entered the league a raw receiving prospect, and even during his electric rookie season with the Giants Reception Perception pointed out that he was in the 5th percentile against man coverage (52.1% success rate) and 11th percentile vs. press (50% success rate). What Toney did do was torch zone coverage to the tune of an 80% success rate and average 5.8 yards after the catch, a number which jumped to 6.8 last season in limited action. The Giants knew he was a very raw player, and while he was on the field for them, managed to get him the ball in ways they knew he’d thrive. He flashed as a rookie vs. the Saints with a six-catch, 78-yard, one touchdown effort and then he followed that up with his signature NFL performance vs. Dallas in which he hauled in 10 passes for 189 yards, destroying star CB Trevon Diggs.

Last season, he found himself in the doghouse, injured, or both with the Giants and their new coaching staff decided they did not want the headache. He was shipped to Kansas City, and statistically couldn’t find a groove because of how often he got nicked up. He never drew more than five targets in any game with the Chiefs last year, but still racked up 14 catches for 171 yards and three total touchdowns in his seven games. Better yet, PFF liked what it saw, handing him a 78 overall grade, and 76.4 receiving grade. Toney earned a healthy 14.2% WR DVOA from Football Outsiders, ranking him 19th in that metric among receivers who caught between 10-49 passes. Those metrics are promising indicators that Toney can approximate Hill’s big play ability in this offense, even if he does it in different fashion.

Toney is a playmaker, but while fast, he doesn’t have the world-class track speed that Hill possesses, nor his prowess on deep routes that take the top off of defenses. Toney’s success vs. zone defenses was noted earlier, and he will be coming in to replace Smith-Schuster, who was also very successful at beating zones. Smith-Schuster succeeded 82.5% of the time vs. zones, but the difference here is what Toney can do once he’s beaten it. Juju served as an effective option to pick up first downs and keep chains moving, while the dream is Toney makes those catches and turns them into chunk plays and touchdowns. Health and attitude will be huge factors, as will the development of second-year player Skyy Moore, who could potentially block Toney’s path to snaps out of the slot. Kansas City’s receiver room is crowded; Toney and Moore are joined by Richie James, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson. Toney has more pure talent than just about all of them except possibly Moore, but he’s had his fair share of coaching clashes in just two largely unproductive NFL seasons.

Due to the injury and attitude red flags, Toney is probably going to be a pretty discounted player come draft day. However, the competition is not incredibly stiff if he can rein in his worst impulses, especially since Moore can line up anywhere on the field. The combination of Toney’s insane athletic ability, and Mahomes’ ability to place the ball in positions for Toney to capitalize on that talent is super exciting from a fantasy perspective. The Chiefs are dying for a big play complement to Kelce’s steady dominance, and Toney certainly profiles as a player who can step up.